725
FXUS62 KFFC 211055
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
655 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening,
followed by numerous thunderstorms across the area on Friday
afternoon and evening.

 - A few stronger storms each day could produce heavy rain,
localized flooding, and gusty winds of 40-50 mph.

Hurricane Erin is currently positioned about 200 miles (320 km) to
the southeast of Cape Hatteras. This morning, the storm will
continue its turn to the northeast and will advance away from the
East Coast today. As Erin moves further away from Georgia, the mid-
level subsidence on the back side of the storm will also move out of
the forecast area. Meanwhile, a cold front is entering far north
Georgia, and is expected to slowly advance southward over the course
of the day. Atmospheric moisture will be increasing in the areas
ahead of the front, with dewpoints rising into the mid 70s in areas
to the south of I-20 compared to low 70s in areas to the north.
Precipitable water values will range from 1.8 to 2.1 inches in
locations to the south of the front as well. High temperatures this
afternoon will rise into the upper 80s to low 90s across the area.
Furthermore, heat index values this afternoon could briefly rise
above 100 in portions of south-central Georgia during the peak
heating hours.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the majority of the
forecast area this afternoon and evening. Chances will be lowest in
the far northwest corner of the state, where the front will have
already passed. Though surface winds will remain light, there is the
potential for weak surface convergence where NW in west Georgia meet
NE winds in east Georgia (on the back side of Erin), which could
enhance convective development and coverage in portions of middle
Georgia and over the Atlanta metro area. Some uncertainty remains on
exactly where this could occur. The threat for widespread severe
weather will be limited by negligible shear along the weakening
frontal boundary and 700-500 mb lapse rates of 5.5 C/km or less.
However, with SBCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg and the high PWATs, a
few storms may become strong, with gusty winds of 40-50 mph from
water loading in downdrafts and along cold pools generated from
collapsing storms. Locally heavy rain will also be possible with any
stronger storms that develop. Development of additional storms will
also be possible along the leading edge of these cold pools.

Deep tropical moisture will linger across the forecast area on
Friday, with PWATS rising further to 2-2.2 inches in central and
portions of north Georgia. Furthermore, the frontal boundary will
stall to the south of the Atlanta metro area. Convection will be
diurnally-driven once again, with the stationary front providing
an additional focus for showers and thunderstorms. PoPs for Friday
afternoon and evening are forecast to be between 60-70% in north
Georgia and 70-85% in central Georgia. The additional coverage of
storms and associated cloud cover will restrict temperatures to
the low to mid 80s in north Georgia and mid to upper 80s in
central Georgia. SBCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg once again,
combined with the deep moisture, will once again lead to the
chance for some strong storms, capable of producing gusty winds
and heavy rain in water-loaded downdrafts. The coverage of storms
combined with slow storm motion and heavy rainfall rates could
lead to a threat for isolated flooding. As such, WPC has
introduced a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Excessive Rainfall in
portions of central and east Georgia.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Key Messages:

    - Increased thunderstorm chances through the weekend for
      North and Central Georgia.

    - Drier weather, mild temperatures and lower humidity early
      next week.

Discussion:

Lingering tropical moisture (PWs 1.5 to 2.1 inches), a weak upper
trough and a stalled surface boundary draped across the FL panhandle
will support in continued rain and thunder chances through the
weekend for North and Central GA. Both Saturday and Sunday will
favor daily shower and thunderstorm chances peaking during the
afternoon and evening -- 2PM-10PM. At this time severe weather is
not anticipated given a lack of notable wind shear and unimpressive
lapse rates. As we`ve seen over this past week, thunderstorms will
generally be quick to develop, slow-moving, capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and stronger wind gusts
of 40-50mph. Additionally, any remnant outflow boundaries from
previous days may serve as a more localized enhancement of storm
development and perhaps some semi-organization. Cloud cover and
rainfall on Saturday should keep temperatures in the 80s. Though if
any extensive clearing occurs, temperatures may be slightly higher
than forecast. On Sunday, an upper level trough will sweep across
the Great Lakes Region, bringing a cold front and another wave of
showers and thunderstorms through North and Central GA. Cooler and
drier continental air will gradually filter in behind the front on
Monday across parts of North GA and into Central GA by Tuesday.
Exactly how cool and dry we get is still in question especially if
the cold front Sunday Night slows or even stalls over portions of
Central GA. With this forecast update, forecast rain chances remain
at less than 15% and forecast dewpoints in the 50s to 60s by late
Monday lasting through at least Wednesday. This combined with
forecast high temperatures in upper 70s and 80s will give us a brief
taste of fall early to mid week next week.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

VFR conditions are ongoing across the majority of the area. A cu
field around 025 is expected to develop around 14-15Z, lifting to
030-040 by 17Z and persist through the remainder of the afternoon.
Convective development will begin as early as 18Z, warranting VCSH
at ATL. Coverage of storms is expected to be greatest from 19-00Z,
with a PROB30 for TSRA being carried at ATL for that time. Winds
will be between 3-6 kts through the day, from NW through much of
the daytime before shifting to E by sunset and into the overnight
hours. Low clouds are anticipated to develop during the early
morning hours on Friday, with MVFR ceilings by 09Z and possibly
IFR after 10-11Z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on the potential for IFR/MVFR on Friday morning.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          89  70  82  69 /  40  50  70  40
Atlanta         89  72  85  71 /  40  40  70  40
Blairsville     84  66  80  66 /  50  30  70  40
Cartersville    90  70  85  70 /  30  30  60  30
Columbus        92  73  88  72 /  50  40  80  50
Gainesville     88  70  82  69 /  40  40  70  40
Macon           91  72  86  71 /  50  50  80  50
Rome            90  70  86  70 /  20  20  60  30
Peachtree City  90  71  85  70 /  50  40  70  40
Vidalia         94  73  88  72 /  50  50  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...King