782
FXUS63 KFGF 101743
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for widespread weather hazards is minimal
  through mid week.

- A potentially active weather pattern returns late this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

No major changes to the going forecast. High temperatures were
lowered just a bit as cloud cover is keeping us a bit cooler
then forecasted. Otherwise, look for smoke to be on the increase
this afternoon, first in the Devils Lake Basin, then the Red
River Valley by evening.

UPDATE
Issued at 930 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Quite the batch of smoke is evident on satellite this morning
upstream of this FA. Surface observations concur, with air
quality in the unhealthy category across the western half or so
of ND and visibilities in the 1-3 mile range. While maybe a
touch later then forecasted yesterday, this smoke will push into
eastern ND this afternoon, then NW MN during the late
afternoon/evening hours. Otherwise, adjusted grids to reflect
observations, with the rest of the forecast still on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Mostly clear skies prevail this morning everywhere except
northeastern North Dakota, where stratus is bringing mostly
cloudy conditions. Temperatures across the region are generally
in the low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...Synopsis...

Upper trough lifts to the northeast this morning with northeast flow
developing this evening. This will serve to allow Canadian wildfire
smoke to fill into the Northern Plains from west to east this
evening. Highs today will reach the middle to upper 70s. Wildfire
smoke continues to advect into the area overnight and into Monday
before diminishing late Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Another
H5 trough brings rain and isolated thunderstorm chances into the
area Monday afternoon and evening. At this time, support for strong
storms remains weak, but cannot be completely ruled out. Moving into
Tuesday, quiet weather prevails with highs generally in the upper
70s for most areas. Upper flow becomes zonal on Wednesday, then
southwesterly heading into Thursday and Friday. H7 shortwave
activity is expected to form along H5 southwesterly flow late this
week, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area Thursday and
Friday afternoons. The timing of these shortwaves will ultimately
determine the risk for hazardous weather; however, the pattern will
be supportive of the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
late this week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

MVFR ceilings have persisted through much of the morning, but
are slowly lifting. They should continue to slowly lift from
west to east. Behind the clouds, smoke will advect into the
region. Upstream visibilities have been in the MVFR range.
Therefore, added that into the TAF at KDVL and KGFK, timed out
as best as possible for when they will arrive. For other TAF
sites, its more uncertain just how dense the smoke will be by
the time it reaches them, so maintained 6SM visibility. If smoke
is as dense as it is upstream by the time it reaches KTVF and
KFAR, they also could see MVFR visibilities. Smoke should become
less dense Monday, but still persist area wide.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Rafferty