784
FXUS62 KFFC 081832
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
232 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Key Messages:

 - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms each afternoon. A few
   storms on Wednesday could become severe, capable of producing
   damaging wind gusts.

 - Heat index values between 100-104 degrees are forecast today
   and Wednesday afternoon.

Mid-level troughing extends from the northern Great Lakes
southward through the Mississippi River Valley is expected to
slowly progress eastward through the short term period and towards
the end of the work week. Deep atmospheric moisture transport is
ongoing into the Southeast within southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of the trough and along the western side of the Bermuda high at
the surface. Dewpoints have increased into the upper 60s to low
70s and precipitable water values have increased to between 1.5
and 2 inches, accordingly. High temperatures this afternoon are
expected to rise into the low to mid 90s across most of the
forecast area, with the warmest temperatures expected to the south
of the I-85 corridor. These temperatures and aforementioned
dewpoints will combine for heat index values between 100-104
degrees in all but the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia.
A few spots in east-central Georgia could furthermore briefly
exceed 105 in the peak heating hours. A series of shortwave
disturbances rounding the base of the broader troughing pattern
and the moist airmass will support the return of diurnally driven
convection each afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
have developed over the last couple of hours, with PoPs forecast
to range from 30-40 percent across the majority of the area this
afternoon. A few storms could be strong and capable of frequent
lightning and gusty winds, though severe weather looks unlikely
overall today.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be a couple of degrees "cooler"
across north and central Georgia given the increased rain chances
and associated cloud cover. Highs are expected to rise into the
upper 80s to low 90s in all but the higher elevations of far
northeast Georgia, which will remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
With steadily increasing atmospheric moisture, dewpoints will
continue their climb into the low to mid 70s and precipitable
water values will range from 1.7 to 2.1 inches. In spite of the
lower high temperatures, greater humidity will allow heat index
"feels like" temperatures to reach maximum values of 100-104
degrees once again on Wednesday afternoon.

As atmospheric moisture content increases, so too will the coverage
of thunderstorms. Diurnal thunderstorms are expected to develop by
the late Wednesday morning within an unstable and weakly capped
environment, becoming numerous in coverage (PoPs of 60-70 percent)
through the afternoon hours. SBCAPE values are anticipated to be
higher than this afternoon, ranging from 1500-2500 J/kg with the
highest values in central Georgia. High PWATs will also favor precip
loading in downdrafts, bringing stronger winds aloft down to the
surface. Because of this, the SPC has diagnosed a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for severe weather across the majority of north and
central Georgia. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with
any severe thunderstorms that occur. All thunderstorms, even those
below severe criteria, will also be capable of producing frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Key Messages:

    - More widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage can be
      expected from Thursday into Friday before more typical
      isolated to scattered coverage returns from the weekend
      into early next week.

    - Temperatures will be somewhat cooler late week, before
      increasing back toward the mid 90s by early next week with heat
      index values also back on the increase.

The ongoing shift back to a stormier weather pattern will have fully
taken hold by Thursday. Broad mid-level troughing will remain across
the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, deep Gulf moisture will be in place
across the area, characterized by PWATs of 1.75 to 2", which
climatologically speaking is in the 90th percentile ballpark for
this time of year. Disturbances traversing to the north of our area
will serve to enhance convective coverage during the afternoon and
evening hours. PoPs will thus run well above climatological
averages, especially Thursday and Friday. While widespread severe
concerns are not expected, strong to isolated severe thunderstorms
would be possible within this regime, primarily bringing a downburst
wind threat. Additionally, given the anomalously moist
environment, locally heavy rainfall could also lead to at least
spotty flash flooding concerns, particularly beneath any slow-
moving thunderstorms.

This pattern will begin to shift by the weekend as subtropical
ridging will begin to expand across the Southeast, especially
heading into early next week. Even so, deep moisture will remain
entrenched beneath the ridge, resulting in isolated scattered
diurnal convection remaining possible through early next week.
Despite this lingering afternoon storm potential, temperatures will
likely begin to creep back upward by early next week given the
building influence of the ridge.

Speaking of temperatures... the more widespread rainfall coverage
Thursday and Friday will help to slightly keep a lid on afternoon
highs, particularly across north Georgia where upper 80s/lower 90s
are more likely. Given the very humid airmass in place, however,
heat index values will still likely run as high as 100-104 degrees
across portions of Middle and east central Georgia where convective
coverage will be a bit lower. As mentioned above, by the weekend
into early next week, temperatures will begin to rise again, with
mid 90s highs becoming more likely. Heat index values by this point
will need to be watched as some areas could begin to encroach on the
Heat Advisory criteria of 105.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Scattered convection has begun to develop across north/central GA,
warranting a TEMPO for TSRA from 18-22Z at all sites except for
PDK/RYY, where a PROB30 for TSRA has been maintained. Aside from
some patchy MVFR visibility restrictions in far northwest GA
(including RYY) early Wednesday morning, conditions are expected
to be VFR through the period with scattered cu between 040-060 in
the afternoon hours. Winds will be W at 4-7 kts this afternoon,
diminishing to 4 kts or less after sunset.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on coverage and timing of afternoon TSRA.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  93  72  90 /  10  60  40  70
Atlanta         74  93  73  91 /  20  60  40  80
Blairsville     66  87  65  84 /  20  70  60  90
Cartersville    72  93  71  90 /  10  60  50  80
Columbus        75  94  74  93 /  10  60  30  70
Gainesville     74  92  72  88 /  10  60  50  80
Macon           74  94  73  93 /  20  60  30  60
Rome            72  91  71  88 /  20  60  50  80
Peachtree City  72  93  71  91 /  20  60  40  70
Vidalia         75  93  73  92 /  30  70  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...King