862
FXUS63 KFGF 092312
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
612 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

The leading pre-frontal trough is currently crossing the Red
River Valley shifting winds to westerly. Behind that, the main
front that increases winds from the northwest is just on the
edge of western edge of the valley. As these shift eastward,
skies will clear. Minimal impacts will occur overnight as winds
on the backside of this front are not hazardous and gusts will
remain below 25 mph.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...Synopsis...

An upper trough, and associated cold front, will bring cooler and
drier air into the area this evening and overnight. Shortwave
ridging then moves quickly across the Northern Plains on Friday,
with southwest flow following into the weekend. This will bring
increased rain chances to much of eastern North Dakota, northwest,
and west central Minnesota. PWAT values increase sharply heading
into Saturday, with well over 1 inch (3-4 sigma) possible by
Saturday afternoon. An upper low is expected to form, in the Central
and Northern Plains, then lift northeastward, providing an axis of
precipitation and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Despite the
high moisture levels and strong forcing, rainfall totals look to
remain generally around or less than 0.50 inch (40-50 percent
chance. There is roughly a 40 percent chance for amounts approaching
0.75 inch, mainly in the southern Red River Valley.

For Sunday, the upper low continues to move to the east, with wrap
around moisture lingering through much of the day and into the
overnight hours. Look for generally light rain (<0.10 inch) for
portions of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. For those
to the northwest of Devils Lake, a mix of rain and snow is briefly
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

The primary aviation impact will be shifting winds over the next
several hours. Two fronts are currently working their way
eastward. The leading one will shift winds to the west for about
1-3 hours before the second front shifts winds to the northwest.
On the backside of both fronts, winds are not expected to
increase too much and gusts should not exceed 20 knots at any
TAF site. The reasonable worst case scenario for wind gusts is
20 knots.

As we progress through the day tomorrow, a surface high will
propagate eastward, diminishing winds to light and variable by
late afternoon.

VFR conditions will prevail for the entire TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Perroux