578
FXUS62 KFFC 181032
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
632 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Key Messages:

 - Warm afternoon temperatures today will contribute to heat index
values of 97-102 degrees.

 - Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible in portions of north Georgia this afternoon.

 - Chances for thunderstorms will be higher across the area on
Tuesday, though high temperatures will be limited to the mid to
upper 80s in northeast Georgia.

An upper level ridge will linger across much of the eastern CONUS,
gradually elongating from southwest to northeast over the course of
the day. The influence of the ridge will lead to another warm day
across north and central Georgia. Aside from the far northeast
mountains, highs are forecast to rise into the mid 90s across the
majority of the area. Drier air underneath the ridge will also drop
dewpoints into the upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon and serve to
somewhat suppress afternoon thunderstorm chances. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon
in far northeast Georgia, where northeasterly flow and the terrain
influence could help a few storms get going. A few of these
storms could he advance as far as the Atlanta metro area within
the northeasterly flow. While afternoon highs are forecast to be
4-8 degrees above climatological normals under partly cloudy
skies, the drier air should prevent Heat Advisory criteria from
being reached. Heat index values are expected to range from 97-102
degrees in the peak heating hours.

As Hurricane Erin continues to move northeastward across the
Atlantic, the influence of the ridge is expected to keep it offshore
and begin to steer it more northward away from the eastern CONUS. On
Tuesday, Erin will be positioned several hundred miles to the
southeast of Georgia while surface high pressure will be centered
over southeast Canada. Between these two, a weak CAD wedge will
develop along the Appalachians and spread into northeast Georgia.
This wedge will bring additional moisture, and thus cloud cover and
rain chances to the north and east portions of the area during the
daytime on Tuesday. High temperatures within this wedge feature are
forecast to be limited to the mid to upper 80s, though highs will
still rise into the low to mid 90s in central Georgia and northwest
Georgia.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Key Messages:

 - General cooling trend through the weekend with highs falling from
   the 90s Monday to the mid 80s by end of week.

 - Increasing afternoon PoPs each afternoon through the week.

Upper and mid level ridging slowly weakens through the week, partly
with erosion by hurricane Erin. Afternoon thunderstorm chances
increase through the end of the week as with weakening suppressive
forcing and eventual trough development over the central CONUS.
PWATs will be just high enough for storms to produce heavy rain (1.5-
2.0"), though organized strong to severe thunderstorms are not
anticipated due to CAPE values remaining below 2000J/Kg for much of
the area.

Temperatures generally decline through the week due to a combination
of less sinking air and near surface northeast/east flow around Erin
inducing suedo-wedging. Highs by the end of the week will likely
only reach the mid 80s with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Several locations, mostly along and south of I-85 are reporting
patchy fog, with visibilities of 3-5 SM, as the morning begins.
Fog is not anticipated at ATL this morning, and it is expected to
dissipate across the area by 13-14Z giving way to VFR conditions
across the area. A cu field between 040-060 is expected by 17Z
and through the afternoon. Isolated TSRA will be possible in
portions of north Georgia in the mid to late afternoon, though
chances are too low to warrant mention at any TAF site at this
time. Winds today will be E at 4-7 kts, becoming light and
variable after 01Z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          93  72  87  71 /  10  10  30  10
Atlanta         94  75  91  73 /  20  10  30  10
Blairsville     88  68  83  67 /  30  10  60  10
Cartersville    95  73  92  72 /  20  10  30  10
Columbus        95  73  95  74 /  10   0  20  10
Gainesville     93  72  87  71 /  20  10  40  10
Macon           94  72  93  73 /  10   0  20  10
Rome            95  72  92  72 /  10  10  30  10
Peachtree City  94  72  91  72 /  10  10  30  10
Vidalia         93  71  93  73 /  10   0  20   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...King