794
FXUS63 KFGF 140432
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1132 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances Tuesday through Friday could impact the ongoing
  harvest. There is a 50 percent chance of 0.75 inches or
  higher, especially in northeast North Dakota.

&&

UPDATE
Issued at 952 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Temperatures are quickly dropping tonight as expected with
widespread upper 30s and even a few already hitting freezing.
Expecting much of the region to fall into the low 30s or even
upper 20s. While all areas have already seen a killing freeze
this season we do understand some gardeners may still be
trying to milk the last of the warmish fall days, so with that
in mind this at least looks to be the last widespread freeze
at least until the weekend.

UPDATE
Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Made some tweaks to pops for Tuesday mainly for timing and
coverage based on some initial dry air on the northern side of
the QPF. Overall still expecting a trace for all with up to a
tenth across areas south of HWY 200. Not much more than enough
to settle the harvest dust and maybe keep crops a little too wet
to keep combines in the field for the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...Synopsis...

Surface high pressure continues to settle into the Northern Plains
this afternoon and evening, with winds slowly diminishing. Look for
generally light winds through the overnight hours and into Tuesday
morning. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the upper 20s
along the International Border southward to about the Hwy 200
corridor. Further south, lows tonight fall into the mid to upper
30s. Highs for Tuesday and Wednesday reach the upper 40s to mid 50s
before warmer temps return for Thursday and Friday.

...Rain Chances This Week...

Rain chances increase on Tuesday as southwest flow continues to
bring shortwaves into the region ahead of a slow moving upper low.
The best chances for rain will be in southeast North Dakota and the
southern portions of the Red River Valley for Tuesday. Rain chances
then diminish slightly through around midday Wednesday before
increasing heading into the evening and overnight period across
central and northeast North Dakota. This pattern supports additional
rain chances on Thursday and Friday before the upper low moves to
the east heading into Saturday. Overall, there is a 50 percent
chance for 0.75 inches of rain with this system, with the best
chances being in central and northeast North Dakota.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR tonight with winds slowly veering northerly to easterly by
mid morning Tuesday. Some rain will move from south to north
mainly impacting DVL, FAR, and GFK in the afternoon with lower
confidence for TVF and BJI. Main impact will be lowering cigs
from some high scatted cirrus tonight to widespread BKN/OVC at
4-6kt by this 21-00z tomorrow. MVFR could looks at least
somewhat likely for FAR and DVL though if timing ends up a
little slower then the TAFS as written will certainly be on the
optimistic side.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT