724
FXUS64 KEWX 161742
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1242 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Low-level moisture has slowly returned overnight and that trend
continues through the remainder of the short term forecast period.
Mid-level ridging will move directly overhead today, resulting in a
strong cap, and no rain chances in the short term period.
Temperatures should remain relatively comfortable on Wednesday, with
a southeasterly breeze the primary reason it won`t feel all that
bad. Expect temperatures to return to the mid to upper 80s today,
with lower 90s expected along the Rio Grande. Low clouds and muggy
air return tonight into Thursday morning, followed by increasingly
warmer temperatures Thursday afternoon, with highs expected to top
out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Weak west-southwest flow aloft is
expected on Thursday, but with a rather strong cap in place, rain
chances remain very low for the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Key Messages:

- Low chances (20-50%) for isolated to widely scattered storms Friday
  night across the northern Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards
  Plateau, and northern Hill Country, and on Saturday across the Hill
  Country and I-35 corridor
- Showers and storm chances becoming likely (50-60%) Saturday night
  into early Easter Sunday across the Rio Grande Plains, southern
  Edwards Plateau, and I-35 corridor

An upper level trough is forecast to dig south into the Four Corners
into northwest Mexico Friday and Friday night, then move east into
the Plains and Texas Saturday and Saturday night, eventually dragging
a cold front through the area Easter morning. Ahead of the system,
warm conditions will continue Friday and Saturday, with breezy
southerly flow across the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and Hill
Country.

The dry line is forecast to become active late Friday afternoon and
evening to the northwest and across Mexico as a lead shortwave in
the southwest flow aloft ejects out. There is a 20-50% chance of
upstream convection making into portions of the northern Rio Grande,
southern Edwards Plateau, and northern Hill Country Friday night, and
into remainder of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor Saturday.
Coverage of showers and storms this far south during this time frame
is forecast to be isolated to widely scattered. We will watch for the
possibility of isolated strong to severe storms Friday night across
northern Val Verde and Edwards Counties.

The better chances for more organized convection looks to arrive
Saturday night into early Easter Sunday, as the main forcing ahead
of the upper level trough and cold front arrive. We are currently
forecasting a 50-60% chance of showers and storms during this time
across the Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau, and I-35
corridor, and these chances look to continue to trend up. Again, we
will have to watch for the potential for isolated to scattered strong
to severe storms Saturday night, this time across the Rio Grande
Plains, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country with damaging wind
gusts and hail the main threats. A weakening trend in the storms may
occur into Easter morning near the I-35 corridor and east into the
Coastal Plains, with the better forcing just northeast of the
region. Most global ensembles have the precipitation clearing east of
the I-35 corridor by the afternoon.

Precipitation amounts Friday night through Sunday look to average
1/10-1/2 of an inch along and south of the U.S. 90/I-10 corridor and
1/2" to 1 inch north, with isolated higher amounts. There are some
outliers, with a 10% chance of amounts exceeding 1 1/2 inches through
the northern Hill Country and into the northern I-35 corridor near
Austin.

Temperatures Easter Sunday trend back closer to seasonal averages
for this time of year, then warm Monday as a return flow develops.
The forecast for Tuesday is low confidence, with an active southern
jet stream potentially bringing another chance of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Ceilings are rapidly dissipating as we approach the new TAF period,
and we expect all terminals to be VFR by that time. This could be a
little optimistic, and it could take until 19Z. Winds will be gusty
from the south this afternoon. Low ceilings will develop overnight
eventually dropping to IFR in Austin and San Antonio. VFR should
return by around noon Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are possible
today, but with steady moisture return, minimum RH values should
remain in the 25-35% range, precluding the issuance of any fire
danger statements or RFW products. Gusty winds out of the southeast
will most certainly be the main factor in fire weather concerns for
Wednesday, sustained at 15-25 and gusting to 30+ mph from about mid-
morning through late evening Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  90  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  63  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     63  91  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            64  89  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  90  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             62  93  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        62  90  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   64  88  69  89 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           64  92  68  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...76
Aviation...05