795
FXUS64 KEWX 101127
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
627 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

An upper level ridge continues to dominate over Texas this morning.
At the surface, high pressure is keeping skies mostly clear and
temperatures are around five degrees cooler than 24 hours ago.
During this period the upper ridge and surface high will remain
dominant over Texas. High temperatures will continue to be above
normal and may approach records especially today. Lows will be near
normal.

The unseasonably warm temperatures and dry air will lead to very low
humidity each of the next couple of afternoons. This will be
especially true over the southern Edwards Plateau this afternoon.
Luckily, winds will be generally 10 mph or less. Slightly higher
dewpoints and lower temperatures will keep humidity a bit higher
Friday. There may still be elevated fire weather conditions with the
fuel dryness we`ve been seeing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Upper level ridging centered just west of the area Saturday will
build east over the area Sunday then flatten slightly on Monday.
This will lead to continued dry conditions Saturday through Monday
with continued anomalously warm afternoons for October.

Global models have trended farther east with an upper level trough
that is forecast to develop southward out of the Great Lakes and into
the eastern CONUS Tuesday and Wednesday. This has led to lower
confidence on this forecast package with respect to whether or not an
associated cold front will back door into our region Tuesday and how
much "cooler" air arrives if the front does make it. For now we have
stuck close to the NBM on temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

High pressure will continue to give us favorable flying conditions
through the coming TAF period. All terminals will have VFR conditions
with mostly clear skies and light winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Daily Record High Temperatures (Year of Record):

                     Oct 10
Austin Bergstrom:   97 (2019)
Austin Camp Mabry:  99 (2019)
San Antonio: (1962) 98 (1894)
Del Rio:            102 (2020)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  63  95  65 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  60  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     98  63  96  63 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            94  63  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  67  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  61  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             96  63  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  61  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  59  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       96  66  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           97  65  95  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...76
Aviation...05