


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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422 FXUS62 KFFC 051817 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 217 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Key Messages: - Tropical Storm Chantal will spin off the coast. The effect on north and central Georgia will be to keep storms chances near zero in most all but far eastern central Georgia. - Highs remain in the low to mid 90s outside of the mountains, 70s to 80s depending on elevation in the mountains. Forecast: The holiday weekend continues to look quiet for most of north and central Georgia, despite the formation of newly designated Tropical Storm Chantal off the Georgia coastline. The tropical system will actually play an important role in helping keep the area mostly dry for the next two days thanks to subsidence and a dry slot around the outer edge of the system that will be right over the top of north and central Georgia. The exception to that should be far east central Georgia tomorrow, which should see enough moisture being brought around the tropical system in combination with a bit more favorable upper level environment outside of the dry slot that afternoon isolated to scattered thunderstorms are able to develop. Otherwise, no big weather concerns through the weekend. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above average with highs today outside the mountains in the low 90s. Heat indices will be in the mid 90s. Tomorrow, highs will warm a bit in the mid 90s (outside of east central Georgia, where potential storms and cloud cover may keep things a bit cooler). Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s as a result. Lusk && .LONG TERM... (Monday morning through next Friday) Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Key Messages: - Increasingly warm and wet through the period. - Temperatures rise into the mid 90s by mid week. - Diurnal PoPs return with scattered to widespread thunderstorms possible. Uplift from the low currently named Chantal will move out of the southeast CWA to start the week. Precipitation chances Monday and Tuesday afternoon remain isolated to scattered. NBM probs indicated greater than 50% probability that sfcCAPE values will remain below 1500 J/Kg (rather modest for summer time convection). Temperatures peak Monday and Tuesday afternoon with limited convection, ample moisture, and highs reaching into the mid and even upper 90s. Dewpoints on Tuesday will be especially oppressive, reaching near 70F during peak heating Tuesday. As we move into mid week, the Bermuda high trends weaker as a series of weak shortwaves traverse the Ohio Valley. While not super impressive, these shortwaves will likely be enough to increase diurnal convection across the CWA. PWATS remain a juicy 1.5" to 2.25" (gradient generally north to south). Models have decreases temperatures through this timeframe with increased convection, however temperatures will still be very hot given humidity (see end of discussion for heat and temperatures). Similar to most summertime patterns, a few storms could become strong to even severe with gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Relatively weak upper level flow may mean storms move slowly or even sit over the same location for extended periods of time. Temperatures through the period will be hot and oppressive with dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s for much of the period. Highs will peak on Monday and Tuesday in the mid 90s, however increasing moisture will mean hot conditions continue through Thursday. Tuesday and Wednesday could see those "feels like" temperatures in the 100- 110 range (only decreasing to the 100-105 range on Thursday). Make sure to stay cool, stay hydrated, and check on those who are most vulnerable to the heat. SM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 VFR through TAF period. Another day of afternoon cu field development that will fade after sunset. Winds are from the E to ENE at 7-12 kts with some gusts approaching 16-20 kts. Winds will go lighter overnight, before we see a wind shift in the morning hours to early afternoon at most sites to the NW (currently timed at 16-18Z at KATL). No vsby, cig, or precip concerns through TAF period. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High all elements. Lusk && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 69 93 71 96 / 0 10 0 10 Atlanta 72 95 74 96 / 0 0 0 20 Blairsville 64 88 65 89 / 0 10 10 20 Cartersville 71 94 71 96 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 72 96 74 96 / 0 10 0 20 Gainesville 69 92 72 94 / 0 10 0 20 Macon 71 93 74 97 / 0 10 0 20 Rome 69 93 70 94 / 0 0 0 10 Peachtree City 69 94 71 96 / 0 0 0 10 Vidalia 72 91 75 96 / 10 40 0 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lusk LONG TERM....SM AVIATION...Lusk