139
FXUS62 KFFC 301511
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1111 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025



...Morning Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1108 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

 - Tropical Storm Imelda will not have any significant impacts on
   north and central Georgia.

 - Isolated showers and storms today with dry conditions the rest
   of the week before rain chances slightly bump up this weekend.

 - High temps falling into the 70s and breezy winds each
   afternoon lead to fall-like conditions through late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

No significant updates to the forecast. Low ceilings remain in
line with expectations. Radar shows isolated and light showers in
north Georgia, likely not or just barely reaching the surface. No
appreciable rainfall is expected with most of this. Ceilings are
expected to climb, and eventually clear, through the next couple
of hours. More noticeable, yet still isolated, showers expected
to develop through the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

A rather gloomy looking morning ongoing across much of north and
central Georgia with widespread low cloud cover, patchy fog, and temps
in the mid to upper 60s. The combination of surface high pressure
over the Great Lakes and Tropical Storm Imelda off the coast of
Florida are creating a fetch of low-level E/NE flow across the
region, which has brought in a stable and humid airmass from the
Atlantic. The other notable synoptic feature is a closed mid-
level low over the Carolinas, which will have a few shortwaves
wrap around it and move over north and central Georgia later on
this afternoon and evening. By that time, much of the low cloud
cover will be scattering out, and we could see enough heating to
support isolated to scattered showers and storms, with the best
chances across north Georgia. High temps will climb into the upper
70s to low 80s.

Overnight into Wednesday morning, the overall synoptic setup in
the region will start to rapidly change. Imelda will quickly
move east out into the Atlantic, allowing a mid-level ridge over
the Midwest to push the now-weakening troughing over the area
southward. A much drier airmass will filter in behind this within
the low to mid-level NE flow. This will be most noticeable in
surface dewpoints, which will crash from the mid to upper 60s
tonight to the mid to upper 50s by Wednesday afternoon. Overall,
Wednesday looks like it will be a very pleasant day, with mostly
sunny skies, near zero rain chances, highs in the low to mid 80s,
and a light northeast breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 158 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

By Thursday when the longterm period starts, Imelda will be fully
into the Atlantic as the cut off low that has been weakly
spinning over the eastern CONUS pushes off into the Atlantic
behind Imelda and Humberto. In it`s place a dome of high pressure
looks to settle in across much of the southeast into Friday. This
high pressure will filter in cool and dry conditions across the
area with high temps into the mid 70s through Friday before
warming just slightly into the weekend with the potential return
of moisture late in the long term period. For Thursday the area
will be still wedged between the low pressure system pushing off
into the Atlantic with Imelda and the high pressure settling into
the area. As a result the pressure gradient that sets up will lead
to much of the area experiencing breezy conditions up to 25mph.
With Imelda pushing further east over the latest runs, model
guidance has backed off on higher wind gusts over the area so we
are not expecting winds to reach wind advisory criteria at this
time. Overall should see nice fall like conditions through at
least Friday!

Into the weekend is where the potential for rain comes back into
the forecast with PoPs topping out at 25-30% for now over central
Georgia. It`s a bit too far out to put specifics into it but a
decent portion (over half) of both the GEFS and EPS members are
indicating a swing of energy as a low pressure system pushes
across the gulf coast increasing moisture along our central
Georgia counties. May get some marginal relief for areas that
desperately need the rainfall!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Widespread MVFR to IFR CIGs across the area to start the period.
The lowest CIGs of 300 to 700 ft should generally remain over
eastern Georgia, but any of the TAF sites could briefly be
impacted by CIGs of 700 to 1000 ft over the next few hours.
Gradual improvement to VFR CIGs is expected for western GA
(including ATL) after 18Z. Isolated SHRA or TSRA this afternoon
and evening, with best chances across north GA. Winds remain out
of the NE at 6-10 kts with gusts to 20 kts during the day. VFR
conditions expected for most sites tonight and Wednesday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

High confidence in lower ceilings this morning, but moderate
confidence in timing of improvement.
Medium confidence on SHRA chances.
High on all other elements.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          77  62  81  58 /  20   0   0   0
Atlanta         80  65  83  61 /  20  10   0   0
Blairsville     75  57  79  55 /  40  20   0   0
Cartersville    82  62  85  60 /  20  20   0   0
Columbus        84  65  86  63 /  20   0   0   0
Gainesville     78  63  82  60 /  30  10   0   0
Macon           80  63  83  60 /  20   0   0   0
Rome            86  64  87  61 /  20  20   0   0
Peachtree City  80  62  83  59 /  20   0   0   0
Vidalia         82  64  85  61 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Culver