872
FXUS63 KFGF 221957
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
157 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold weather advisory for parts of Northwest Minnesota tonight.

- On and off snow showers through tonight then another shot of
accumulating snow Friday into Saturday.

- A breezy next several days as warmer air is ushered in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

...Synopsis...

A transient upper flow pattern will bring multiple chances for snow
with a more focus shot on Friday and Saturday. Mean northwest flow
behind todays cold front will maintain transient shortwave ridging
and troughing with the former leading to increasing temperatures by
Friday. However first we have to deal with one more cold night as
post cold front temperatures plummet back below 0F tonight for all
and below -10F for much of northwest Minnesota and parts of far
northeast North Dakota. Light but persistent winds of 5-10 mph
overnight along with lows in negative 15 to 20 range will lead to
wind chills near -30 in northwest Minnesota overnight before
improving by the mid morning Thursday. As such will go ahead with
yet another cold weather advisory to account for this threat of
hazardous wind chills. Thankfully this will be the last of the wind
chills to speak for the next week.

- Snow chances

HCR`s and scattered snow showers will linger into tonight with a low
chance they continue into Thursday morning as weak WAA aloft and
steep low level lapse rates provide enough lift to continue the
light snow. Not thinking much additional accumulation if any but
could see a dusting yet in the next several hours... not that winds
wont drift things into the nearest sheltered area anyways as they
remain a steady 15-20 mph through the early evening. As clearing
works into northwest Minnesota and eventually the Valley and eastern
North Dakota things will taper off with snow showers unlikely to
still be around except in the far west possibly by sunrise.

The next noteworthy snow chance then arrive Friday as a steady warm
air advection ahead of an incoming shortwave brings what looks to be
good chances for a widespread 0.05 to 0.10" of QPF with SLR squarely
10-15 to 1 for the majority of heaviest QPF (20-1 for any backside
flurries) a widespread 0.5 to 1.0 is likely with a medium chance for
up to 2" (40% in northwest Minnesota) should QPF overachieve.

- Warmer Air

Low level thermal ridging will build in amid westerly low level
flow. this will cause a much warmer airmass than has been seen the
past several days with highs in the 20s and 30s through the middle
of next week. With this could come more snow showers as low level
warm advection couples with passing shortwaves and vorticity
advection though there is low confidence in any given day on actual
snow chances. EFI also hints at well above average low level
flow with winds frequently gusting over 20 mph through the
weekend into early next week though the chance a wind advisory
any given day appears to be low as of now.

Clusters begin to show disagreement regarding large scale
pattern evolution towards next Wednesday with a cutoff low over
southern california ejecting through the four corners into the
central CONUS. This could send a further surge of warm air our
way or end up increasing precip chances as upper level flow
shifts around the deep layer troughing. Either way once we get
through tonight it looks like a much deserved warmup is in
store.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Snow showers and BLSN will periodically reduce vis below 1/2 SM
mainly in FAR/GFK/ and TVF through 00z through in between snow
showers vis 2-4SM at the worst. Winds north 20kts gusting near
30 through 00z with ceilings variable from IFR/MVFR to VFR
further north along the intl border where blowing snow plumes
area the only cigs. Tending to think things will break up
overnight and lead to more widespread VFR but could stay socked
into MVFR as well.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for
     MNZ004>006-008-009-013>017-022>024.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT