059
FXUS62 KFFC 271834 AAC
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
234 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Surface high pressure will move off the coast of the Carolinas
tonight. The ridge axis will continue to hug the coast overnight with
light and variable winds expected for most places. Light southeast
surface flow will continue into tomorrow night. Mid level shortwave
energy will lend to some mid/high level cloudiness at times.
Temperatures will average around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for
this time of year.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Key messages:

 - Rain chances return over the weekend into early next week, with
   the potential for strong to severe storms.

The long term period will start with a weak upper ridge over the SE
U.S. and a shortwave the S MS Valley. The shortwave is progged to
move ENE as it dampens out through the Sunday. By Sunday night, the
shortwave will move off the SE U.S. coast, with upper flow becoming
more zonal across the area.

At the surface, low pressure over the Central Plains on Saturday
will dive SSE into the weekend as it weakens. Southerly flow will
continue to advect increasing moisture across the area from the Gulf
through the weekend. This, in concert with increasing instability
and dynamic forcing (albeit waning) will support thunderstorm
development. The best chances of rain and the highest QPF is
forecast to precede a cold front which will move into the area late
Sunday into Monday.

Storm total rainfall from the weekend into early next week is
forecast to range from around 1.5" in the N to around three quarters
of an inch in the SE. QPF amounts during this event have increased
across the S, and this is mostly due to increased instability and
convection ahead of the cold front during the day Monday.
Locally higher amounts are possible.

SPC has NW Georgia in a 15% severe risk area for Sunday and Sunday
night, with another 15% risk area across most of the state for
Monday and Monday night. CAPE values are forecast to ramp up to
around 2000 J/kg with effective shear of at least 40 kts during peak
daytime heating, so severe parameters will be in place. The greatest
threat appears to be gusty winds with lesser threats for tornadoes
and hail.

Another, quick-moving storm system may sweep across the OH Valley
around the middle of next week, but model agreement is low during
this time period.

Temperatures will run well above normal through most of the period
(10 to 15 degrees above normal), although readings will drop back
closer to normal behind the front early next week (still about 5
degrees above normal). /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR through the period. Sct-bkn high clouds at times. Winds will
be the main forecast challenge. Winds may briefly go due south this
afternoon, but should settle back to the east side shortly after
00Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med confidence wind direction this afternoon/early evening. High
confidence remaining elements.

NListemaa

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Some low level moisture return is expected overnight and tomorrow.
MinRH values will be slightly higher, but still around or just below
25 percent for most locales. A Fire Danger Statement may be needed
for much of the outlook area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          47  81  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         52  81  60  79 /   0   0   0  10
Blairsville     45  74  52  72 /   0  10   0  10
Cartersville    50  81  58  80 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus        52  83  60  82 /   0   0   0  10
Gainesville     47  78  57  77 /   0   0   0  10
Macon           49  83  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            47  82  58  79 /   0   0   0  10
Peachtree City  49  81  58  79 /   0   0   0  10
Vidalia         51  83  58  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...NListemaa