839
FXUS63 KFGF 142330
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
630 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers continue through the afternoon.

- Widespread rain likely late Wednesday through Friday. The
  heaviest rainfall amounts are most likely in the northwestern
  portions of the area where a 50% chance for 0.75" or more of
  rainfall exists.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Showers are largely beginning to wane with just a few echos
remaining in the Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota with
minimal actual accumulation to come. Temperatures only dropping
into the upper 30s tonight so even if roads do remain wet at all
not expecting any slick spots to develop.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...Synopsis...

Persistent Pacific moisture continues to feed into our area this
afternoon with solid isentropic ascent contributing to ongoing
showers across our area. This will continue for the remainder of
the afternoon but should diminish around sunset for the most
part as stronger forcing exits the region. Drizzle cannot be
ruled out overnight but forcing appears weak enough that this
shouldn`t be an issue. Regardless, impacts will be minor from
this.

Attention will turn towards the currently land falling upper
low over the southern California coastline, which will begin to
lift towards our region Wednesday afternoon. Strong synoptic
forcing combined with intermittent frontogenesis will facilitate
solid rainfall across the region, particularly close to the
main track of the low. Ensemble guidance has honed in on mainly
a more westerly track for our area, placing the axis of heaviest
rainfall from the James River Valley up through the Devils Lake
Basin. This means that the heaviest rainfall amounts for our
area will most likely fall within the Devils Lake Basin, with
total rainfall estimates pushing close to an inch in some
locations. Totals will diminish as you progress further south
and east away from the forcing where rainfall amounts will fall
closer to a few tenths.

Rain should exit the area by Friday at the latest, giving a
brief period for warmer than normal conditions as large scale
ridging in a highly amplified pattern sets in behind the upper
low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions currently should slowly become MVFR tonight with
ceilings around 3000 ft with pockets closer to 2000. Winds
generally SE at 5-8kts so thinking some isolated fog in eastern
north Dakota as moist upslope flow continues is possible but low
confidence. Otherwise with rain ending it will really just be a
night of monitoring for cigs dropping further than expected and
amending as needed.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...TT