627
FXUS63 KFGF 261146
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
646 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain and drizzle today, spreading more east of the Red
  River after mid morning today. Rain arrives Monday and ends
  Tuesday morning, with potential for 1 inch or more of rain in
  some areas. These rain events may impact outdoor activities
  and harvest.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Light rain, drizzle and low clouds have advanced northward as
expected. Light rain will continue much of the day with the band
transitioning more east of the Red River after mid morning.
Still though with low clouds could be drizzle in eastern ND this
morning once the rain area moves thru. Kept messaging the same
with the focus for heavier rainfall (probs 1 inch or more)
roughly Jamestown-Grand Forks-Baudette zone. Though this zone of
higher qpf is subject to change as models do differ a bit.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...Synopsis...

Ridging over the Upper Midwest will continue to pull east
tonight, with a shortwave lifting into the Northern Plains. That
shortwave will head off into northern MN/Ontario tomorrow, with
southwesterly flow aloft behind it into the upcoming weekend.
Another, stronger shortwave will come out into the region
Monday, with the main upper trough axis arriving in the Rockies
or western Plains by Tuesday. The second shortwave will help
push an inverted surface trough and frontal boundary through the
forecast area early next week. Near zonal to southwesterly flow
setting up for mid-week. After that the ensemble members are all
over the place. The majority (37 percent) of the long range
solutions keep the Northern Plains in southwesterly flow aloft,
but there are a couple of other clusters with either broad
ridging or even northwesterly flow. With fairly high uncertainty
will keep the blended solution of low POPs and near average
temperatures.

...Rain tonight/tomorrow and again Monday/Tuesday...

Shortwave will move in from the southwest tonight and provide
some lift for light rain to develop in warm air advection.
Highest probability of rainfall amounts are around the tenth of
an inch to perhaps a quarter of an inch range. However, with
some weak MU CAPE of up to 500 J/kg, can`t completely rule out
some convective cells with heavier amounts. The decent pressure
gradient will bring some fairly breezy winds and with showers
aiding mix down can`t completely rule out some gusts up to 30
mph or so at times. A bit of a break on Sunday, then the
stronger system arrives early next week. Still some slight
variations in the exact track, but seem to be converging on a
solution with deformation band precipitation setting up over
northeastern ND and northwestern MN. Probabilities of amounts
over 1 inch in this area are 60 to 70 percent, and there is even
some 20 to 30 percent probabilities of over 2 inches Monday into
Tuesday. A soaking rain seems likely, although could still be
some variations in exactly where the heaviest amounts set up
before the period arrives.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

IFR conditions either from low clouds, vsby or both today into
this evening for all areas. May see some clearing overnight in
from the west thru DVL and possibly to the Red River late
tonight. Issue is if clearing would occur, fog is likely not far
behind.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Riddle