065
FXUS64 KEWX 181952
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
252 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

- There is a Level 1 of 5 risk for Severe Thunderstorms tonight over
the Southern Edwards Plateau.

- There is a Level 2 of 5 Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Saturday
generally along and west of the I-35 Corridor.

An upper-level trough continues to slide southward into the Four
Corners region this afternoon. The first of several shortwaves will
eject out over west Texas later this afternoon, potentially sending
the dryline eastward into the western part of our CWA. With a rather
stout cap in place, the threat for strong to severe storms remains
low. However, this may be a case of low POPs but high severe
potential given strong MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg, and 0-6km
bulk shear of 50-60 kts. If storms do form they could become severe
rather quickly. The SPC day 1 outlook includes a Marginal Risk (1 of
5) for a small sliver of the Southern Edwards Plateau. The severe
threat increases on Saturday as the upper level trough pivots
further east and another shortwave lifts from southwest to northeast
Saturday afternoon over west Texas. SPC currently has areas west of
I-35, over the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains
in a Slight risk (2 of 5) for severe storms. The biggest threat
appears to be either hail, due to extreme CAPE and steep mid-level
lapse rates, or wind due to strong winds aloft getting pulled down
to the surface in some of the stronger storms. The best timing for
strong to severe storms looks to be from late afternoon into the
overnight period. Saturday will start quite warm with lows from the
middle 60s to lower 70s. Cloudy skies and possible rain will keep
highs Saturday about five degrees cooler than Friday. A weak cold
front will bring some cooler air Sunday morning, and lows will be 5-
10 degrees cooler than Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

- A level 1 and 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms early Easter
  morning with large hail and damaging winds as the primary severe
  weather concerns.

- Rain chances continue for the middle portion of the upcoming week.

A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to be near the I-35
corridor around sunrise Easter Sunday. The latest guidance from the
SPC along with hi-res model guidance continues to show a risk for
severe storms across the Hill Country (Level 2 of 5) and I-35
corridor (Level 1 of 5) early Sunday. Large hail and damaging winds
are the main severe weather concerns. The latest round of model
guidance continues to show some consistency with the line of storms
expected to weaken while moving out of the Hill Country and into the
I-35 corridor Sunday morning. Most of the shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected to gradually move eastward into the coastal
plains region during the afternoon hours as drier air behind a cold
front moves in from the northwest. High temperatures will be a little
cooler on Sunday, with upper 70s in the Hill Country to the mid 80s
to near 90 along the Rio Grande.

The above mentioned frontal boundary may linger across the coastal
plains on Monday and we will keep a low chance for showers and storms
in the forecast across this region. The front quickly shifts
northward as a warm front Monday night leading to a quick return of
low-level moisture across all areas. The medium range models continue
to show a fairly strong shortwave trough embedded in the southwest
flow aloft moving into the region late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
This period will be favored for scattered shower and thunderstorm
development and with precipitable water values generally at or above
1.5" (above 90th percentile at DRT per SPC sounding climo) some areas
may receive some moderate to heavy rainfall. Another shortwave trough
moves in from the west on Thursday, leading to another chance for
scattered shower and thunderstorm development. As the pattern evolves
next week, we will refine and narrow the window for precipitation
chances. As mentioned above, late Tuesday into early Wednesday are
favored along with Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Ceilings have lifted at all terminals. Winds from the south to
southeast will be 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts this afternoon
and evening. Low ceilings will redevelop overnight in the Austin and
San Antonio areas. There will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms starting at DRT around 06z. Chances for convection
won`t make to San Antonio and Austin until Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  85  65  80 /  10  30  20  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  85  65  80 /  10  30  20  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  87  67  83 /  10  40  20  70
Burnet Muni Airport            68  82  62  80 /  30  50  60  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  90  64  88 /  60  20  80  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  85  62  79 /  20  30  30  70
Hondo Muni Airport             68  86  62  83 /  30  30  60  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  85  65  81 /  10  30  20  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  86  70  83 /   0  20  10  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       70  85  67  82 /  10  40  40  60
Stinson Muni Airport           70  87  68  82 /  10  30  30  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...05