657
FXUS64 KEWX 071127 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
627 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Key Message:

- Hot and humid conditions today and Sunday could result in Heat
  Advisories for parts of South Central Texas.

Regional satellite imagery shows the center of a 594dm Subtropical
Ridge over south Texas. This ridge will build northward today
through Sunday, leading to hot and humid conditions across all of
South Central Texas. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s outside
of the Rio Grande Plains, and highs in the 100-108 range over the
Rio Grande Plains. Factoring in dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid
70s, it`ll feel like between 103-113 at times, particularly on
Sunday. Fortunately, we won`t have to wait long for relief, as rain
chances increase in the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Key messages:

- Heat Advisory possible for parts of the area Monday

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms Monday Through Friday

The Subtropical Ridge drifts to the southwest as the lower level
thermal ridge weakens slightly by Monday. While temperatures and
heat index values decrease slightly most areas, Heat Advisory level
heat index values remain closer to the Coastal Plains and across the
Winter Garden. Thus, a Heat Advisory is possible for those areas. An
outflow boundary from storms over northern Texas may move into the
Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and our Central Texas counties late
Sunday night into Monday. This could generate isolated showers and
thunderstorms there. This would also provide some extra "cooling"
Monday afternoon there.

Short-waves rotating around an upper level trough and surface
boundaries from convection interacting with a moist airmass maintain
chances for rounds of showers and thunderstorms Monday night through
Friday. The greatest chances are Tuesday night through Thursday as
the upper level trough moves over the southern Plains. Moderate
instability indicates a potential for a few strong to severe storms.
An unseasonably moist airmass with moisture pooling along the
boundaries and cells repeating over the same areas or moving slowly
also indicate a potential for heavy rains. With heavy rains and some
flooding of late, runoff should be more rapid making for an
increased flooding threat. The heaviest rains are expected Tuesday
night through Thursday. Expect POPs to be fine tuned as mesoscale
influences take hold. The increased clouds and periods of rain "cool"
off temperatures to near average with below average highs possible
mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Very few changes to the previous forecast. MVFR ceilings through 16Z
followed by VFR and breezy south to southeasterly sfc winds of 10-15
kts, gusting to 20-25 kts at times through the day today. MVFR will
return again tonight after 07Z at AUS, SAT, and SSF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  76 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     98  75  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  79 103  80 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  76  97  75 /   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             99  74 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  76  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       99  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport          100  77 101  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...04
Aviation...MMM