700
FXUS63 KFGF 281833
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1233 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front brings strong winds this morning into the
  afternoon hours, with widespread gust over 45mph (Wind
  Advisory) and localized gusts over 58mph in the Red River
  Valley (High Wind Warning).

- Chance for snow squalls with the passage of the cold front
  this morning, these typically cause whiteouts and rapidly
  changing travel conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Winds have started coming down across the northern portions of
the forecast area, so have downgraded the warning to an advisory
and cancelled the advisory out of the Devils Lake Basin. The
advisory expires at 19Z for portions of northwest and west
central MN, and although there are still a few gusts up to
around 40 to 45 mph, will probably let those counties expire on
time. For now will keep the rest of the Red River Valley and
southeastern ND in wind advisory criteria as there are still
some gusts to 40 mph continuing.


UPDATE Issued at 1003 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Cold front has moved through the CWA and there has been plenty
of wind with some gusts to 50 kts in some places. Will continue
to keep the headlines going. Some horizontal convective rolls
have developed and produced some snow showers that have reduced
visibility down for a short period. However, they are in and out
and not producing any accumulation. Adjusted to continue snow
shower mention a bit longer.

UPDATE
Issued at 532 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

CAA is starting to move into the northern Red River Valley this
morning, with winds increasing out of the north. The cold front
is situated across the northern Red River Valley, with radar
picking up on some reflectivity just north of Grand Forks. We
have not had any visibility reductions yet and continue to
monitor for the chance of snow squalls. As of right now, winds
are strong as gusts have already reached up to 50mph along the
International Border. Winds will continue to increase as the
cold air shifts down.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...Synopsis...

Ridging is dominating over the western United States while we have a
trough digging into central Canada moving southeast into the Great
Lakes through the next 24 to 48 hours. This generates a
northwesterly flow aloft, with a strong LLJ developing over the
northern plains. A strong cold front pushes down from Canada this
morning and afternoon. Strong CAA behind the cold front combined
with steep low level lapse rates increase our winds through this
morning and into the early afternoon. We are already starting to
see this transpire, with gusts already reaching up to 45mph across
eastern ND and into NW MN. Strong winds impact eastern ND and into
NW MN, with localized gusts over 58 mph in the Red River
Valley. Chance for snow squalls along the leading edge of the
front will be possible. Temperatures drop behind the front, with
a return to more seasonal temps by Saturday. This will be brief
as we transition to split flow aloft and weak ridging late
weekend and into early next week. This funnels warm air into the
region and well above normal temperatures. Highs on Monday
reach the lower 40s where snowpack is higher and the low to mid
50s where little to no snow is located (Red River Valley and
west central MN). Increased chances for precip next week as flow
returns to northwesterly.

...High Winds Today...

Surface trough is moving southeast through Manitoba/Ontario into the
Great Lakes this morning, with strong northwesterly winds across
eastern ND and into NW MN. Current observations show strong 925mb
cold air advection back into central Manitoba that will move south
into the Red River Valley this morning. Steep low level lapse rates,
strong cold air advection, frontogentic forcing, northerly winds,
and a LLJ at 925mb all help bring strong winds to the region. The
strongest of the winds will be tied to the Red River Valley and to
the initial surge of cold air advection. These areas are under a
High Wind Warning through 5pm, with localized gusts over 58mph.
Areas outside of the valley will still see strong winds, with
gusts up to 55mph (Wind Advisory Area). There will be a chance
for blowing dust and snow that may create reduced visibilities
at times due to the strong winds. Confidence remains low on if
we can get any blowing dust or snow due to the crust of the
snowpack and any fields that are wet from the melting over the
past several days. Thus, chances are low for blowing dust and
blowing snow to impact the area at this time.

Travel will be impacted from the strong northerly winds, especially
for areas in the Red River Valley. Timing of the highest winds are
expected this morning and into the early part of the afternoon, with
a gradual trend downward by the mid afternoon.

After the front passes there will be chance for horizontal
convective rolls (HCRS) to develop. Timing, intensity, and location
are low in confidence, but any development behind the front brings
the chance for quickly reduced visibilities and hazardous travel
conditions. We will continue to monitor for any chance of HCRS post
front. Winds diminish by the evening and overnight hours, with
temperatures dropping to the negative single digits near the
International Border and single digits further south.

...Snow Squall Chances...

When looking at latest CAMs there is a signal for snow squalls to
move down from Canada towards the south this morning. Snow squall
parameter has been highlighting a timeframe of development around
4am to 6am and starting along the International Border. We already
have strong CAA at 925mb within central Canada, with the winds
starting to switch from the NW toward the north. Mean flow across
the area is from the NNW, with a strong LLJ at 925mb. SB CAPE ranges
from 10-20 J/kg according to latest guidance along the cold front,
with strong frontogentic forcing shifting south. BL profiles
continue to show steep low level lapse rates of 8-9.5 C/km along the
front. Environmental conditions support the chance for snow squalls,
but there is still a level of uncertainty on the exact timing, where
or if it can develop as the front pushes down from Canada. Timeframe
at this time is 4am to 6am for development reaching Grand Forks to
Fargo around 6am to 9am, and southern Red River Valley post 9am.

In this situation, we are in a wait and see period to see any
materialization of a snow squall. In any snow squall, conditions do
change rapidly, with sharply reduced visibility and treacherous
travel conditions. Have a way to receive warnings this morning
especially when traveling around the area and give your self time to
reach destinations.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

A mix of MVFR and sometimes VFR ceilings as convective snow
showers go in and out of the airport areas. That trend will
continue through the afternoon hours, with some visibility down
to 2SM at times, but mostly 3-5SM or unrestricted. Winds that
are gusting above 35 kts from the northwest will begin to slowly
decrease later this afternoon and evening. Eventually should see
gusts go down to less than 30 kts after 21Z and conditions go
to VFR. Winds will continue to decrease overnight, eventually
becoming light and variable.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for NDZ008-016-024-
     026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-022-027-029>031-040.
     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ016-017-023-
     024-028-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR/Spender
DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...JR