438
FXUS62 KFFC 161847
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
247 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025



...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Key Messages:

 - High fire danger conditions for North and Central GA
   through Thursday due to low relative humidity and dry
   vegetation.

 - Warm and mostly clear skies through Thursday.

Pleasant spring weather across Georgia through at least Thursday
under dry northwest mid-level flow and surface high pressure. The
primary concern in this pattern will be fire weather, as relative
humidity values drop to around 20% across much of the area this
afternoon into early evening, which combined with dry vegetation
has prompted the issuance of a Fire Danger Statement. While winds
will be occasionally breezy out of the north-northwest, they will
generally cap out at around 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Winds
will turn out of the southeast on Thursday, potentially increasing
dewpoints (and RH) enough to avoid another Fire Danger Statement
in portions of north GA. However, areas of east-central GA will
likely see RH values fall to around 20-25% again in the afternoon.

Temperatures will climb into the upper 60s to low 70s today,
before falling into the upper 30s to low 40s overnight. Thursday
will be quite a bit warmer, with low 70s across far northern GA
and upper 70s to low 80s across the rest of central GA.

Culver


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Key Messages:

- Warming trend Friday through the weekend.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week.

The long term period will start off on Friday with a mid-/upper-
level ridge and surface high pressure over the Southeast and Ohio
River Valley. The result will be dry conditions and highs in the
80s. The ridge will begin to weaken/erode and the surface high
will shift eastward over the weekend as a mid-/upper-level trough
barrels through the Rockies and Mississippi River Valley. Saturday
is shaping up to be the hottest day of the period with highs in
the mid-80s to lower 90s. Highs on Sunday will be in the 80s, like
those on Friday. Cloud cover is expected to increase on Saturday
and Sunday amid moisture return, but expect any appreciable
forcing/lift to remain tied to a front across the MS River Valley,
associated with the aforementioned trough and an attendant low
pressure system.

The low pressure system is forecast to track northeast/north-
northeastward across the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada on
Monday and Tuesday, which will drive the system`s warm sector and
cold front across the Southeast. Given the parent low pressure
system so far to our north, not expecting much in the way of
favorable mid-/upper-level dynamics for widespread severe weather.
Ensemble guidance is depicting anywhere from a 20% chance to 60%
chance for SBCAPE to exceed 500 J/kg across much of the CWA on
Monday and Tuesday, so expect at least isolated thunderstorms both
days. Highs may moderate slightly both days (lower 80s to
mid-80s) across portions of the CWA given showers/storms and a
partly cloudy sky.

Martin


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions through the 18Z TAF period with SKC aside from
FEW200 passing over tonight. NW winds around 10 kts gusting to 20
kts will diminish to 5 kts or less after 00z. Winds gradually turn
NE by early Thursday morning, then to SE around 7-10 kts by the
afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

Culver


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          45  75  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         50  78  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     40  70  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    44  78  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        49  81  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     47  73  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           46  81  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            43  78  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  46  78  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         49  81  56  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...Culver