Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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697 FXUS62 KFFC 010022 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 822 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...Heat Advisory Expired at 8PM... .UPDATE... Issued at 812 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Heat advisory has been allowed to expire as temps begin to decrease with sunset. Many locations within the advisory saw heat indices between 105 and 109 this afternoon. Parts of west central GA remain close to heat advisory issuance - overnight shift will evaluate for any issuance. Lusk && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 145 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Afternoon spotty thunderstorms area-wide this afternoon, with greatest PoPs along a weak frontal boundary moving out of NW GA towards the SE. No widespread severe is expected at this time, however thunderstorms could become strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Drier air is present behind the frontal boundary with PWATs <1.5". This will contrast what we have seen this past week with PWATs >1.8". The frontal boundary will likely stall near the ATL metro, meaning areas south of I20 will remain soupy through the short term outlook. Scattered thunderstorms return tomorrow, however these should generally remain along and south of a line from CSG to MCN (in the moist air). The main thing to watch for will be temperatures. Highs in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints in the 70s will see heat indices climb to near 100 once again. Eastern and West Central GA will see heat indices in excess of 105. Tomorrow, the hottest conditions will be in Central GA near Columbus and Macon where heat indices of 103+ is expected. Conditions will feel a bit cooler North of I20 where dewpoints could be as low as the mid 60s. SM && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday morning through next Saturday) Issued at 145 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Tuesday will be the last day in the post frontal airmass which will be noticeably drier..with near climo max Ts on Tuesday which will be supplanted by a warming trend and increased moisture through the remainder of the week. 500mb ridge over the southern plains on Tuesday will shift and center over the SE US by Wednesday while surface ridge shifts off the east coast putting the region back into a slight moisture advection regime. Pops, while non-zero, will be noticeably lower and below climo through the 4th. Temps on the 4th will rise into the mid 90s with dewpoints topping out in the upper 60s thus keeping heat indices around the 100 across the area and below advisory thresholds...at least for now. Will need to keep on eye on trends in the dewpoints the coming days as that will play a bigger role in the index. By late on the 4th into Friday, the pattern begins to break down as Beryl will be located near the Yucatan along the southwestern periphery of the SE US mid level ridge and shortwave energy dives SE from the upper midwest into the Ohio Valley. The SE ridge begins to fill as heights lower across the region allowing for an uptick in diurnal convection going into the weekend. Weak boundary approaches with upper midwest energy swinging through the the north by Saturday and with no discernible capping, should see a bit more diurnal coverage of storms through the weekend. As for Beryl...still a bit of uncertainty in the track beyond the Yucatan and there`s still a good bit of spread in the extended due to models not handling the breakdown of the SE ridge with any consistency. The trend is to have a break in the ridge over TX and the western Gulf which may allow for the system or its remnants to turn north but that would only assume it doesn`t stay south into Central America which is also represented by a large chunk of ensemble members. At this point, it does not appear to be direct threat to our region more than increased moisture and precip chances at the end of the extended IF it takes the northerly route into the NW Gulf. 30 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 743 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 VFR expected through TAF period. Ongoing convection to north of metro TAF sites should end before impacting airfields, but will need to keep close watch. Otherwise, winds remain NW overnight at 3-7 kts, shifting to the NE in the morning in 14-16Z time period picking up to 5-10 kts. Expecting some TSRA chances at CSG and MCN tomorrow afternoon - metro sites, including ATL, has uncertainty. Not confident enough in seeing storms for a PROB30 introduction in this TAF cycle, but will reevaluate in future forecasts. FEW to SCT cu field expected during afternoon hours. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium convective chances in metro (see above), high all others. Lusk && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 73 91 68 85 / 40 20 30 10 Atlanta 75 93 72 86 / 20 20 20 20 Blairsville 67 87 63 82 / 20 20 20 10 Cartersville 70 92 70 89 / 10 10 10 10 Columbus 76 97 74 86 / 30 40 30 50 Gainesville 73 89 69 85 / 20 20 20 10 Macon 74 94 70 84 / 40 50 30 40 Rome 72 92 70 90 / 10 0 10 10 Peachtree City 73 94 70 86 / 20 20 20 20 Vidalia 76 94 72 85 / 40 80 60 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lusk LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...Lusk