581
FXUS63 KFGF 141817
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
117 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers continue through the afternoon.

- Widespread rain likely late Wednesday through Friday. The
  heaviest rainfall amounts are most likely in the northwestern
  portions of the area where a 50% chance for 0.75" or more of
  rainfall exists.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...Synopsis...

Persistent Pacific moisture continues to feed into our area this
afternoon with solid isentropic ascent contributing to ongoing
showers across our area. This will continue for the remainder of
the afternoon but should diminish around sunset for the most
part as stronger forcing exits the region. Drizzle cannot be
ruled out overnight but forcing appears weak enough that this
shouldn`t be an issue. Regardless, impacts will be minor from
this.

Attention will turn towards the currently landfalling upper low
over the southern California coastline, which will begin to lift
towards our region Wednesday afternoon. Strong synoptic forcing
combined with intermittent frontogenesis will facilitate solid
rainfall across the region, particularly close to the main track
of the low. Ensemble guidance has honed in on mainly a more
westerly track for our area, placing the axis of heaviest
rainfall from the James River Valley up through the Devils Lake
Basin. This means that the heaviest rainfall amounts for our
area will most likely fall within the Devils Lake Basin, with
total rainfall estimates pushing close to an inch in some
locations. Totals will diminish as you progress further south
and east away from the forcing where rainfall amounts will fall
closer to a few tenths.

Rain should exit the area by Friday at the latest, giving a
brief period for warmer than normal conditions as large scale
ridging in a highly amplified pattern sets in behind the upper
low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Scattered showers will continue through the day today beneath
VFR conditions. Rain will diminish after 6 PM for all TAF sites,
but drizzle could continue through the evening and overnight
hours. Ceilings will progressively lower, particularly the
further south and west you go, to MVFR and potentially IFR at
DVL. Winds will remain unidirectional from the east, although
directions may vary at times since wind speeds are fairly weak
and below 8 knots.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...Perroux