212
FXUS62 KFFC 040214
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1014 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Conditions are relatively tame this evening, characterized by only
a few areas of light to moderate rain. This trend is expected to
continue through the next several hours before a gradual increase
in rainfall coverage beginning later Monday morning and into the
day Monday. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday evening
for the western two thirds of the CWA. Future expansions in
temporal and areal extent are possible given the expectation for
additional heavier rainfall from tomorrow into Tuesday.

RW

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Key Messages:

 - A Flood Watch is in effect through Monday evening for the
   western two-thirds of the area including the Atlanta Metro and
   Macon.

 - Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches and isolated pockets
   of 5 to 6 inches remain possible through Monday within the
   watch area.

 - `Cool` below normal temperatures will stick around through
Monday with forecast high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s.

Discussion:

A blanket of clouds and waves of light to moderate rain showers has
made for a dreary Sunday across the state of Georgia. This activity
has kept temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s (~66 to 75 degree
range) so far today. Temperatures are not expected to deviate too
much from what they are now give or take 2-4 degrees.

A very moist airmass remains place across the Southeast
characterized by PWs of 1.8 to 2.2 inches. Strong easterly flow
along the lee side of the Appalachians has kept the wedge firmly in
place across North and Central Georgia. This is also being
reinforced by a low pressure system off the Atlantic Coast. Multiple
waves of light to moderate rainfall will continue to be the trend
through Monday aided by a 300mb jet streak and a few small
disturbances in the 500mb flow. So far thunder has been limited
given the rather stable environment but isolated thunderstorms do
remain a possibility primarily for areas south of Columbus to
Macon, as we head into the afternoon hours. Starting to see some
breaks in the clouds and thunderstorms being to develop across
portions of southwest Georgia. While the surface boundary in our
area yesterday is well to our south, any northward movement of
this boundary may enhance the flooding risk and/or increase the
chances for thunderstorms for south-central Georgia through the
evening. Severe weather is expected today but be mindful that
lightning and gusty winds may accompany any storm that may
develop.

Up through 6 AM this morning, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches and
isolated totals near 5 inches were noted across northwest GA, areas
west of Atlanta, and much of Central Georgia. Over the past 6 hours
(from 6 AM until 12 PM), areas of light to moderate rainfall has
produced an additional 1-2 inches across many locations,
particularly in the vicinity of the I-20 corridor. Isolated pockets
of 3 to 5 inches were also noted in Newton County that resulted in
localized flooding. Given no changes to the current environment, 24-
hr observed rainfall and additional rainfall expected through at
least Monday a Flood Watch was introduced for the western two-thirds
of the forecast area through 8 PM Monday. This does include the
Atlanta Metro and Macon areas. We will be closely monitoring trends
as this watch may need to be extended in time and/or expanded to
include additional counties.

Over the next 24 to 36 hours (through Tuesday morning), multiple
rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated,
particularly within the current watch area. At this time, additional
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches and isolated amounts of 5 to 6 inches
remain possible through Monday Night. At the time of this writing,
many locations that have already received a decent amount of
rainfall within the past 24-hrs are already within an inch or less
of flash flood guidance. Thus, flooding will continue to be a
growing concern this evening. It`s also been windy at times and keep
in  mind that any amount of wind (even 20 to 30 MPH winds) will be
capable of knocking down trees given saturated soils. Creeks,
rivers, and streams will also be on the rise in the coming days
given multiple rounds of rainfall expected.

Clouds and periods of rainfall will keep temperatures well below
normal. Forecast high temperatures on Monday will be similar to
today. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the 60s to low 70s
each night.

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Key Messages:

    - Flooding likely into the mid week as rainfall totals from 2-4
     inches are expected with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches.

    - Below normal high temps to start the week due to increase
    cloud cover and rainfall.

Discussion:

Flooding will be the main story for the long term as we grow
increasingly concerned in multiple days of rainfall that are likely
to lead to flooding concerns. The frontal boundary is over southern
GA currently but is likely to drift during the day into the southern
reaches of central Georgia. This along with the moist airmass in
place will lead to the focus in increased rainfall and higher
rainfall totals through mid week. To our west the trough will also
help funnel in moisture into the area. Forecasted PWATs are expected
to remain in the 2-2.2" range which is above the 90th percentile and
also reaching record daily maxes for this time of year. Add in
daytime heating resulting in convectively enhanced precipitation,
little to no shear and these slow moving storms will be capable of
dropping increased amounts of rainfall over short time periods. Our
current forecasted rainfall totals through mid week are ~4-6 inches
over this central Georgia portion with amounts of 1-3 inches north
of the front. In addition to this we are looking at a series of
daily short waves pushing into the area that will interact with
the wedge front and further enhance rainfall amounts north of the
front. Areas across Georgia have received widespread 1-3 inches of
rainfall already with isolated amounts up to 5 inches. This has
resulted in saturated soils and thus this additional rainfall will
lead to a quicker ramp up in flooding conditions. The higher end
amount does seem to have become a little bit more in the realm of
possibility as opposed to yesterday but still may be a little too
high at close to 8-10 inches. Like yesterday though, would not be
surprised if an isolated area does receive close to that 8 inch mark
before mid week is over with the current setup. WPC currently has
portions of the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall through
Tuesday.

Another thing to touch on is we have received reports of trees down
in areas with saturated soils and gusty winds up to 30 mph. This is
expected to continue through at least Tuesday with any gustier winds
likely to bring down even more trees in counties with heavier
rainfall.

Outside of the flooding potential, the wedge looks to hang on into
the beginning of the week resulting in highs on Tuesday in the mid
to upper 70s. This will be well below normal for this time of year
at 15 degrees below normal. Temps will actually be flirting with
record minimum high temperatures through Tuesday which definitely
doesn`t happen too often in August. By mid to late week we should
see the trough begin to swing eastward resulting in a return to a
more normal summer pattern with scattered thunderstorms and
increasing temperatures (although still staying below 90 for now).

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

While cigs are currently primarily MVFR, IFR cigs will make a
return by 07-09Z and are expected to prevail through the remainder
of the TAF period with patchy LIFR cigs also possible. Widespread
RA will also increase by 08-12Z Monday and persist through the
bulk of the day, at times reducing visibility as low as 2-3 SM or
lower in heavier RA. Winds will remain E at 8-15 kts with gusts
20-25 kts possible at times.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing of heaviest RA.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  69  64  72 /  60  80  40  60
Atlanta         68  72  65  71 /  70  80  40  70
Blairsville     63  71  60  71 /  60  60  30  50
Cartersville    68  75  66  75 /  70  80  40  50
Columbus        72  79  68  76 /  60  80  70  80
Gainesville     65  70  64  72 /  60  80  30  60
Macon           69  74  67  76 /  80  70  60  70
Rome            68  74  65  77 /  70  70  30  50
Peachtree City  68  72  64  71 /  70  70  50  70
Vidalia         71  82  69  80 /  90  60  60  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday evening for GAZ001>005-007-011>014-
019>022-030>034-041>049-052>060-066>073-078>084-089>097-102>111.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...RW