432
FNUS74 KEWX 061339
FWSEWX

Spot Forecast for Kerrville SAR...TDEM
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
839 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 CDT on July 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A mid-level disturbance remains over the Hill Country this
morning. This disturbance has been responsible for the heavy rains
over the region. We are expecting at least 1 more day of this
disturbance meandering around the region before it starts to
weaken and move out of the region Tuesday. For today, the threat
for scattered showers and storms increases late this morning and
through the afternoon hours. Locally heavy rainfall with pockets
of 2-4" plus with isolated higher amounts are possible. This is a
low confidence forecast on location and timing of showers and
storms, however, our confidence is precipitation rates is high
given the tropical moisture in place. A flood watch is in effect
through 7pm this evening but may need to be extended into Monday
if heavy precip trends are noted for tonight or Monday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms late
                    in the morning, then showers likely and chance
                    of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........74 percent.
Surface winds (mph).South winds around 5 mph shifting to the 6 to 8
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........87  89  86  81  86  74  77  77  82
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40  50  50  50  50  50  50  60  60
Temp............74  76  77  80  81  82  84  83  83
RH..............97  94  90  85  82  79  74  74  77
Surface wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Surface wnd spd.5   6   7   7   8   8   8   8   8
Surface wnd gst.10  12  13  14  14  15  15  15  15

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms early in the
                    evening, then slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 72.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Surface winds (mph).South winds 6 to 8 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........75  80  85  72  73  86  84  72  63  73  75  71
Weather cov.....LKY SCH SCH SCH             CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW              RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC SCH SCH SCH             SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).60  20  20  20  10  10  10  30  30  30  30  30
Temp............80  79  77  76  75  75  74  74  74  73  73  73
RH..............85  85  90  90  94  90  93  93  93  93  93  93
Surface wnd dir.SE  S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
Surface wnd spd.8   7   6   3   3   3   2   3   2   2   3   3
Surface wnd gst.14  14  12  10  10  9   9   10  9   9   10  10

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms early in the
                    morning, then slight chance of showers. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    south 6 to 9 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........66  67  65  60  55  49  42  36  39  41  44  40
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH                         SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).30  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............73  72  73  74  76  78  80  82  83  84  85  85
RH..............90  97  93  93  90  85  79  74  72  70  67  67
Surface wnd dir.S   S   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Surface wnd spd.3   3   5   6   6   7   8   9   9   9   9   9
Surface wnd gst.10  10  10  12  13  14  15  16  16  16  16  15

$$
Forecaster...34
Requested by...Jarod Cook
Type of request...SAR
.TAG 2517430.0/EWX
.DELDT 07/06/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jarod.cook@tdem.texas.gov