329
FXUS63 KFGF 120900
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...


- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for critical fire weather in
  eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota today into this
  evening.  May need to be extended thru tonight into Tuesday.

- Widespread rain Wednesday night though Friday with a low (5%)
  chance for severe weather Wednesday late afternoon?early
  evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

...Synopsis...

Center of heat and dry airmass will remain over eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota today and Tuesday. For today
expect very similar conditions from Sunday with highs 95 to 100
in the Red River valley from Fargo northward. Hot air may expand
a bit north into Manitoba as well as low pressure moves out of
southwest Manitoba by morning and warm front lifts farther
north. For winds today, wind advisory for E ND (except DVL
basin) and for the RRV and northwest MN. Area of max wind gusts
and best mixing in a corridor from Valley City and Fargo to
Grand Forks thru Thief River Falls to Hallock and Roseau where
mixing to 800 mb is likely midday and aftn where winds are 40
kts. Winds abv 800 mb are less so even if mixed higher up think
there is a limit to how strong of winds can mix down. DVL basin
out of the main wind corridor (in terms of strongest winds) and
no advisory there. However all areas to see RH values into the
teens so red flag warnings for all of the fcst area today. For
grids, went a lot toward continuity form past forecast and
blends of NBM10 and NBM25 for dew pt and NBM 75 and NBM90 for
temps esp north and central RRV.

Breezy south winds again tonight due to 35-40 kt low level jet
For coord did go some toward NBM which allows temps to drop in
to the mid-upr 60s but dew pts are such that even at those
temps RH values remain in the mid 30s at night for most areas.
Therefore like the current time period, the red flag may be
extended thru the night for many areas based on past discussions
with MIFC.

Tuesday will be similar to Monday. Sfc low to work northeast
thru western ND into far SE Saskatchewan and SW Manitoba
Tuesday. This will keep the forecast area in the hot and dry
sector.

In terms of precipitation chances....they look to remain west of
our area, but some indications that Tuesday evening a few high
based showers or t-storms may form into central ND and may brush
our western fcst area as low in Manitoba moves more northeast
and drags a wind shift boundary eastward. NBM pops likely a tad
too far east but will leave as pops into the RRV are low (20
pct) vs 30-40 pct Devils Lake/Cando.

...Rain and thunderstorm chance Wednesday to Friday...

Main 500 mb will move into far eastern SD, southwest MN Thursday
aftn. Ahead of this will be an area of 60 dews pts that is
forecast to spread north-northweset from western Iowa thru
eastern SD into parts of far south central ND by 00z Thu.
MUCAPE 1500 to 2000 j/kg in that narrow axis from east of
Bismarck to Huron SD but only briefly 21z Wed to 03z Thu period.
SPC day 3 marginal does include this area from SC ND into E SD.
Band of t-storms should rotate east and northeast thru the fcst
area Wed night but instability will be weaker and thus severe
chance in our forecast area is around 5 pct at this time.

As upper low moves north-nordtheast toward Duluth by Friday 12z
widespread rain and much cooler air will invade eastern ND/RRV
Thursday into Friday. NBM probs for 1 inch or more of rain in
eastern ND is 45-55 percent for the 48 hour period ending 12z
Sat.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across
eastern ND and northwest MN, with the main uncertainty related
to blowing dust and haze, with better chances during the daytime
periods of higher gusts (though impacts at TAF sites still carry
a low predictability horizon). Source regions will vary and we
will monitor/amend based on trends. A strong low level jet
early in the TAF period will result in low level wind shear
around 50kt from the south. Winds remain elevated above 12kt
for the majority of the region through the TAF period, with the
strongest winds in eastern ND and far northwest MN (including
KTVF) during the afternoon period of Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025


Very unusual to see RH values in the 20-30 percent range at 08z
anytime of year. Winds gusting to 40 mph in Gwinner, likely off
the Sisseton Hills. Another day just like Sunday with RH values
in the teens all areas and wind gusts to 35-45 mph in most
areas, lowest Cando area and Wadena MN area. Brief gusts near 50
mph possible. Thus red flag conditions all areas today into this
evening. Another warm and breezy night tonight (Mon night) so
may need to see extension of red flag into tonight. With Tuesday
being similar to Monday being similar to Sunday, likely chances
for an extension of red flag conditions thru Tuesday.


Finally Thursday will see widespread precitation and cooler
temps suppressing the fire weather threat for late week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Record High Temperatures:

May 12 (Monday):
NWS FGF/UND: 95/1900
KGFK: 91/1977
KFAR: 96/1900
KPKD: 89/1906
KBDE: 85/1991

May 13 (Tuesday):
NWS FGF/UND: 92/1932
KGFK: 93/1977
KFAR: 95/1894
KPKD: 91/1900
KBDE: 88/1932

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for NDZ006-007-014-015.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...DJR
FIRE WEATHER...Riddle/TT
CLIMATE...TT