780
FXUS62 KFFC 052344
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
744 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Key Messages:

  - Some showers possible across south central Georgia tonight into
    tomorrow afternoon. Amounts will be light.

  - Unseasonably warm temperatures continue, especially in northern
    GA. High temperatures are 5-10 degrees above average.

Forecast:

Surface high pressure located over Great Lakes will continue to
rotate east through the afternoon and into the overnight as strong
surface low associated with a potent upper level shortwave continues
to move east upstream. This upper level wave will dig into the
northern portions of the eastern CONUS on Sunday, driving a dry cold
front just to the north of the CWA by late Sunday night/early Monday
morning, portending some potential changes discussed in the long term
forecast.

With easterly surface winds across much of the CWA and relatively
dry mid to upper levels, little in the way of rainfall or
thunderstorm chances expected across the CWA. The exception will be
far south central Georgia, where better access to some moisture from
the Atlantic and Gulf in the mid to upper levels will allow for the
potential for some shower development tonight through early tomorrow
afternoon, though these should remain light.

The only interesting weather story in the CWA will be the high and
low temperatures, which continue to hover 5-10 degrees above average
in most places. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s today
and tomorrow, with lows in the low to mid 60s thanks to lingering
surface moisture.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

At a glance:

    - Trending cooler

    - Minimal (if any) rain expected

Several lobes of low pressure rotating around a digging mid-level
closed low will send a cold front trekking toward the Southeast to
kick off the extended on Monday. Progressively cooler and drier
reinforcing shots of continental air are ushered in by way of
resultant northwesterly flow behind the front. The combined effect of
the aforementioned dry air and subsidence from the southern fringes
of surface high pressure will help to tamp down on any meaningful
chances for showers or thunderstorms through next Friday. As it
stands, only portions of far southeast central Georgia exceed a 15%
chance for showers on Wednesday morning, otherwise rain chances
remain below 10% through Saturday.

However, any changes in forecast steering and surface flow will
require continued monitoring as it pertains to the intrusion of
tropical moisture associated with Tropical Depression 14. For now,
the southern extent of the surface high looks to provide a barrier
between tropical rainfall on the periphery of the system and south
central Georgia, but this could change in coming days and with any
track shifts northward.

High temperatures initially in the upper-70s to 80s (as much as 5-10
degrees above average) will trend cooler following cold frontal
passage Monday into Tuesday. Expect highs in the 70s to round out the
remainder of next week. Crisp -- dare we say truly Fall-like --
mornings to come in the latter half of the extended, with morning low
temperatures in the 40s to lower-50s.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are expected to continue. Some low clouds and
patchy, mostly light fog are possible at AHN toward daybreak, but
have opted to keep VFR conditions there as well. A few afternoon
showers are possible near CSG Sunday afternoon, but most of the
activity will remain to the S. Winds will be light and variable or
calm for tonight across the area. Easterly winds will pick up again
during the day Sunday, but speeds will remain light.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium for morning cigs, high for other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  81  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         65  81  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     57  78  56  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    63  83  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        68  83  62  87 /  10  10   0   0
Gainesville     62  80  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           66  83  61  87 /   0  10   0   0
Rome            61  85  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  64  82  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         69  82  62  86 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...SEC