622
FXUS63 KFGF 071010
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
410 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Monday: 70 percent chance of more than 1 inch of snow in far
  northeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. 50 percent
  chance more than 2 inches in the same area.

- Stronger low coming in on Tuesday, with an 80 percent chance
  for at least minor impacts area wide, and some mixed
  precipitation possible in southeastern North Dakota,


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...Synopsis...

High pressure at 08z this morning near Rugby-Jamestown region
and moving southeast. Cirrus clouds spreading east into areas
west of the Red River valley and these cirrus clouds will spread
east thru the early morning with clear sky ahead of them.
Temperatures a mix of teens and single digits below zero.

Today will see a north-south located short wave that is central
Montana at 08z move quickly east with mid level warm advection
ahead of it generating a band of light snow. Overall light snow
area diminishes as it moves into eastern ND and the Red River
valley this afternoon and evening. Highest chances for a half
inch or so of snow is southeast ND.

...Monday clipper...

Monday low pressure, clipper system develops southwest of
Saskatoon tonight and moves southeast to near the Manitoba/North
Dakota, Saskatchewan border area by 18z Monday to near Grand
Forks by 00z Tue then to in be north of the low track thru
particularly north of DVL-GFK-FSE-PKD line. Probs for more than
2 inches is around 50 percent in far northwest MN. Looks like a
quick period of frontogenetical forcing and 850-700 layer warm
advection along with a moderate strength 700-500 mb system to
aid in snow development.

...Tuesday Stronger System...

Still a few differences with exact track of sfc-850 mb low and
zone between where temps will rise above 32F and where the are
in the 20s. Canadian Global 00z and 06z Canadian Regional operational
runs went farther south with low tracking southeast from saw far
northeast Montana to just north of Bismarck to near Wahpeton
with axis of higher snowfall Estevan SK to Minot to Fargo.
Whereas the operational 00z runs of GFS and ECMWF and its 00z
ensembles are a bit more north and close to previous runs with
consensus track of low from east of Estevan to in between Grand
Forks and Fargo and highest snow chances in that area from
Bottineau to Grand Forks to Park Rapids where there is a 50-70
pct chance of more than 3 inches and 25 pct chance isolated
pockets of more than 6 inches. Consensus snowfall from NBM and
the GFS/ECMWF ensembles keep totals averaging 4-5 inches in this
band. Track of low and 850 mb low critical as there will be a
potential esp Tuesday morning for freezing rain in a zone just
near or south of low track from NW into SE ND, though that icing
potential diminishes in the aftn into MN. Timing of snow, looks
to arrive into DVl region by 15z Tues and into RRV by 18z and
eastern fcst area by 21z. Good frontogenetical forcing noted in
850 mb warm advection zone just east and northeast of low track
as it moves southeast. Strongest winds and cold advection will
be west and southwest of sfc low/850 mb low which places best
chances for 50 mph or higher wind gusts southwest half of ND
into SD. But still a period of north winds align mid and
southern valley in the evening with gust 30-40 mph. But these
winds dont align to where the heavier snow is forecast and is
more in the area where forecast temps are to reach above 32F
during the day Tuesday.





&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1112 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through 18z of the
TAF period. As the surface high moves off early tomorrow
afternoon, southeasterly winds will increase at DVL/GFK/FAR.
Accompanying this by late afternoon will be falling ceilings,
likely to MVFR depending on the track of a system moving from
northwest to southeast. Accompanying this will be a broad swath
of light snowfall that will push visibilities down to 2-4SM. The
bulk of guidance keeps the main portions of this system west,
however a few ensemble members do push the system as far east as
FAR/GFK. Should a further easterly scenario arise, expect
widespread MVFR ceilings and visibility at DVL/GFK/FAR while a
further west solution will allow for those TAF sites to remain
VFR. Regardless, the reasonable worst case scenario for these
TAF sites will be prevailing MVFR conditions with a low chance
for brief IFR conditions.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Perroux