022
FXUS64 KEWX 081907
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
107 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 103 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

We`ve issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Hill Country and
Edwards Plateau for Thursday. Freezing rain Thursday will produce
icing up to a tenth of an inch on mainly elevated surfaces including
bridges and overpasses. Icing will begin around sunrise and continue
into the early afternoon. There may be a period of snow or rain/snow
mix Thursday evening as the system moves away.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 214 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

- Cold temperatures continue through the short term period with
  highs some 15 to 25 degrees below normal.

- There is a low chance for a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain,
  and snow over the Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country
  Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

An active stretch of weather is expected through the short term
period and extending into the beginning of the long term. The upper
level low we`ve been talking about for the better part of the past
week will finally bring widespread precipitation to South Central
Texas late this afternoon through the remainder of the short term
(Thursday). At the surface, a low will form along the lower Texas
coast and move north through the day Thursday. This will draw in
plenty of moisture with HREF ensembles indicating PWATS in the 1.4-
1.8 in range. That`s some good moisture to work with this early in
the year. The trend in both global guidance as well as high
resolution model guidance has been to slow the storm system down
enough to allow warmer temperatures ahead of it over our area. This
has helped to lower our concerns for wintry precipitation but it`s
not completely out of the equation yet. There is still a low chance
for a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow over the Southern
Edwards Plateau and Hill Country starting late tonight and continue
through Thursday morning before precipitation is expected to be all
liquid through the day Thursday. Outside of a few slick spots in the
areas mentioned above, it should just be a cold rain Thursday
afternoon with highs only in the mid to upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Key Messages:

- Low chance for a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow over
  the Hill Country Thursday night into early Friday morning.

- Temperatures are generally expected to remain at or below normal
  through the weekend into early next week.

Rain chances remain high across the region through Thursday night as
an upper level trough axis approaches from the west. The warm air
advection pattern in the lower levels will be on the decrease from
west to east and this should gradually allow for the precipitation
shield to migrate eastward. Some much needed rainfall is still in the
forecast with amounts ranging from near 1/2" along the Rio Grande,
1-2" from the Hill Country eastward into the I-35 corridor. Some
locally higher amounts of 2-3" are also possible farther east into
the Highway 77 corridor.

Some low rain chances will linger into Friday morning for areas
generally east of the I-35 corridor as a cold front moves through the
region. Any additional rainfall amounts with this activity should
remain light. Despite some lingering moisture and lift in the mid and
upper levels associated with an upper level trough axis, we will keep
the forecast dry for Friday afternoon given the dry air in the lower
levels. Forecast soundings do keep a layer of moisture around 900mb
and this will likely keep partly to mostly cloudy skies intact
through the daytime hours. The cloudiness and cold air advection will
keep highs down in the lower 40s to lower 50s for most of the region.
The upper level trough axis eventually moves through south central
Texas by Saturday afternoon and with dry air intact, expect sunny
skies along with highs trending upward into the lower 50s to lower
60s. A broad upper trough takes shape across the Rockies and plains
states Sunday into early next week. A cold front moves in from the
north Sunday afternoon/evening and may hamper the warming trend
across the Hill Country where lower to mid 50s are forecast.
Elsewhere, we should see highs in the lower to mid 60s. Behind the
front on Monday and Tuesday, surface high pressure remains intact
resulting in below normal high temperatures along with near normal
overnight lows. We do expect to see a return of widespread low clouds
beginning Monday evening as the low-level warm air advection just
above above the shallow cold air develops. Some light showers may
develop across portions of the coastal plains westward to the Rio
Grande south of Eagle Pass on Tuesday. Any precipitation amounts
appear low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

VFR overcast skies will continue through the afternoon and overnight
at all terminals. Winds from the north to northeast near 10 kts will
prevail into the evening. An area of low pressure near the coast will
bring rain to the region during the day Thursday. Precipitation
should be all rain, but there is a small chance of some freezing rain
or snow mixing in. Ceilings will drop to MVFR by late morning
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              34  40  34  44 /  20 100 100  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  34  41  34  44 /  20 100 100  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     35  42  35  47 /  20 100 100  10
Burnet Muni Airport            31  37  32  41 /  30 100 100   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           36  43  35  54 /  30  80  60   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        32  39  33  42 /  20 100 100   0
Hondo Muni Airport             34  42  34  48 /  20 100  90   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        34  41  33  46 /  20 100 100  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   35  43  34  45 /  10 100 100  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       36  41  35  47 /  20 100 100  10
Stinson Muni Airport           37  42  37  48 /  20 100 100  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday for
Bandera-Blanco-Burnet-Edwards-Gillespie-Kendall-Kerr-Llano-Real-Val
Verde.

&&

$$

Update...05
Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...05