965
FXUS62 KFFC 042349
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
649 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 149 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Key Messages:

 - Increasing cloudiness tonight with light rain and mountain snow
   flurries.

 - A return to colder temperatures by Thursday night.

W-WNW upper flow is ongoing in the base of a trough over the E
U.S. A shortwave will dive SE over the Great Lakes tonight before
lifting NE across New England on Thursday. This will shift upper
flow back to NW and usher in a return to colder air by the end of
the short term period. At the surface, a high pressure ridge
centered just S of the County Warning Area (CWA) will be shunted
SE as a cold front sweeps across the area late tonight and on
Thursday.

Early afternoon temperatures today range from near 40 in the NE
mountains to the lower 50s in the S. Morning high-based stratus
across the N has thinned out. Cirrus has begun to spread across
the area from the W.

Clouds will continue to increase this evening and overnight.
Model guidance has continued to shift the focus of precipitation
associated with this front farther to the SW, with only a few
hundredths of an inch expected in the W and N portions of our
area. It appears that the best chance of snow flurries or a
rain/snow mix will be over the NE mountains after midnight tonight
into early Thursday morning. No accumulations are expected at
this time.

Overnight lows tonight will be warmer than last nights, ranging
from near freezing in the NE mountains to near 40 in the S. Colder
air will begin filtering in behind the cold front on Thursday. As
a result, highs across the N will be cooler than today`s, while
highs across the S will be a bit warmer. The cold front will exit
the area before sunset Thursday. Much colder low temperatures will
return for Thursday night, ranging from the teens N and NW of the
Atlanta metro area to near 30 across the extreme S. /SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 149 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Key Messages:

- Warming temperatures are expected through the weekend and early
next week.

- Rain returns Monday, with the potential to drop meaningful
rainfall amounts.

Persisting northwesterly flow will reinforce the cold continental
airmass over the region Friday and Saturday, but as the high
pressure ridge axis shifts southeast over the Atlantic by the
weekend, the area is left open to moisture advection from the next
weather system. Models are in agreement with showing lower
Mississippi moisture blossoming and extending north and east
around the periphery of the ridge by late Sunday into early
Monday. The swath of moisture nears the northwest GA corner Monday
morning, spreading south and east through the day. Although there
appears to be a period of reprieve Tuesday even with lingering
moisture, a shortwave over the northern Gulf reinvigorates the
rain potential, producing a second, more significant, wave of
precipitation over the state. With above normal temperatures,
wintry precip is not a concern. Thunderstorms are not expected at
this time.

This setup, with copious Gulf moisture, will support meaningful
rainfall over much of the state. As of this time, around 2.5-3
inches are possible over western and northern GA, with locally
higher amounts in the orographically influenced NE GA mountains.
Eastern portions of the state are progged to get slightly less:
1-2 inches. Of course, adjustments in these totals are expected
given this event is next week. Stay tuned.

LGB

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

VFR conditions this evening will prevail with clouds and cigs in
the 6-8 kft range initially on the increase through 05Z. MVFR cigs
in the 1.5-2.5 kft range become more likely by 08-10Z with IFR
cigs most probable at CSG. -RA is possible, primarily at CSG,
with only spotty -RA elsewhere, mainly between 06-12Z before
quickly diminishing. Cigs are expected to improve to VFR by 15-17Z
with clearing skies thereafter. Winds will be SW to W at 6-12 kts
through 12Z, becoming NW at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts
thereafter.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on cig timing.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          40  54  22  47 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         43  52  24  45 /  30   0   0   0
Blairsville     33  43  15  40 /  20  10   0   0
Cartersville    41  50  20  43 /  30   0   0   0
Columbus        42  58  27  50 /  70  20   0   0
Gainesville     41  50  24  46 /  20   0   0   0
Macon           39  60  26  50 /  20  10   0   0
Rome            39  49  20  43 /  30   0   0   0
Peachtree City  40  54  21  46 /  40  10   0   0
Vidalia         41  62  30  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...RW