316
FXUS64 KEWX 181111
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
611 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Nearly seasonable August temperatures and heat indices

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return today and continue
  through next weekend with locally heavy rains and gusty winds
  possible

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

The Subtropical Ridge migrates west to the Four Corners region while
upper level troughing approaches the Texas coast. This allows
moisture to increase over our area. Heating and the seabreeze will
generate isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening over areas east of US 281. Little change in
temperatures and heat indices is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

The Ridge takes up residence over the Four Corners while troughing
persists near or off the Texas coast for the remainder of the week
through next weekend. Moisture levels around 150% of August averages
remain through next weekend. Heating, the seabreeze, the troughing,
surface boundaries (including a possible mid week cold front) will
generate rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With high PWs making
for efficient rainfall processes and a potential for slow moving or
training rain cells, locally heavy rains are possible. With multiple
days of rain, minor flooding could become a concern as soils become
saturated again. Gusty winds are possible due to moisture loading.
Little change in temperatures is expected Tuesday and Wednesday,
however with the increase in moisture and less mixing of dewpoints,
maximum heat indices will rise a little to briefly approach advisory
levels in the afternoon along and east of I-35. Daytime temperatures
drop to slightly below average for the remainder of the week through
next weekend due to clouds and rain allowing for a corresponding
lowering of maximum heat indices.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR conditions generally prevail through the TAF period. The
exception is patchy IFR to MVFR ceilings near and east of a SAT-
BZZ-GYB line ongoing early this morning, which should dissipate
around 14Z, as well as any reductions in afternoon and evening
convective activity. Convective allowing models are indicating
isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA activity 20Z-04Z near and east
of the I-35 corridor. A PROB30 TSRA group has been included at the
AUS/SAT TAFs around this time period. Some wind gusts in excess of
30KT are possible in and near TSRA activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             100  77  99  77 /  20  20  40  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100  77  99  76 /  20  20  40  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport    100  75  98  74 /  20  20  40  30
Burnet Muni Airport            97  75  97  74 /  20  20  40  20
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  79 102  78 /   0  10  20  20
Georgetown Muni Airport       100  77 100  76 /  20  10  40  20
Hondo Muni Airport            100  74 100  75 /   0  10  30  30
San Marcos Muni Airport       100  75  99  74 /  20  20  40  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   98  76  96  75 /  20  20  50  20
San Antonio Intl Airport      100  78  99  78 /  20  20  40  30
Stinson Muni Airport          101  77 100  78 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...04
Aviation...76