278
FXUS62 KFFC 070919
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
419 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

 - Heavy rain, flooding and flash flooding will remain possible
   through this evening over areas south and east of Macon. A
   Flood Watch remains in place for a portion of east central
   Georgia.

 - Rain will move back in on Sunday with amounts up to one-half
   inch over north Georgia by midday Monday.

 - Relatively warm and moist conditions will persist through at
   least Wednesday. Temperatures will be above average (by 8 to
   16 degrees) today and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

For Today:

The main concern for today will be the continued threat for
flooding in east central Georgia. Despite fairly sparse weather
station coverage, several gauge sites in east central Georgia have
measured over 3 inches of rain in the last 24 hours. This
includes one site in Dublin with over 5 inches of rain. Radar
estimated rainfall (which provides better spatial coverage)
matches up well with the gauge data, and suggests an arc of 3 to 6
inches of rain from McRae to Dublin to Swainsboro. Isolated
totals over 8 inches are estimated just east of Swainsboro. CAM
guidance suggests that an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is
possible by noon today. Per HREF guidance there is a 20 to 40%
chance of an additional 2 inches along and east of a line from
McRae to Dublin. This combination of rain that has occurred, and
what could still occur suggests a continued flood threat in east
central Georgia. Thus we elected to continue the Flood Watch for
east central Georgia. The Flood Watch has been canceled for areas
further west where the threat of heavy rainfall has concluded
(Macon area). The majority of the rainfall that has yet to fall
should occur before noon today. Thus the day shift will have an
opportunity to reevaluate the need for a watch and potentially
cancel it early. For the time being it appears that the very dry
soil conditions prior to this rain event have limited any rises on
local rivers. Thus the risk for river flooding should remain
limited and isolated.

A few light rain showers could occur in west or north Georgia
today. However, this activity should be spares and most people
living in these regions will experience dry weather. Low clouds
will be widespread, and due to the continued wedge they should be
slow to break up today. In fact a number of the CAMs don`t support
any clearing today and this would fit with typical wedge trends.
The cloud cover should limit today`s high temperatures, but since
we will be starting off the day with temperatures near 70 degrees,
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s are still expected.

Tonight & Friday:

Weak wedging should remain in place tonight and this should
combine with moisture from recent rainfall to promote widespread
low cloud cover overnight. Areas of patchy fog may occur,
especially over areas of eastern Georgia that received significant
rainfall over the last 24 hours.

The wedge should fade on Friday as a trough moving through the
Northeast U.S. eats into the ridge over the Atlantic. This should
lead to light winds across Georgia. The tropical moisture will
remain entrenched over the state, but with no strong forcing for
lift widespread rainfall is improbable. That said a few light rain
showers may still occur (20% chance in central Georgia). High
temperatures on Friday should be near 80 degrees, which will be 8
to 16 degrees above seasonal averages.

Albright

&&


.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

No significant weather hazards or forecast concerns expected in
the long term period.

Large upper low over the SWUS will finally eject NE into the
central plains on Saturday then into the Great Lakes states on
Sunday. A trailing front should push into north Georgia Sunday
with perhaps some enhanced moisture from Rafael. Not a lot of
instability but could see some TSRA Sunday afternoon.

Interesting pattern shift early next week and high amplitude
ridging develops over the central and eastern CONUS just to our
west. Above normal amount of uncertainty as global model ensembles
differ on whether a short wave develops in NNW flow to the east
of this ridge and moves into GA potentially brining a brief
cool/dry snap as indicated by 20% or so of members, but overall
probabilities of this are low. General NW flow should prevail
through Wed then increasing high clouds, temps and low level
moisture as upper ridge axis pushes east of us. Above normal temps
should continue for some time.

The center of Hurricane Rafael will remain in the Gulf of Mexico
as it moves slowly west through early next week. Additional
tropical development is possible (30%) over the Leeward Islands
through the southeastern Bahamas over the next 7 days.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

Ceilings should range from MVFR (1000-2000 ft AGL) in northwest
Georgia to IFR and LIFR (300-1000 ft AGL) in central Georgia
through 15Z today. From 15Z to 03Z Friday a mix of MVFR and IFR
ceilings are expected. Patchy visibility restrictions of 1 to 5 SM
may occur before 15Z today. Areas of rain will continue in eastern
and central Georgia through 00Z Friday. East (040-090) winds of 3
to 8 knots will continue through 06Z Friday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Moderate confidence in the KATL TAF.
High confidence in the wind forecast.
Moderate confidence in sub 1000 ft ceilings through 18Z Thursday.
Low confidence in additional precipitation in the next 36 hours.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  64  78  60 /  30  10  10   0
Atlanta         76  65  78  63 /  20  10  10   0
Blairsville     77  58  78  55 /  10  10   0   0
Cartersville    79  63  80  60 /  10  10   0   0
Columbus        79  68  80  65 /  20  20  20  10
Gainesville     76  64  79  62 /  20  10  10   0
Macon           76  66  79  63 /  60  20  20   0
Rome            80  62  80  57 /  10  10   0   0
Peachtree City  76  63  79  61 /  20  10  10   0
Vidalia         78  70  81  66 /  80  20  20   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ074>076-083>086-096>098-
107>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...Albright