600
FXUS62 KFFC 072326
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
626 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Key Messages

- Temperatures remain above normal across the region through the
weekend.

- A weak stalled front could initiated some isolated showers across
the state this afternoon and tonight. A stray rumble of thunder
cannot be completely ruled out south of I20 this afternoon.

A stalling frontal system continues to leave a smattering of broken
clouds across central and North GA today. This should begin to thin
slightly as daytime heating begins to mix shallow moisture out this
afternoon. That said, the weak forcing could tap into any CAPE which
develops this afternoon south of I20. Precipitation should remain
mostly light and isolated but a stray rumble of thunder cannot be
completely ruled out from Columbus over to Macon.

Upper level zonal flow won`t be too quick to move the sfc boundary
out of the area with much haste. Dreary conditions will likely
continue through the overnight hours will isolated showers drifting
back into North GA overnight into tomorrow morning. No significant
accumulations are expected with this.

PoPs increase out of the Northwest on Saturday afternoon as
reinforcing cooler air pushes a more robust cold front into the area.
Limited upper level support will continue to be the theme, however
adequate shear and modest mid level CAPE may be sufficient for a
couple of storms to develop. Not anticipating widespread severe at
this time, however the possibility of an isolated strong storm is
non-zero. Accumulations through the entire short term will more than
likely be less than 0.25" for everyone.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 214 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Quasi-zonal upper level flow will still be in place over the
Southeast as the long term period begins. Meanwhile, a shortwave
moving through from the Midwest to the Atlantic Coast will continue
to intensify an associated surface low just offshore of the Mid-
Atlantic. As this system moves east-northeast over the course of the
day, a trailing cold front will work its way through the Tennessee
Valley towards north Georgia. This front will continue to weaken and
become diffuse as it advances into the far northern tier, with
chances for showers diminishing as it sags southward. In the wake of
the front and with increased cloud cover, temperatures in far north
and west Georgia will be slightly cooler than other parts of the
forecast area - in the 60s and low 70s roughly to the north of I-85
and in the mid 70s to low 80s to the south. With the frontal
boundary stalling as weak disturbances continue to traverse the
upper level flow, slight to low-end chance PoPs will continue
overnight into Monday. Somewhat cooler air is anticipated to linger
across far north Georgia on Monday, with temperatures starting the
morning in the mid 40s and increasing into the mid 50s to low 60s in
the afternoon. Elsewhere in the CWA, temperatures will be
comparatively warmer, with lows in the 50s and highs ranging from
the mid 60s to upper 70s.

Monday into Tuesday, a longwave trough will dig southward into the
western CONUS and the upper level flow pattern will gradually shift
to southwesterly, which will serve to bring more warm air and deep
atmospheric moisture into the Southeast. By Tuesday morning, surface
high pressure over the Northeast will drive a CAD wedge down the lee
side of the Appalachians and into northeast Georgia. Temperatures in
the easterly flow within this wedge will be significantly cooler
(struggling to get above 50 degrees) compared to the spring-like
temperatures elsewhere in Georgia. Widespread rain showers in north
Georgia overrunning the wedge are furthermore likely to reinforce
the cool dome underneath. Speaking of which, a series of shortwaves
will traverse the SW upper flow, sending frontal systems
northeastward through the forecast area from Tuesday through the end
of the week. Exact timing and characteristics of these systems
remain difficult to nail down, though 12-hour periods with the
heaviest rainfall appear to be most likely during the daytime on
Tuesday and on Thursday at this time.

High dewpoints and precipitable water values will allow these
systems to be efficient rain producers, and rainfall totals from
Tuesday-Friday have increased from the previous forecast run.
Rainfall totals over this time window are forecast to range from 3-5
inches across north Georgia, with progressively lower amounts to the
south. The potential for hydrologic concerns will need to be
monitored as the extended period comes more into focus, particularly
in the later parts of the week. Considering very warm/moist
conditions over the Gulf and Deep South, and cooler temperatures
aloft further inland, there will be sufficient instability for
convection and isolated to scattered thunderstorms, in central
Georgia on Tuesday and in central and north Georgia on Wednesday and
Thursday.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

VFR conditions will again deteriorate overnight. MVFR cigs will
become more prevalent from 06-08Z with IFR cigs likely by 09-11Z.
Patchy LIFR cigs will also be possible along with areas of fog,
particularly at CSG/MCN. Cigs will slowly improve toward MVFR by
16-18Z with VFR conditions again expected by 18-20Z. Iso -SHRA
also is possible, mainly 07-10Z. Current W winds will trend to
near calm/light and vrb by 03Z with SW winds prevailing after
10-12Z with speeds increasing from 3-5 kts early to 6-10 kts by
afternoon.


//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on cig progression and fog coverage.
High confidence on winds.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          55  75  62  76 /  20  30  30  30
Atlanta         58  74  61  73 /  20  20  40  40
Blairsville     49  69  51  65 /  20  30  60  20
Cartersville    51  76  55  68 /  20  20  60  20
Columbus        60  78  61  78 /  20  20  10  20
Gainesville     54  72  62  72 /  20  30  50  20
Macon           59  79  61  79 /  20  20  10  20
Rome            50  75  53  66 /  20  20  60  20
Peachtree City  57  75  61  75 /  20  20  30  30
Vidalia         60  82  60  81 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...RW