954
FXUS62 KFFC 041050
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
650 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Key Messages:

  - Near record high temps expected Today and Saturday. .

  - Isolated afternoon showers and few storms possible.

Forecast:

Current satellite loop shows mostly clear skies across the state
this morning. Starting to see some low clouds develop across south
and central GA with the moist southerly flow over the region.

We currently have a large Bermuda ridge centered off the GA/Carolina
coast. This feature is going to remain mostly stationary, putting GA
under moist southerly flow for the next few days. This ridge is also
protecting GA by not allowing the fairly vigorous frontal system
bringing severe weather to areas from TX to OH for the next couple
of days. This southerly flow is also whats helping to heat things up
ushering in a very warm airmass for this time of year. High temps
are going to likely approach some local climate site records, but
whether or not we actually make it to the records is still
uncertain. We are expecting some early morning cloud cover that
could delay the heating which would keep us from breaking some of
the records. Temps Today and Sat will get up into the middle 80s to
near 90 with some upper 70s in the NE GA mountains.

Another thing with the moist southerly flow is we could see some
isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two mainly across
eastern portions of the state. Not expecting anything major and
definitely nothing severe, but these showers may also hinder some
locations from reaching the record high temps Today. Tonight and Sat
night, temps will dip into the 60s, which is still relatively warm
for this time of year.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

As the long term period begins on Saturday night, a longwave trough
extending through the Great Plains will and into Texas will begin to
advance towards the Mississippi River Valley. This will displace the
long-lived ridge responsible for our recent warm weather away to the
east. Georgia will then become positioned underneath enhanced
southwesterly flow between these two upper level features. At the
surface a cold front will slowly sink southeastward into the
forecast area by Sunday afternoon. A shortwave disturbance
traversing the southwesterly upper level flow will overrun the
front, providing additional forcing and a focus for precipitation. A
broad area of widespread precip is forecast ahead of the frontal
boundary, as a result. High temperatures on Sunday will rise into
the mid to upper 70s to the north of I-85 and into the 80s to the
south. With dewpoints also in the 60s, there will be ample
instability to support the development of thunderstorms.

Model guidance is coming into better agreement with respect to the
timing of the front, with it appearing more likely that it will push
through north Georgia into central Georgia from the mid-afternoon
through the overnight hours. This scenario will allow for more
instability to build. With 0-6 km bulk shear values of 40-50 kts, it
will be possible to see several storms become strong to severe,
capable of producing damaging wind gusts. The SPC has introduced a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather along and north of a
rough line from Cordele to Macon. Rainfall totals on Sunday and
Monday will range from 1.5 to 2.5 inches, though locally heavier
amounts could occur with stronger storms which could lead to
isolated flash flooding. WPC has diagnosed a Slight Risk (level 2 of
4) for excessive rainfall across north and portions of central
Georgia, as a result.

A significantly cooler airmass will begin to set up across the area
on Monday as the cold front exits the area to the southeast. Low
temperatures on Tuesday will range from the upper 30s in far north
Georgia to the upper 40s in east-central Georgia. Wednesday morning
will be even cooler as reinforcing colder air moves into the area
from the north. On these mornings, temperatures are forecast to drop
to near freezing in the far northern tier. A Frost Advisory may
furthermore be needed elsewhere in north Georgia. High temperatures
Monday through Wednesday will be mainly in the 60s. Both low and
high temperatures will begin to moderate on Thursday and Friday.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

increasing low clouds across the area with the moist southerly
flow. Expecting ceilings in the 700ft to 1200ft range between
11z-14z then lifting into the VFR range by 15z to 17z. Winds will
be mainly southerly through the period with speeds this morning
10kt or less then increasing into the 8-124kt range with slightly
higher gust this afternoon. Wind speeds will diminish to 10kt or
less after 00z Sat. No precipitation expected through the period.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025


Records for 04-04

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      89 1934     47 2013     66 1999     29 1915
                            1987
   KATL      85 1969     47 2013     66 1880     30 1987
                            1987                    1936
                                                    1891
   KCSG      89 1934     52 2013     65 2012     33 1987
                1918
   KMCN      88 1969     50 2013     69 1977     31 1992
                1954
                1934



Records for 04-05

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      88 2010     47 1964     62 1969     29 1944
                                                    1891
   KATL      89 1988     36 1891     66 1880     28 1881
   KCSG      91 1934     58 1962     65 1969     34 1987
   KMCN      91 1988     53 1944     63 2023     32 2000
                                        1969
                                        1922


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          86  64  87  64 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         87  67  87  66 /   0   0   0  10
Blairsville     81  60  82  59 /  10  10  10  20
Cartersville    88  65  89  64 /   0   0   0  20
Columbus        88  65  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     85  65  86  65 /  10   0   0  10
Macon           88  64  87  65 /  10  10   0   0
Rome            88  64  88  64 /   0   0   0  30
Peachtree City  87  64  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         89  65  88  66 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...01