532
FXUS62 KFFC 081739
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1239 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

High pressure is centered across the central part of the country
with ridging extending all the way to the eastern seaboard. The high
center should drop south through today and then push eastward and
overhead on Thursday. The forecast will remain dry and cold with
temperatures between 5 and 15 degrees below normal.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

Key Messages:

- A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM
      Saturday.

- Significant and impactful accumulations of snow, sleet, and
   freezing rain are expected from Friday into early Saturday,
   particularly near and north of the I-20 corridor.

A significant and impactful winter storm will be on our doorstep
at the start of the long term period, and a Winter Storm Watch is
now in effect for much of north Georgia from 12Z Friday to 12Z
Saturday.

Initial light precipitation will begin to overspread the area from
west to east Friday morning as a surface low progresses eastward
along the northern coastline of the Gulf of Mexico. Models have
continued to come into focus on a more suppressed southerly low
track, which brings higher impacts locally, particularly across
north Georgia through the day on Friday into Friday night.
Confidence remains high that far north Georgia, including the north
Georgia mountains, will see a snow event given profiles remaining
below freezing throughout the column in the area removed from
significant WAA aloft. Several inches of snowfall are thus expected
for these areas, with probabilities of seeing over 4" of snowfall
trending above 50-70% across the northern counties. A heavy, wet
snow typical of southern US snow events is expected given snowfall
ratios on the order of 7:1. There is also concern for snow total
overperformance within this favored area just north of the
transition zone, leading to a higher probability of totals for
some areas reaching or exceeding 6".

Farther southward toward the I-20 corridor, including the bulk of
the Atlanta metro, a mixed bag of precipitation remains likely given
the impact of the increasing warm nose aloft by Friday afternoon.
Given the trend of a more southerly storm track, forecast snowfall
totals and associated snowfall probabilities have inched upward near
and along the I-20 corridor, representing an expected period of
snowfall during the early portion of the winter storm before a ptype
changeover occurs through the latter half of the day. The current
forecast represents a gradual mix of ptype to occur from late
afternoon into Friday evening across this zone, with areas of
freezing rain becoming more likely. Thus, ice accretion is likely
on top of any earlier snowfall that occurs. Note that if freezing
rain becomes the dominant ptype for a more extended period, more
substantial ice accumulations would lead to increased power
outage concerns. Keep in mind as well that this exact transition
area is still uncertain and will likely fluctuate through future
forecasts.

To the south of this mixed precipitation area (generally points near
and south of the southern tier of the Atlanta metro), more
substantial warm air advection will limit winter precipitation
extent and accumulation. Any initial frozen precipitation will
more quickly transition over to liquid rainfall by afternoon.

Precipitation will gradually end from west to east by Saturday
morning. Travel impacts are very likely to linger through Saturday
across north Georgia as temperatures will struggle to rise very much
above freezing Saturday afternoon, particularly in areas with a
significant snowpack. Even within areas that melting occurs,
refreezing will be quick as temperatures plummet well below freezing
(into the teens) Saturday night.

Temperatures then remain well below normal through the remainder
of the forecast period with highs mainly in the 30s and 40s in
north Georgia and 50s in central Georgia while lows remain well
below freezing.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

Some high clouds streaming across the area but mostly clear skies
expected. NW winds in the 8-12kt range with gust to 25kt to start
this TAF period. The wind speeds diminish to 10kt or less by
00z-01z No precipitation or restrictions to VSBYs expected.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          46  22  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         41  22  42  28 /   0   0   0  10
Blairsville     36  14  40  21 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    40  18  42  24 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus        48  23  49  29 /   0   0   0  20
Gainesville     43  23  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           49  23  48  26 /   0   0   0  10
Rome            40  18  42  24 /   0   0   0  10
Peachtree City  44  20  45  26 /   0   0   0  20
Vidalia         52  25  49  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning
for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>038-041>048-052>055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...01