809
FXUS64 KEWX 301118
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
618 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 117 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Nocturnal stratus has set up across the western half of the area and
there could be a low chance of a streamer shower in this region
around daybreak. Southeast winds are near 10-15 mph with
temperatures remaining in the lower 80s at the present hour. Should
see lows later this morning in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. The
main focus for today will be another hot day with highs later today
in the the upper 90s to near 103 degrees. Elevated dewpoints this
afternoon will allow for afternoon heat index values to max out near
108-112 degrees for areas mainly east of the I35 corridor and a Heat
Advisory remains in effect for these locations today. Deep moisture
could support a stray shower in the southern CWA today, and will
keep the 10-20 PoP going there.

Lows tonight will maybe be a degree or two cooler as sky conditions
try to stay on the partly cloudy side vs seeing an additional night
of cloudy conditions. Highs tomorrow will warm into the upper 90s to
near 102 degrees out west. Slightly lower dewpoints Monday afternoon
should lead to lower heat index values. There may be a need for
another Heat Advisory, but most of the counties in today`s advisory
will be borderline tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 117 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

At the start of the long term period, the Subtropical Ridge axis
will remain centered over the ArkLaTex. By Wednesday-Thursday, we
should start to see the Ridge axis slide a bit further east and
settling over the Southeastern CONUS. This should result in a bit of
a weakness in the upper level flow over South Central Texas and
could open the door for a weak frontal boundary to get far enough
south to bring some showers and storms to the Hill Country by the
end of next week.

Beyond that, our attention would turn to the tropics. Global
guidance, particularly 3 of the last 4 operational runs of the GFS
have Beryl moving into south Texas sometime late next weekend. For
now, we should take any of the guidance that far out with a grain of
salt, especially since a lot of uncertainties exist as to where
Beryl will end up once it moves west of the Lessar Antilles and
Windward Islands. As it stands, the weakness in the ridge to our
east and troughing to our north would act to pull any system
entering the Gulf of Mexico into Texas or Louisiana if those pattern
trends continue. We`ll keep monitoring it, but the main focus will
remain on the heat and humidity heading into the 4th of July holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

MVFR stratus is in place across most of the I35 sites this morning
and will continue to be in place through the mid-morning hours.
South/southeast winds will prevail through the period with speeds
mostly at or below 12 knots. Another round of MVFR will be possible
tonight, although coverage could be slightly less than today as some
slightly drier air moves into the region. Otherwise, no major impacts
are expected during this TAF cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              99  78 101  78 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  98  76 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     98  76 100  75 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            97  76  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          103  80 103  80 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        97  77 100  77 /   0  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             98  75  98  75 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   97  76  97  76 /  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       98  77 100  77 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           98  77 101  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-
Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...29