314
FXUS62 KFFC 041422
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1022 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...Morning Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

A blanket of low clouds and increasing shower activity is the
theme for this Morning morning as a wedge remains firmly in place.
Aided by isentropic lift and increasing moisture shower activity
has begun to increase from south to north. With limited
instability, thunder activity remains confined to the Florida
Panhandle and far southern Georgia at this time. However,
isolated thunderstorms will remain a possibility as we head into
the afternoon and evening. Over the past 24-hr rainfall totals of
1.5 to 3.5 inches were observed over much of Central Georgia.
Isolated higher totals up to 4 inches were also observed. Right
now, 1-hr MRMS estimates of 0.50 to 0.80 inches at most with this
with heavier activity moving through parts of Central Georgia
(just north of Macon). Though rainfall rates are expected to
increase over the course of the day and given antecedent
conditions, flash flooding and river/stream/creek responses will
be things to monitor. The Flood Watch will likely be expanded
eastward later this afternoon as latest hi-res guidance paints
some of the higher rainfall activity setting up across areas along
and east of the I-85 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Key Messages:

 - A Flood Watch is in effect through this evening for the
   western two-thirds of the area including the Atlanta Metro and
   Macon.

 - Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated
   higher amounts remain possible through Tuesday within the
   watch area.

 - `Cool` below normal temperatures will stick around through
   Tuesday with forecast high temperatures mainly in the 60s and
   70s.


Current radar loop shows scattered lite showers and drizzle
across north and central GA. We are still under the influence of
the wedge of high pressure that continues to build SW down the
eastern seaboard. This wedge is keeping things very stable across
the CWA as we have not seen much in the way of thunder over the
past few days. This wedge is expected to continue to dominate the
weather pattern into the long term forecast periods keeping north
and central GA in a moist/stable environment. The stationary front
that has been stalled over south GA will begin to push back
northward bringing deep moisture with it. This moisture is almost
tropical like as PWs stay in the 1.5" to 2.5" range through the
short term. Current QPF amounts are 1-2 inches Today and Tue
across the area. Things tapper off on expected precipitation
totals Wed but this still gives us a 3 day total of 2-4 inches
with isolated higher amounts. The higher amounts are still mainly
across central GA but they are creeping a bit north with the
boundary. WPC has placed the majority of our CWA under a Slight
risk area for flooding and we have continued with the flood watch
across most of our CWA as well. Temps will continue to be below
seasonal norms with highs Today and Tues mainly in the 60s and 70s
with some 80s across our southern CWA.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 409 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Key Messages:

 - Flooding issues potentially linger through mid-week, with
daily showers and storms continuing into the weekend.

 - Cooler than normal temperatures mid-week, returning to
near normal late week and over the weekend.

The wet conditions and flooding concerns from the start of the
week will linger through Wednesday. The driving force behind this
will continue to be the combination of a mid-level trough
extending down over the region from the Great Lakes, and a
frontal boundary sitting over the southern half of Georgia. Large
scale ascent from the nearby trough combined with plentiful
moisture (PWAT values over 2") in mid-level S/SW flow will
support widespread showers and thunderstorms during the day
Wednesday. With several days of rainfall leading up to this, both
flash flooding and river/creek/stream flooding are possible.
Thankfully, conditions will slightly dry for the end of the week
and over the weekend as the trough axis centers shifts a bit east
and stalls out, centering over Georgia. PWAT values will fall to
around 1.5-1.75", supporting more of our typical diurnally driven
isolated-scattered showers and storms for this time of year.
Severe weather and flooding threats will be low (but non-
zero) during this period.

Temperatures during the long term period will start off cooler
than normal with the lingering wedge, but will gradually warm
back up to near normal by the weekend.

Culver

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Isolated showers and drizzle across the area this morning with
increasing precipitation this afternoon/evening. Expecting mainly
IFR ceilings with brief periods of MVFR through the period. East
winds in the 6-12kt range with higher afternoon gust will also
continue. VSBYs will be in the VFR to MVFR range.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  63  74  65 /  80  80  80  70
Atlanta         70  65  75  67 /  80  80  80  60
Blairsville     71  59  71  62 /  70  80  70  60
Cartersville    74  64  76  67 /  70  70  70  50
Columbus        76  69  82  70 /  90  80  80  50
Gainesville     71  63  72  66 /  70  70  70  60
Macon           75  68  84  69 /  90  70  80  70
Rome            75  64  78  66 /  60  60  60  40
Peachtree City  71  64  77  67 /  80  70  80  60
Vidalia         81  70  88  71 /  80  50  80  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>005-007-
011>014-019>022-030>034-041>049-052>060-066>073-078>084-089>097-
102>111.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...01