171
FXUS62 KFFC 061053
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
653 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

  - Cold front will bring storms to the area Today. A Slight Risk
    (level 2 of 5) is in effect for north and parts of west
    central Georgia. Primary concerns are damaging winds and a
    quick spin up tornado or two.

  - A Flood Watch is in effect for north and portions of west and
    central Georgia from 8 am to Sunday to 8pm Monday. Rainfall of
    2-4" with isolated amounts up to 5" will be possible. A
    Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) is in effect for flash flood
    potential.

Current radar loop shows the line of showers and thunderstorms
associated with the approaching frontal boundary has moved into NW
GA. We are seeing severe storms along this line and expect it to
continue moving slowly SE through Monday. The Bermuda ridge that
has blocked this boundary from moving into the area over the past
few days is breaking down and pushing east. The line will push SE
and stall in and around the ATL/AHN metro areas Today/Tonight. The
main line of storms finally pushes south and east of the area
Monday as the upper level forcing catches up to the line and
swings the actual front through.

As for the severe weather Today. The limiting factor appears to
be the lack of instability, even though the system will be
laying across the area during peak daytime heating. The
probability of seeing greater than 500 J/kg of instability is 50%
or greater generally along and south of I-20. Any probabilities of
greater than 1000 J/kg are limited to only west central Georgia.
This is due to the positively tilted trough approaching the area,
keeping upper levels warm. Instability will be difficult to
achieve even in the afternoon heating, and ongoing convective blow
off may limit daytime heating near the slowly moving line of
storms. There is a LLJ which helps shear profiles and some
possible rotation with some stronger storms. The greatest threat
appears to be damaging winds and the threat for some QLCS and
isolated small tornados.

As for the flooding concerns. Latest QPF guidance shows a nice
2-4" swath of 2 day precip amounts across most of the area. This
meshes well with the expected stalling of the main line and
repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. This is also in line with 90th
percentile showing widespread 4-5" across much of metro Atlanta.
This amount of rainfall will definitely lead to flooding and flash
flooding concerns if it does come to fruition. All this will be
very highly dependent on exactly where the boundary stalls and if
it stalls at all. If the boundary stalls a bit further south where
the soils can handle higher rainfall amounts this may not be as
great a concern. Have continued and extended the Flood Watch to
include all of north GA along with portions of central and west
GA. The Flood watch goes through 00z Tue.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

The long term period will begin on Monday night with the cold front
clearing the forecast area to the southeast. Showers will remain in
portions of east and central Georgia immediately behind the front.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the far southeast as
well, but are expected to come to an end by midnight.
Northwesterly winds on the back side of the front will usher in a
noticeably cooler airmass. Low temperatures on Tuesday will start
the morning in the upper 30s to low 40s in north Georgia and mid
40s in central Georgia. Advancing surface high pressure to the
northwest of the forecast area will promote clear skies and benign
weather through midweek. Highs on Tuesday range from 7-13 degrees
below climatological normals, ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s
in north Georgia and mid to upper 60s in central Georgia -- quite
the contrast from our recent run of warm temperatures.

Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning of the week as
reinforcing colder air moves into the area from the north. Low
temperatures are forecast to drop into the low 30s along and
north of the Atlanta metro area. Elsewhere in north Georgia,
temperatures in the mid 30s could warrant the need for a Frost
Advisory, as well. Temperatures will begin to moderate on
Wednesday as the surface high moves east of the area and southerly
low level flow returns. Highs in the afternoon will rise into the
mid 60s to low 70s, with slightly cooler temperatures in the
higher elevations of the far northeast. On Thursday a 500 mb
trough will swing through the Midwest, extending into the
Tennessee Valley region by the end of the day. A cold front will
trail from the associated surface low, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms becoming possible across far north Georgia during by
early Thursday afternoon. As the trough continues to deepen
Thursday night into Friday, it will advance the front and
associated precipitation southward through the area.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Increasing clouds, showers and thunderstorms, and gusty winds
this TAF period. Already beginning to see some lowered ceilings
and gusty SW winds ahead of the incoming frontal boundary. Will
see showers and thunderstorms move into the ATL area TAF sites
between 15z to 18z and continue through the end of the TAF set.
Winds will stay out of the SW with speeds increasing into the
10-14kt range with gust to 25kt this afternoon and evening. Will
see VSBYs diminish into the MVFR range with the SHRA/TSRA also.
Ceilings are ranging from SKC to BKN012 now but will see most
location getting down into the MVFR range though this afternoon
as the boundary moves SE. will see some IFR levels in and around
any stronger storms.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          82  60  66  42 /  80  90  80  20
Atlanta         78  58  64  43 /  90 100  70  10
Blairsville     70  53  61  35 / 100  90  60  10
Cartersville    76  54  63  39 /  90  90  50   0
Columbus        83  59  66  43 /  70  90  90  10
Gainesville     78  59  65  43 /  90  90  60  10
Macon           86  62  70  44 /  50  80 100  30
Rome            75  53  63  39 / 100  80  40   0
Peachtree City  81  57  65  41 /  80 100  80  10
Vidalia         89  69  79  49 /   0  20 100  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday evening for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>038-041>050-052>060-066>071-078-079-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...01