026
FXUS62 KFFC 281734
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1234 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 254 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

Key Messages

 - Dry weather will persist through the short term, and a Fire
   Danger Statement has been issued for the entire area again today.

 - Critical fire weather conditions are again expected Saturday. A
   dry cold front will increase winds, potentially causing Red Flag
   Warning criteria to be reached.

Surface high pressure builds eastward across the region today,
bringing continued clear skies and temperate conditions. High
temperatures will warm some 5-8 degrees above normal. As has been
the case the last few days, fire weather will be the chief forecast
concern today. Current observations continue to indicate little in
the way of moisture recovery early this morning in the wake of
yesterday`s cold front. Dewpoints today were thus adjusted below NBM
with a CONSShort/ARW/HRRR blend this afternoon yielding minimum RH
values ranging from the teens to low 20 percent range. A Fire Danger
Statement was already issued for today and will remain in effect
given very dry conditions.

Saturday will bring the approach of a dry cold front which will
sweep across the area during the afternoon. The result will be
increasingly gusty west to NW winds through the afternoon and a
reinforced dry airmass. Dewpoints and resultant RH values were again
adjusted below NBM for Saturday afternoon. Amid the increased NW
winds (15-20 mph sustained with gusts 25-30+ mph), dry airmass, and
ongoing dry fuels, Red Flag conditions are may be reached on
Saturday.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 254 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

Key Messages

 - High fire danger conditions are expected through Monday with very
   dry fuels and low relative humidity values.

 - The next chance of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated to be
   late Tuesday into Wednesday.

The period will start out with an upper trough E of the MS Valley.
The axis of the trough will be just E of the forecast area with NW
flow across the region. At the surface, a dry cold front will be
exiting the area, ushering in much cooler air. Lows Sunday morning
will range from the mid 20s across the NE mountains to near 40 across
the extreme SE. Daytime highs on Sunday will range from the upper 40s
across the N to the lower 60s in the extreme S. These temperatures
will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal across most of the area. Minimum
relative humidity values will drop to 20 to 25 percent, continuing
increased fire danger.

The upper trough will shift off the eastern seaboard of the U.S. by
Monday. Upper flow will become more zonal, with a weak ridge
possibly developing ahead of a small, weakening shortwave moving
across the lower OH Valley. High temperatures will rebound, ranging
from near 50 in the highest elevations of the NE mountains to the mid
60s across the S.

A much more significant shortwave will dig over the Central Plains on
Tuesday. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over KS by Tuesday
morning, then lift NE to near Chicago by Wednesday morning. Moisture
will rapidly advect ahead of the associated cold front. The amount of
instability is uncertain, particularly as the frontal precipitation
is expected to arrive late Tuesday night. Dynamic energy will be
stronger across N GA during this time period, and this may make up
for the lack of thermodynamic energy. As the front progresses SE,
instability will increase, but dynamic energy will be waning. As a
result, isolated thunderstorms are expected. Some thunderstorms may
be strong, with gusty winds the greatest threat. Timing and storm
mode will be further refined as we get closer to the event. Storm
total rainfall amounts are forecast to range from near an inch across
the N to less than a half inch S of Columbus and Macon. Cooler
temperatures will return behind the front by Thursday. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR through the period. Low end gusts possible this afternoon.
Gusts to around 25kt possible tomorrow afternoon. Winds will
remain on the west side.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence all elements.
NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  46  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         68  48  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     61  40  60  24 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    67  45  67  29 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        72  44  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     65  47  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           72  44  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            68  43  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  69  45  70  32 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         73  47  77  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-
066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...NListemaa