714
FXUS62 KFFC 091858
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
258 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Key Messages:

- Scattered areas of light to moderate showers and some
thunderstorms will continue through the evening with a final push
overnight into Monday. Rain clears the area by Monday night.

-The best thunder chances will largely be south of I-20. While
widespread severe weather is not expected, a strong thunderstorm
(winds 40-50 MPH and frequent lightning) is not out of the question.

It`s a dreary Sunday with areas of scattered rain showers and some
thunderstorms moving across North and Central Georgia this
afternoon. This activity will be `on and off` for the most part
through the evening before a final push of rainfall in association
with the surface low and main upper level system overnight/early
Monday. A few lightning strikes have been noted as far north as just
south of the ATL metro. Latest surface analysis indicates the
surface low is just off the coast of MS/AL and SPC Mesoanalysis
shows MUCAPE values near 250 J/kg in areas along and south of
Columbus to Macon. Though some values of 100 J/kg or less as far
north as LaGrange to Forsyth to Sandersville. Still thinking thunder
as far north as the ATL metro (and northward) will be few and far
between with the best chances for thunderstorms south of I-20. A
strong storm along our county warning area border (namely areas like
Americus, Eastman, and Vidalia southward) is still a possibility
with winds up to 50 MPH and frequent lightning being the primary
hazards. But widespread severe weather is not expected at this time.
Due to the presence of clouds and showers/thunderstorms,
temperatures have been on the cooler side ranging from the upper 40s
to mid 50s.

A final push of showers and/or thunderstorms will move through
overnight into Monday morning. A strong upper level system will
swing across the Mid-South and the surface low will hug the Gulf
Coastline passing to our south. Forecast lows will be cooler with
values in the low to mid 40s. On Monday, wrap around moisture from
the upper level system will keep clouds and some showers around for
parts of North GA during the morning. Though rain will gradually
depart from west to east and skies will clear through the late
afternoon. Forecast high temperatures will range from the mid 60s in
NW Georgia to mid 50s elsewhere.

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Key Messages:

  - Pleasant weather until another round of rain possible on
Thursday. This system looks like it will be weakening as it
approaches the area, so forecast rain amounts are light.

  - A more significant system approaches over the weekend with
potential for severe weather. Still a lot of uncertainty with
timing and impacts of this system.

Forecast:

Mild and dry conditions through mid-week as a subtropical mid-
level ridge and surface high pressure build over the area in the
wake of the system from Monday. High temperatures will quite a
bit above normal, climbing into the mid to upper 70s by
Wednesday, with lows generally in the low to mid 40s.

By Thursday, the ridge axis will push off to the east, with a
weakening mid-level shortwave quickly moving across the MS Valley
into the Southeast US. This system will not have too much to work
with, but could still support some light rain or showers across
Georgia as it passes through.

Dry conditions return for Friday thanks to a ridge building
downstream of the next system, which looks a lot more interesting
and potentially impactful. Guidance continues to show a deep mid-
level trough moving across the Rockies by the start of the
weekend, with a strong surface low developing over the central
Plains and moving towards the Great Lakes region. For northern
and central Georgia, impacts from this system will be from its
strong frontal boundary, which will push across the area during
the weekend. There is still a decent amount of uncertainty on
timing, but at this time the most likely time frame of impacts
would be late Saturday into Sunday. This is a system that will
need to be watched closely over the coming days, as several
ingredients would be in place for severe weather.

Culver

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

All sites remain at VFR for the time being but anticipate
gradually deteriorating cigs through the afternoon -- MVFR by 00z
and IFR as early as 03z and largely persisting through the
remainder of the TAF period. Cigs could begin lifting as early as
18z at RYY. Periods of SHRA and isolated TSRA will persist through
the period coming to an end just beyond the end of the TAF period
from west to east. Isolated gusts 15 to 18kts possible through
the period. Winds remain due east but gradually shift back NE and
eventually shifting back to the NNW side after 18z Monday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium confidence on timing/extent of IFR ceilings and thunder
chances.
High confidence on remaining elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          43  55  36  72 /  70  70   0   0
Atlanta         44  58  40  71 /  70  70   0   0
Blairsville     39  60  33  70 /  50  50   0   0
Cartersville    43  63  34  71 /  60  60   0   0
Columbus        47  60  38  73 /  90  60   0   0
Gainesville     44  58  38  71 /  60  60   0   0
Macon           46  54  37  73 /  90  70   0   0
Rome            44  66  35  74 /  50  50   0   0
Peachtree City  43  57  35  72 /  80  70   0   0
Vidalia         49  58  41  74 /  90  80  20   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...07