149
FXUS62 KFFC 141738
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
138 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 132 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

 - Dry conditions to continue with no meaningful precipitation expected
       through the second half of the week. Potential rain and
       thunderstorm chances this weekend.

    - Temperature warm through the weekend with a cool off early next
      week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Ridging and high pressure will be the main story for the short
term with dry and sunny conditions expected through the period.
As with the past couple of days, did blend in NBM10 into the
dewpoints to account for the dry air in place. With the pattern
dominated by high pressure and little to no cloud cover temps will
easily warm to the low to mid 80s today at ~10 degrees above
normal. Tomorrow will see much of the same weather with temps in
the low to mid 80s (~10 degrees above normal) and clear skies.
Morning temps in the mid to upper 50s are forecast for the next
two mornings which is still ~5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Not much has changed for the second half of the work week.
Conditions continue to look dry with ridging bringing temperatures
to around 80 degrees. A feature to watch through the period will be
the evolution of the cut-off low as it circles the upper high over
the northern Gulf. This feature will be important in conditions
Saturday night through next Monday.

As we move into mid weekend, upper level troughing over the central
CONUS drives across the Midwest into the Ohio River Valley. Ensemble
guidance shows uncertainty in the progression of the ridge-trough
wave pattern as well as the timing of the cut-off low ejection back
over The Gulf states. The cutoff low has the potential to do a few
interesting things. The first is priming of the pre-trough
environment with increased moisture and PWATs near 1.5" across the
southeast. This would be near the 75th percentile for PWATs should
this occur. Synoptic level forcing from the deep trough could also
be sufficient to drive a line of stronger thunderstorms, however in
this case the trough may not be quite deep enough for ideal support.
The other result would be constructive interference of the main
trough and the cut-off low. While moisture would be more limited in
this scenario, synoptic forcing would be stronger with a deeper and
slower trough. Thunderstorms, some potentially strong, would be
possible in a "perfect" amplification pattern.

At this time, it remains a bit early to really say which is more
likely given model uncertainty in cut-off low motion. What can be
determined is that precipitation chances have increased for this
weekend and may (fingers crossed) help drought conditions somewhat.
Thunderstorm potential will also need to be monitored through the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Clear skies with no precipitation or restrictions to VSBYs
expected. Winds are mainly out of the NE but they will turn to the
NW overnight. Expect winds to turn back to the NE by 15-17z Wed.
Winds speeds will stay 8kt or less through the period.



//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          81  56  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         83  59  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     76  50  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    82  54  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        85  58  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     82  56  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           83  57  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            83  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  83  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         83  59  82  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...01