425
FXUS62 KFFC 191056
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
656 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 514 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Key Messages:

  - Warm temperatures across north and central Georgia today with
highs reaching into the mid to upper 80s. Record high at Atlanta is
88, which has a chance of being tied or broken.

  - System approaches from the west on Sunday, bringing some cloud
cover, though rain chances don`t appear until Monday.

Forecast:

Some cloud cover is noted on satellite across northern GA this
morning with a few streaks of cirrus. Visibilities are mostly fine,
but could see a few areas of very patchy fog, especially near some
bodies of water. Subtropical ridging builds into the CWA today that
will bring very warm conditions. Afternoon mixing may allow for a
little "overperformance" of highs compared to some of the models,
which puts us solidly in the mid to upper 80s across the CWA. The
record high at Atlanta is likely the only one to be in jeopardy, as
other climate sites have records in the 90s when compared to the 88
in Atlanta set in 1941. Otherwise, some afternoon cumulus may set up
as the boundary layer moisture mixes out during the afternoon.
Enough moisture advection appears to have occurred to prevent fire
danger concerns this afternoon, but this will need to be monitored.
Lows tonight will be in the 60s, which will be 7-20 degrees normal
than warmer depending on the location.

Subtropical ridge creeps to the east with NW flow to the west
beginning to slowly push east towards the CWA as shortwave ejects
from the 4 corners region into the Great Plains and begins to
quickly work towards the midwest on Sunday. Moisture draw ahead of
the attendant surface low and front may allow for some cloud
cover to work into northern and western Georgia during the day on
Sunday, and the increased boundary layer moisture will likely keep
actual temperatures a few degrees cooler than today. Record high
for Atlanta is once again 88 on Sunday compared to 90s for the
other sites, though probabilities of reaching that appear to be a
bit lower than today.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 514 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Starting off the long term should start to see the upper level
ridging begin to break down finally with the upper level system to
our west beginning to translate into the mid MS valley. Into monday
the upper level low swings into the Great Lakes region pushing the
front into the northern portions of Georgia by as early as Monday
morning. With the dynamics of the low well to our north and no
discernible upper level features to help push the front further
south, expecting the front to stall somewhere over north and central
Georgia which will increase rainfall along that boundary through
Tuesday. With quasi-zonal flow in store beginning Tuesday into
Wednesday not expecting any really strong forcing mechanisms for
showers and more at the mercy of small shortwaves moving through the
overall flow. This ultimately results in almost daily rain
chances for the long term although chances remain ~30% due to some
uncertainty. Expecting these showers to mainly be in the
afternoons and diurnally driven. With the above normal
temperatures going into the long term, will likely see
thunderstorms associated with these showers as well. Current
rainfall totals for the Monday/Tuesday system continue to be at
1".

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

VFR through TAF period. Mostly high, sparse cloud cover, but some
afternoon cu will be possible at metro TAF sites. Winds will be
from the SW at 5-9 kts through the afternoon before going lighter
tonight. Elevated VFR cigs will build in tonight ahead of an
approaching system.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High all elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          86  61  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         87  65  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     83  58  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    88  63  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        88  62  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     86  62  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           88  61  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            87  61  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  87  61  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         89  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Lusk