677
FXUS63 KFGF 080113
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
713 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A widespread 3-6" is expected along and south of I-94/HWY-10 with
higher totals of 6-8" along the tri-state area.

- Dangerously cold wind chills as low as minus 40 to 50 next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Snow continues to spread through the southern and central Red
River Valley into west central MN this evening. Current
mesoanalysis indicates a stronger area of 700mb frontogensis
extending across the far southern Red River valley towards
south central North Dakota. Areas in south central ND have
already seen up to 9.5 inches, while areas in Ransom and Sargent
have seen up to 3 inches so far. CAMs continue to show the
higher mesoscale banding remaining along and south of the I-94
corridor through the evening hours and into tonight, with areas
seeing up to an inch per hour for snowfall rates. We are
continuing to watch the stronger band in south central ND as it
works eastward through the evening and monitor the latest
snowfall rates. None the less we can`t rule out some areas
seeing locally higher amounts over 8 inches near the southern
Red River Valley and west central Minnesota. A few areas may
even see up to 10 inches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...Synopsis...

Currently it is beginning to snow along the SD/ND border as a sfc
cyclone deepens in MT and works east along a baroclinic zone with
reports already topping 4-6" in western Bismarck where conditions
have seemingly over performed what was expected to this point.
Mesoscale banding focus around 850-700mb will continue to be the
main driver of today/tonights snowfall with transient band evolving
into more of a training band. This is forecast to set up along the
SD/ND border extending into west central MN. Heaviest rates look to
occur between 8pm to 4am with rates anywhere from 1/2 to 1 inch per
hour south of the I-94/HWY-10 corridor. North of this corridor a
deformation band will setup at 850-700mb blocking northward moisture
and capping snowfall amounts further north.

One peculiar aspect of this event will be the depth of the DGZ
allowing f-gen to nearly without question to exist withing the
primary dendrite formation zone increasing SLR to a system average
in the 18-20:1 territory. With guidance indicating a very high
confidence of 0.30 to 0.40" of QPF and these the floor for snowfall
in the heaviest areas seems to 5-7" roughly with pockets of 8" or
more possible if banding can become particularly stationary. Overall
a widespread 3-5 inches is expected from HWY 200 south with 1-3
inches as far north as HWY 2. Any totals exceeding 6" look to be
south of 94/10.

- Extreme cold

While a not a particularly warm airmass this weekend will still feel
mild compared to the incoming temps for the work week. EFI and NAEFS
fail to really outline anything notable about the incoming cold
especially compared to that which was experience a few weeks ago.
While this may initially give one the false impression one that it
wont be as cold you would likely be incorrect. Lows forecast to be
in the minus 20s both Tuesday and Thursday mornings (subject to
change obviously) with daily minimum wind chills in the minus 30s
and 40s. It remains uncertain exactly how cold any morning will be
but headlines most days seem probable... just gotta get past this
snow storm tonight before we can fully focus on the next hazard.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Snow continues to move through the southern Red River Valley
this evening and continuing through the overnight hours. FAR
sees the highest chance for visibility reductions from heavy
snowfall rates. Visibilities may drop to 1/2 of a mile or less
at times this evening and overnight. BJI, GFK, and TVF will see
the chance for snow and the possibility of visibility dropping
to a few miles at times. Otherwise, BKN to OVC skies filter
through the area, with ceilings at MVFR through the overnight
period for each site, but DVL. DVL sees VFR ceilings through the
overnight period as they remain on the northern extend of the
snow and clouds. Winds will gradually turn toward the north post
12-14z, with snow exiting the region. Skies clear from the west
first around 18z reaching BJI by 22-23z. VFR conditions are
expected for all sites near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for NDZ038-039.
     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Saturday for NDZ049-052-
     053.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for MNZ003-024-
     027-028.
     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Saturday for MNZ029>032-
     040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Spender
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...Spender