389
FXUS63 KFGF 191546
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
946 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously cold wind chills prevail today through Tuesday.
  Wind chill values ranging from 40 below zero to 55 below zero
  are expected. An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect
  through midday Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Extreme cold continues across the region. Mostly clear skies
will be expected to continue through the morning with not much
recovery in temperatures this afternoon, with highs barely
scraping the -10s, with the exception of the southern valley
which may get to -5. Impacts remain tied to the extreme cold
right now and could feature an additional minor impact from
horizontal convective rolls, however confidence is low in
impacts.

UPDATE
Issued at 723 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Surface temperatures this morning range from the teens below
zero to lower 20s below zero, with wind chills ranging from 40
below to 50 below. Winds are generally light out of the
northwest at 5-10 mph. The forecast remains on track this
morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

...Synopsis...

The synoptic pattern continues to support very cold temperatures
across much of the CONUS, with deep H5 anomalies extending into the
southeastern US. For the Northern Plains, we continue to be on the
western side of the flow pattern, meaning continued north to
northwest flow aloft. This pattern begins to modify slightly
starting late Monday into Tuesday, when an H7 trough brings a weak
ridge through the area ahead of it, allowing temperatures to
moderate heading into Tuesday. With this trough, there will be a
chance for generally light snow on Wednesday and possibly Thursday.
Another shortwave is highlighted in several ensemble members later
Thursday into Friday; however, given the overall lack of moisture,
any potential snowfall looks to be light.

...Extreme Cold Prevails Through Tuesday...

Continued CAA into the region serves to reinforce the Arctic air
mass that is bringing surface temperatures as low as 30 below zero
during the overnight periods. Wind chill values will vary from north
to south, but have the potential to fall into the 50s below zero
along the International Border, and into the 40s below zero in the
southern Red River Valley. These dangerously cold conditions are
expected to continue today through Tuesday morning before we see a
rebound in temps Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

VFR conditions prevail this morning at all TAF sites. Look for
an increase in cloud cover after around 18Z, with several
guidance sources indicating the possibility for at least
intermittent MVFR ceilings. Thus far, there is little confidence
in the extent of the stratus formation, with the best chance
showing at least a scattered deck through much of the
afternoon. TAF sites at KBJI and KTVF have the highest chance to
see more dense stratus formation, along with occasional flurries
wherever clouds are present. Winds are expected to remain
generally out of the northwest, with 10 to 15 knot winds through
much of the day before diminishing slightly this evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/Perroux
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch