869
FXUS64 KEWX 302334
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
634 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Showers continue across the CWA. They have made it farther north over
the eastern half of the area then we had previously anticipated. We
have updated the forecast to account for this. Activity has been
decreasing over the last hour or so and this trend should continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Regional radar imagery shows showers and isolated thunderstorms
increasing in coverage over south Texas. This are expected to work
their way into our region, particularly south and west of the I-10
Corridor, this afternoon and evening. With PWATs nearing 2" and
ample moisture through the column, the ingredients are in place for
locally heavy rain today. The remnants of Barry have moved inland
over Mexico and moisture has already started to work its way
northward into northern Mexico and south Texas early this afternoon.
Ridging is now situated to our east, and on the southern periphery
of this high, southeasterly flow in the mid and upper levels is
allowing the remnants of Barry to work into northern Mexico. Some
isolated thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon, but the
primary concern will be tropical-like downpours which could lead to
localized flooding. Afternoon highs should be a bit cooler due to
increased cloud cover, mostly in the lower to middle 90s. On
Tuesday, expect a similar pattern with tropical moisture working
through the western half of the region, particularly the Rio Grande
Plains and portions of the Edwards Plateau. Afternoon temperatures
will struggle to climb out of the 80s out west of I-10, but east of
there, particularly up towards Austin, temperatures should climb
into the mid to perhaps upper 90s today and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

By mid-week, southeasterly mid-level flow looks to continue on the
backside of the Subtropical Ridge to our east. This should aid in
continued shower and storm chances, but only about 20-30% and
primarily over the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains through
Friday. Beyond that, temperatures look to climb back into the mid to
upper 90s and even above the century mark this weekend as Subtropical
Ridging amplifies just in time for the Holiday. Be sure to take
frequent breaks if you plan on being outdoors as temperatures climb
and heat indices rise.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Still some showers around the terminals and this will continue for
another hour or two. At this point showers are not decreasing flying
conditions, but there are still gusty winds at AUS. The Austin and
San Antonio areas should stay VFR through the coming period. MVFR
ceilings will develop at DRT later this evening and last overnight.
There will be a chance for additional showers at DRT Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  97  76  98 /  20  10  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  96  75  96 /  20  10  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  93  73  94 /  30  10  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            72  94  73  94 /  20  20  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  90  72  91 /  50  40  50  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  96  74  96 /  20  10   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             71  88  72  89 /  60  30  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  95  74  95 /  30  10  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  95  74  96 /  20  10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  91  75  93 /  50  20  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           73  92  75  94 /  50  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Update...05
Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...05