065
FXUS62 KFFC 071102
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
702 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Key Messages:

 - A line of strong to severe thunderstorms may impact north and
   central Georgia between 4 PM and 11 PM today, with widespread
   damaging winds being the primary concern.

 - Additional rounds of thunderstorms may impact the area on
   Sunday, with the potential for some to be severe during the
   afternoon and evening.

Patchy dense fog across north and central Georgia will gradually
lift and clear through the morning hours but otherwise today will
start off warm and humid under mostly sunny skies. An ongoing MCS
(line of strong storms) pushing across the Mid-South and TN Valley
will be our focus of attention today, as it is forecast to move
into AL and GA during the late afternoon and evening hours. This
would coincide with peak daytime heating and instability (MUCAPE
around 2000 J/kg) which would maintain or potentially even
intensify the line of storms. With this in mind, SPC has upgraded
most of north GA to an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe
weather, with a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) across central GA. The
primary concern would be widespread damaging wind gusts in the 50
to 70 mph, but quarter sized hail and brief spin-up tornadoes are
also possible. The most likely time frame of the line of storms is
4PM to 11PM. However, these types of severe weather setups (long-
duration MCS) are well-known for their uncertainty in timing,
location, and strength, so it is imperative to stay tuned for
updates to the forecast.

Sunday looks to be another active day, as a series of weak mid-
level shortwave impulses and associated thunderstorms move across
the area, stemming from a stout shortwave and surface low over
the OH Valley. Narrowing down the timing and location of these
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be difficult this far in
advance, as they will be dependent on the MCS from Saturday. At
this time, the most likely area to support any severe
thunderstorms would be across central GA during the afternoon and
evening where moisture and instability will be greatest. SPC has
most of this area in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5), with a Marginal
Risk (Level 1 of 5) across north GA. Primary concerns would again
be damaging wind gusts.

High temperatures today will range from the upper 80s in north GA
to the low to mid 90s in central GA, with dewpoints in the low to
mid 70s making it feel like the mid to upper 90s during the
afternoon. Tonight`s lows will again be mild, only dropping to the
low 70s. Sunday`s highs will be a few degrees cooler than today,
with mid 80s in north GA and upper 80s to low 90s in central GA.

Culver

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Key Messages:

 - Diurnally driven Showers and thunderstorms expected through the
   extended period.

 - Near-normal temperatures through day 7.

The wet pattern continues for the foreseeable future with
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms anticipated through day
7. By Sun night the weak frontal boundary that moved into the
area Sat night will be stalled somewhere across central/south GA
and wont move much north or south through the forecast period. At
the same time, upper level zonal flow over the southeastern states
begins to turn a bit southwesterly. This will also combine with a
strong surface to upper level ridge extending from the western
Gulf to the western Atlantic and it also stays fairly stationary.
This surface to upper level pattern will keep a decent amount of
moisture streaming along the frontal boundary with shortwave after
shortwave moving through. Basically we will continue to see more
scattered to widespread shower and thunder chances through day 7.
With several disturbances forecast to pass through the upper level
flow and interacting with the frontal boundary could result in
enhanced storm coverage and intensity. The Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) has a 15% risk area across MS and AL for Monday but would
not be surprised to see that risk area pushed into GA as a
Marginal or even a slight risk. Will most likely continue to see
these risk areas as days 5,6, and 7 become days 1, 2, and 3.

With all this rain in the forecast, temperatures through the long
term will hover near seasonal norms (give or take 3-5 deg). This
will put highs mainly in the 80s with some lower 90s across
central GA. Lows will be in the 60s to lower 70s.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR to start the period, with patchy MVFR to IFR CIGs and 4-6 SM
VIS through 14Z this morning, primarily north of ATL and near CSG.
A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to enter the area in the
mid to late afternoon, moving eastward through the evening. A
PROB30 for TSRA is being carried from 21-01Z at ATL. Winds will be
W through the period, at 5-8 kts this morning, then increasing to
8-12 kts with gusts of 18-22 kts after 15Z today. Another round of
PROB30 TSRA early Sunday AM.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing of thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, and again Sun AM. High confidence on all other elements.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          90  70  84  67 /  30  40  70  20
Atlanta         89  70  84  69 /  50  60  80  30
Blairsville     83  64  78  59 /  40  70  70  20
Cartersville    89  68  84  65 /  50  70  80  20
Columbus        93  72  87  70 /  50  30  80  50
Gainesville     88  70  82  66 /  40  50  70  20
Macon           93  73  88  69 /  40  30  80  50
Rome            88  69  84  66 /  50  70  80  20
Peachtree City  90  69  83  67 /  50  50  80  30
Vidalia         93  74  90  72 /  50  40  80  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Culver