145
FXUS62 KFFC 300734
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
334 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Key Messages

 - Patchy dense fog is expected in northwest Georgia through 9 AM
   today.

 - Isolated rain showers should develop this afternoon (10%
   chance at any given location).

Today:

Partial clearing of the mid level cloud deck across northwest
Georgia, northern Alabama and southeast Tennessee has lead to
conditions that are favorable for radiational cooling this morning.
This is combining with calm surface winds and moisture from recent
rainfall to produce the right conditions for dense fog development.
Satellite imagery is suggesting either very low clouds (200-400 ft
AGL) or fog in the region as of 330 AM. GDOT road cams and ground
stations aren`t showing dense fog as of yet however. There is a 60%
chance of a Dense Fog Advisory being issued for portions of
northwest Georgia before 8 AM this morning. Isolated patches of fog
could occur as far south as Atlanta, but the odds of a Dense Fog
Advisory being issued for the Metro are very low (5%).

An upper level trough moving through the Northern Plains will
finally provide the required nudge to move the closed upper level
low over Kentucky and Tennessee towards the Mid-Atlantic today. As
this occurs, scattered rain showers are expected over the
Appalachians. A few of these showers may extend as far south as the
north Georgia mountains. Any accumulations should be very light (<
0.10 inches). Diurnal heating this afternoon should help additional
isolated (10% chance) rain shower activity develop along and south
of Interstate 20 between 2 PM and 8 PM. These showers will be
working with a very shallow layer of instability (100-300 J/kg of
MUCAPE below 700 mb) and this should prevent lighting from being a
concern. Any impacts from rainfall to Helene clean up activities
should be brief and minimal.

High temperatures in north and central Georgia will be a mix of 70s
and 80s today. The cooler values are expected in northwest Georgia
(upper 70s) where lingering cloud cover will hinder daytime heating.
More sunshine south of Interstate 20 should allow highs to climb
into the mid 80s.

Tonight & Tuesday:

Calm winds, lingering low level moisture and decreasing cloud cover
should set the region up for patchy dense fog again tonight.
Confidence in the placement and timing of any fog is poor in the CAM
guidance. Trends however would support the highest fog potential
north of Interstate 20. Any fog should clear by 9 AM Tuesday.

Uneventful weather is expected on Tuesday. Despite the passage of a
weak upper level trough axis, temperatures should move upwards by a
couple of degrees compared to today. Our forecast favors afternoon
highs that are 2 to 5 degrees above seasonal averages. This
translates to highs in the 80s for everywhere except the higher
elevations of the north Georgia Mountains (highs in the 70s there).

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Key Messages:

 - Dry weather is favored in the region between Wednesday and
   Friday.

 - Tropical Cyclone development remains possible (50% chance) in
   the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea over the next 7 days.

Wednesday through Friday:

Weak upper level ridging should build into the region during this
period and this will keep the dry conditions going through at least
Thursday. Most of the region should be dry Friday as well, though
uncertainty regarding tropical activity has lead us to introduce
some small precipitation chances (25% or less) across central
Georgia. Forecast confidence in the temperature forecast in central
Georgia during this period is high due to very small spread (~3
degrees) amongst the global ensembles. In northern Georgia
(including the Atlanta Metro) our confidence in the high temperature
forecast is lower. A surface high over the Mid-Atlantic may result
in a wedge front in north Georgia by Thursday. Several of the GEFS,
EPS and GEPS members are catching on to this possibility and this is
leading to an elevated degree of spread (5-7 degrees) between the
25th and 75th percentiles of the guidance.

Tropical Concerns Next Weekend:

Trends in the global ensemble guidance have been in our favor over
the last 24 hours. The majority of the EPS and GEFS members are now
wanting to push a weak cold front through our region between Friday
and Saturday. This has resulted in a southeastward shift in the
track of any potential tropical activity in the model guidance. Most
of the ensemble members now place the greatest risk for tropical
activity over Florida. While this could be good for Georgia,
forecast confidence at this range remains low. Thus with the
National Hurricane Center maintaining a 50% chance for tropical
development in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea over the next 7
day the forecast should still be monitored.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Patchy dense fog will be possible in northern Georgia through 14Z
Monday. Where fog doesn`t occur, IFR/MVFR ceilings may occur
(mainly north of KATL). There is a small chance (15%) for fog at
KATL between 09Z and 13Z Monday. Winds will be light (3 to 8 kt)
from the west southwest (240-300 degrees) between 14Z today and
00Z Tuesday. Isolated rain showers will be possible between 18Z
today and 00Z Tuesday. The odds of a shower at any of the TAF
sites are very low (10%).

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Overall confidence in the KATL TAF is moderate.
Low confidence in the occurrence of fog between 09Z and 13Z Monday.
Low confidence in showers between 18Z Monday and 00Z Tuesday.
High confidence in all other elements of the forecast.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          81  64  82  62 /  10  10   0   0
Atlanta         80  64  81  64 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     74  57  76  57 /  30   0  10   0
Cartersville    79  62  81  61 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        85  67  85  65 /  10   0   0   0
Gainesville     79  63  81  62 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           85  66  85  64 /  10   0   0   0
Rome            80  62  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  81  63  81  62 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         87  69  86  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Albright