122
FXUS63 KFGF 070938
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
338 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next rain chance is Saturday afternoon thru midday Sunday with
  a 40-50 percent chance of more than 0.10 inches in west
  central Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...Synopsis...

West to southwest wind at the sfc up thru 850 mb along with
drier airmass moving in at 950-800mb is finally sending the
lower clouds and low level moisture (fog) east. Clearing trends
will take it into the far NW MN and thru the northern and
central RRV by 11z and then thru all of the valley and leaving
the areas from Bemidji to Fergus Falls with lower clouds by 14z.

With increased sun and a westerly wind will see a boost in temps
with highs upper 40s to low 50s this aftn.

Tonight will see a short wave move ESE thru northern Manitoba
into NW Ontario and a weak sfc trough move through and on Friday
winds will be lighter but airmass remains dry so do expect a
mainly sunny day. Highs on Friday low to mid 50s.

This weekend will see upper low in New Mexico move northeast
into southern MN by 12z Sun. Deeper moisture with this system
will remain south and east of upper low but there will be an
area of light rain northwest of the upper low moving thru E
ND/NW and WC MN with best rain chances in the 18z Sat to 18z Sun
period. GFS/ECMWF 00z ensembles show around 70-80 pct chance of
more than 0.10 inch in west central MN trailing to around 40 pct
in Grand Forks with about 20 pct chance of more than 0.25 inch
in west central MN. Temps warm enough for all liquid. NBM probs
are a bit less with 40-50 pct chance of 0.10 inch or more in
west central MN and a 5 pct chance for 0.25 inch or more.

Brief 500 mb ridging moves in behind this short wave ahead of
another short wave that will track into the southern Rockies and
and toward Minnesota around Nov 13th. 00z ECMWF is considerably
strong with this than 00z GFS while 00z Canadian global doesnt
have this system at all. NBM brings in chance pops for this and
temps while cooler look to be warm enough for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

MVFR ceilings lingering for a bit longer, although some sucker
holes already showing up in places will bounce conditions
between MVFR and VFR for the next few hours. Conditions should
improve to VFR by morning. Light and variable winds becoming
southwest overnight taking longest in eastern areas especially
BJI. Winds become west at 15-20kts gusting 25+kts in the
afternoon across all but BJI Thursday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR/TT