508
FXUS62 KFFC 150847
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
347 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

An upper low over the mid-Atlantic states will move offshore today. A
weak high pressure ridge over the MS Valley will shift E to W GA by
late Saturday. At the surface, low pressure near Cape Hatteras will
shift offshore. A high pressure ridge over the MS Valley will shift E
to the OH Valley. Low cloudiness across the SE portion of the area
will gradually thin as the upper low moves away from the area and dry
air filters into the region. More low clouds over NW GA will be
slower to clear today. Patchy fog will clear by mid-morning in most
areas. NW winds will be generally light, but a few gusts over 15 mph
will be possible by late morning and into the early afternoon. High
temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 50s in the NE
mountains to the upper 60s across the S.

Under mostly clear skies and light winds tonight, cool temperatures
will prevail (albeit close to normal). Readings will range from the
mid 30s in the NE mountains to the mid 40s in the extreme S. Patchy
frost is possible in the coldest spots of the NE. Patchy fog is
possible from near Athens to Macon. On Saturday, mostly sunny skies
are expected with high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to near
70 area-wide. /SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

At a glance:

 - High pressure to start the long term.

 - A cold front on Wednesday will bring a change in atmosphere.

As the long term picks up we`re set to continue unseasonably warm
weather Monday and into Tuesday thanks largely to a lingering
Bermuda High that`s as reluctant to let go over warm weather as I
am. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s during the
afternoon with overnight lows in the upper 50s and low 60s. For this
time of year, that`s around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Unfortunately, all good things come to an end. A strong low pressure
is set to form in the desert SW on Monday and move into the Great
Lakes region by Wednesday. Both the EURO and GFS are in pretty good
agreement that this system will drag a cold front through the SE
knocking temps down into the 50s and 60s with overnight lows closer
to what we`d expect for mid November; upper 30s and low 40s.
Agreement ends there though, the Euro is indicating that this system
will bring a good shot of precip while the GFS trends on the dry
side. Instability with this front is meager at best, though more is
possible depending on the front`s timing. A later arrival could
generate more daytime heating allowing for the possibility of a few
scattered thunderstorms. At this time the probability of any severe
weather appears low.  After the front moves through toward the end
of the long term both models have radically different solutions.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

Low cigs from AHN to MCN and points SE will continue to push SE and
erode from the NW side as drier air filters into the area. More low
clouds are noted on satellite pix across extreme NW GA. Patchier low
clouds and fog are occurring in between these 2 masses of clouds,
including around the Atlanta metro area. Conditions are expected to
gradually improve across the board through the rest of the night. The
lowest cigs and vsbys will continue at AHN (LIFR) for the next few
hours, but even there conditions will show improvement before
daybreak. Skies are expected to clear out by mid-morning at most
locations with generally light NW winds (although a few gusts to 15
kts are possible during the late morning and afternoon).

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on cigs and vsbys through the early morning, high for other
elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  41  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         64  44  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     59  37  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    63  39  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        69  45  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     65  43  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           67  43  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            64  40  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  65  39  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         67  46  69  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...SEC