684
FXUS62 KFFC 100017
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
717 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024



...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 714 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

No major adjustments to the forecast at this time. The big
challenge over the next 24 hrs will be keying in on the wedge`s
reaction to the stalling front and increased Atlantic moisture.
Current models continue to try pinching off flow supporting the
wedge allowing it to break down, however low level dry air will
likely be more stubborn to move than that. Either way, moisture
within the wedge region should moisten through tomorrow and fog
may become a hazard Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Wedge front continues to move in from the NE this afternoon. The
wedge is well depicted within the dewpoint field. In addition, right
along the edge of the wedge isolated/scattered showers have
developed. A cold front is currently across the central portion of
the US. This boundary will move slowly east through the period,
funneling tropical moisture northward from the GOMEX ahead of it.

The wedge is currently depicted by the intrusion of drier dewpoints,
but this should change as low level moisture off the Atlantic
increases. Shra will be likely across the eastern half of the CWA
overnight. The cold front out west will also slowly drop southeast
during the day Sunday into Sunday night, bringing higher chances for
rain to the NW portions of the state. The front will likely weaken
as it moves south and away from the best mid level forcing.

Higher winds tonight should keep any fog and/or dense fog patchy.
However, widespread fog and/or dense fog is possible Sunday night
into Monday morning.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 218 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Key Messages:

  - Temperatures run 5-10 degrees above average for November Monday
    and Tuesday. Some light rain remains possible Monday.

  - Another system may bring rain chances by the middle to end of
    next week.

Forecast:

By Monday, the upper level system responsible for the weekend
rainfall will be moving out of the northeast with another shortwave
riding in behind it. Given how far north the upper level forcing is,
the cold front will become aligned with the upper level flow and
likely stop over the CWA. Some moisture along it may be able to
squeeze out some additional rainfall through the day, but this looks
to be isolated to scattered at best. One caveat may be that a little
bit of the leftover moisture from the likely decayed tropical system
may be able to make its way into the area, which could bring some
additional rain. The only other story with this will be that the
high temps both Monday and Tuesday will be 5-10 degrees above
average across the area.

By Wednesday, strong surface high pressure looks progged to set up
shop over the northeast. Looking very likely we get wedged for the
400th (mild exaggeration) this fall. After this, uncertainty gets
a bit higher. Another system is expected to approach the area
with a negatively tilted trough into Thursday. Models had been
trending a bit drier, but the most recent runs on the Euro side
have suddenly gotten a bit more moist, with the operational run
really going in on the rainfall. The GFS and GEFS continue to show
a front again losing forcing before reaching the area, limiting
rainfall chances. Current forecast continues with more limited
PoPs Thursday, as want to see more consistency out of Euro suite,
especially given some of the struggles it had with the system in
the Gulf.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

MVFR to low VFR conditions will gradually deteriorate through
Monday morning. Return to IFR during day tomorrow and low IFR by
afternoon. -SHRA around wedge front, most likely on western ATL,
though could extend into eastern ATL. Winds remain on east side,
tapering off Sunday afternoon/evening. As winds decrease, FG will
likely develop over central GA and expand across the region
through Monday morning. Low VSBY and Cigs are possible.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          52  60  55  74 /  20  30  40  20
Atlanta         56  62  59  74 /  20  20  40  20
Blairsville     50  58  53  69 /  20  30  70  30
Cartersville    56  63  58  73 /  20  30  60  20
Columbus        62  72  63  80 /  20  20  20  20
Gainesville     53  59  56  72 /  20  30  50  20
Macon           59  69  61  78 /  20  20  20  10
Rome            58  65  58  74 /  30  30  70  20
Peachtree City  56  64  58  75 /  20  20  40  20
Vidalia         64  73  66  81 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...SM