153
FXUS62 KFFC 301503
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1103 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024



...Morning Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

No changes to the current forecast. Convection hasn`t started just
yet, however given clearing conditions would not be surprised if
Cu got started in the next hour or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

At a glance:

  - Hot temperatures today with a Heat Advisory for portions of the
    area.
  - Decreasing rain chances across N GA and portions of central GA
    on Monday.

The western portion of the upper level high pressure ridge over the
area will build through Monday with the center of the high over NE
TX. The increased amplitude of the ridge upstream will lead to more
NW flow over the area, allowing a weak cold front to sag into the
area from the NW today and tonight. A prefrontal trough is also
located across Central GA. Precipitable water values across the
County Warning Area (CWA) will remain near 2.25" today.

Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to
develop again today. Convective initiation will be delayed by morning
cloud cover. The best chance of shower and thunderstorm activity
today is expected near the prefrontal trough and ahead of the
approaching cold front. Lower PoPs from the Atlanta metro area to
Athens should also be supported by some subsidence beneath the upper
ridge. A few storms may become strong with gusty winds being the main
threat. Drier and more stable air will infiltrate the area by
Monday, with the best chances of showers and thunderstorms across the
SE portion of the area (with likely PoPs SE of Macon). Isolated
activity is expected around the Atlanta metro area with mostly dry
conditions across the NW. QPF values during the short term period
will be mostly less than one quarter of an inch NW of Macon, with
more than an inch possible in the extreme SE. Locally higher amounts
are possible, especially beneath heavier or slower moving storms.

Today will be hot with high temperatures in the mid 90s across most
of the CWA (with mid to upper 80s across portions of the N). Heat
indices are forecast to exceed 105 across portions of the area,
mainly near and SE of a Columbus to Athens line. The Heat Advisory
continues for this area from midday into the early evening. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the upper 60s behind the cold
front across the N to the lower to mid 70s across the remainder of
the area. High temperatures on Monday will range from near 80 along
the NE ridgetops to the mid 90s across the S half of the area.
Temperatures may reach the upper 90s in the SW (near the Columbus
area). Heat indices will be lower across most of the area due to the
slightly milder temperatures and drier air. However, some locations
in the S may flirt with low end Heat Advisory criteria once again.
/SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Beginning the long term period with Tuesday, the dampened 500 mb
ridge axis continues over much of the south with Georgia on the
eastern periphery. Meanwhile to the north of the ridge, several
troughing features attempt to deepen as they move east every couple
of days through the patten. With us being just on the eastern
periphery of the ridging, there is just enough vorticity that makes
it to Georgia to cause daily rain chances through Wednesday into
Thursday. Models are also forecasting PWATs at 2+ inches through the
end of next week which are above the 90th percentile for this time of
year (1.80-1.90"). This in combination with the pushes of vorticity
into the area results in increased rain chances through the long
term. It is also summer which means CAPE values are forecasted to be
between 1000-2000 J/kg every afternoon and evening resulting in
increased thunderstorm chances too. Overall a very summer like
pattern. Towards the later half of the long term period (Saturday
into Sunday), models are indicating a break down of the ridging
pattern as a trough dips into the mid MS valley bringing a what looks
to be a frontal pattern. Time will tell how this pattern evolves
since it is still 7 days out.

With the increased moisture, dewpoints will also be increased with
values in the mid 70s through the beginning of next week. This in
addition to the temps reaching into the mid to upper 90s will result
in heat indices being in the 100-106 range Monday. Only minor relief
from these heat indices is expected on Tuesday into Wednesday where
heat indices are currently forecasted below 100, as dewpoints dip
below 70 for a short time period. Moisture surges again Wednesday
returning us to heat indices in the 100-105+ range through the
remainder of the extended. Again overall a very summer like pattern
for much of Georgia as we begin the month of July with above average
temps.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 733 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Areas of low cigs are presently S and W of the Atlanta metro area,
so will continue with FEW-SCT at around 1000 ft for the next couple
of hours at metro airports. Morning multi-layered clouds will likely
delay convection today, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon. The best chances of
thunderstorms are expected S of a pre-frontal boundary from CSG to
MCN. Additionally, more storms are possible along a weak cold front
sagging into N GA late in the afternoon. SW-W winds will become more
NW by late morning and into the afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on morning clouds and daytime precipitation timing.
High on other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  90  68  84 /  30  20  20  20
Atlanta         75  93  71  86 /  20  20  20  20
Blairsville     66  86  63  81 /  20  20  10  10
Cartersville    71  91  70  88 /  10  10  10  10
Columbus        76  98  73  87 /  30  30  30  40
Gainesville     73  89  69  84 /  20  20  10  10
Macon           74  96  70  85 /  30  50  30  40
Rome            71  91  69  91 /  10  10   0  10
Peachtree City  73  94  69  86 /  20  20  20  20
Vidalia         76  93  72  86 /  40  80  60  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ024-025-027-
035>039-047>051-056-058>062-067>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...SEC