096
FXUS62 KFFC 052326
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
726 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Key Messages:

   - The Flood Watch has been extended through 8 PM EDT tomorrow
     (Wednesday) for most of northern/central GA, except areas
     W/NW of Atlanta.

   - Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2.5 inches are anticipated,
     with locally higher amounts of up to 5 to 6 inches being
     possible, through Wednesday evening.

   - Some flooding remains possible in areas outside of the Flood
     Watch, but the risk is much lower.

   - Temperatures well below seasonal normals will persist through
     Wednesday, but are increasing, with daytime highs in the 70s
     to mid 80s.

Discussion:

The southeastern United States remains under the effects of a wedge
of high pressure. This is resulting in the cloud cover that remains
draped over northern and central Georgia. Little to no clearing is
expected today. Drizzle and light to moderate rain continue over
north Georgia into the Atlanta metro, with increasing rain expected
to develop through the afternoon. Over central Georgia, heavy rain
and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected.

Aloft, a deep-layer trough at the mid- to upper-levels is in place
over AL into central TN/KY, and an upper-level jet is in place over
the Appalachians into north Georgia. Diffluence aloft will aid in
the development of convection. Though the surface wedge promotes
stable conditions, inhibiting convective development, particularly
over north GA and the Atlanta metro area, thunderstorms will
continue to develop over central GA, and a few isolated
thunderstorms remain possible over N GA/Atlanta metro this afternoon
and evening. Despite the stability, the 12Z FFC upper air
observation shows a convective temperature of 67F, which has already
been exceeded across the state. Additionally, there is significantly
more moisture in place over the region than seasonally typical,
despite the cooler-than-normal temperatures. The 12Z sounding showed
precipitable water of 2.05 inches, which is in excess of the 90th
percentile for observations for today (1.88 inches). Because of
this, regardless of the existence (or any lack thereof) of thunder
and lightning, heavy rainfall is likely. This will extend the
flooding threat across most of Georgia.

Tomorrow brings a very gradual trend towards drying. Moisture levels
will slowly decrease through the day tomorrow, approaching
seasonally typical amounts by late tomorrow evening. Drier air will
filter in over Georgia from north to south, and the drizzle/rain
risk will linger longest over central Georgia southward. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible during the afternoon into the
evening.

Temperatures also remain well below seasonal normals. Daytime highs
today will be in the 70s over north Georgia through the Atlanta
metro area, and in the upper 70s to upper 80s over central Georgia.
Slight warming is anticipated for tomorrow - with highs on Wednesday
expected to be in the mid 70s to low 80s in north Georgia and
Atlanta metro area, and in the 80s over central Georgia. This
remains below normal for the area in early August.

CRS

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Key Messages:

    - Flooding concerns may linger into Thursday for some areas

    - A return to more summertime like weather with warmer
      near normal temperatures and daily rain and thunder chances

Discussion:

Dreary conditions will continue on Thursday with the wedge still
somewhat in place to the northeast and weak troughing still
evident at the midlevels. Flooding concerns may also linger during
the early part of Thursday given recent rainfall across many
areas this past week. However, eastward movement of midlevel
troughing will act to gradually erode/weaken the wedge as we head
into the weekend. While higher end PWs and deep layer moisture
shift more to the southeast/east, the moisture available and
overall mid/upper level pattern will still support daily diurnal
convection through the weekend. There are still some uncertainties
regarding the development of a surface low just off the SC Coast
and how this evolves through the weekend. As of this writing, most
long term guidance continues to keep this system along the coast
eventually tracking north. Though any deviation further inland
would lead to potentially higher rainfall for portions of east-
central Georgia. Details regarding its movement will be refined in
future forecasts. Regardless, daily rain and thunder chances
remain the forecast through early next week, with the highest
chances confined to areas of Central and eastern Georgia.
Temperature will trend warmer each day starting off in the low to
mid 80s and reaching the upper 80s to low 90s late early next
week.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

IFR to LIFR through TAF period. Temp MVFR near CSG will decrease
over coming hours. Sct -ra and -dz over most of TAF cycle. Winds E
to NE at 4 to 9 kts. Low cigs may lift Wednesday afternoon
slightly, though at least sct IFR likely to remain.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence winds.
Medium confidence all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  77  66  81 /  70  30  30  30
Atlanta         67  79  68  82 /  50  30  20  30
Blairsville     63  79  62  80 /  40  50  30  60
Cartersville    67  84  67  85 /  40  20  20  30
Columbus        71  84  70  85 /  60  50  30  50
Gainesville     65  78  66  81 /  60  30  20  30
Macon           70  84  68  83 /  60  60  30  50
Rome            66  84  66  85 /  20  30  20  40
Peachtree City  67  80  66  82 /  60  30  20  30
Vidalia         71  87  71  84 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for GAZ006>009-014>016-
022>025-027-033>039-044>051-053>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-
102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CRS
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SM