970
FXUS64 KEWX 222024
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
224 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 207 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Key Messages:

- Hard freezes continue tonight and Thursday night

- Continued cold mornings but slow warmup in progress

Tonight expect cloudy to partly cloudy conditions with another hard
freeze likely as temperatures drop down into the upper 20s. Add in a
light wind and windchill values once again are quite cold though
they look to stay JUST above our Cold Weather Advisory Criteria.
Should these northerly winds come in stronger overnight we may have
to issue another Cold Weather Advisory especially for the Hill
Country. Tomorrow we look to warm up slightly more then we managed
to today with highs generally in the low to mid 50s. Another cool
night is on tap for the area with a Hard freeze expected as temps
tumble into the upper low to mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 207 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Key Messages:

- Warming up this weekend with more seasonable temperatures in the
  50s/60s.

- Several rain chances return with a more active pattern returning
  Sunday through the middle of next week.

A surface high will slide east on Friday afternoon, allowing surface
flow to turn back out of the southwest and become quite breezy,
resulting in some elevated fire weather conditions, particularly
over the Rio Grande Plains and Southern Edwards Plateau where RH
values dip into the 20-25% percent range and winds increase to 10-15
mph. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side, in the 50s, but
warmer temperatures are on the way this weekend as southerly flow
increases and moisture return commences.

Our best shot at rain in the 7 day period arrives Sunday with a
frontal boundary pushing south into the region and moist
southeasterly surface flow ahead of the boundary resulting in good
isentropic upglide to produce showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
in the afternoon. At this time, it looks like primarily a I-35
Corridor and Coastal Plains event with more than likely less than a
half inch of QPF. All precip should be in liquid form.

A brief break commences on Monday before a cutoff low develops over
the southwestern CONUS and takes its sweet time ejecting out over the
southern plains states this week. That will result in continued
southwest flow aloft and a bit of a messy pattern with rain chances
increasing Tuesday and Wednesday. For now, we will keep PoPs capped
at 50% for Sunday and at 40% for Tuesday and Wednesday as confidence
isn`t particularly high in the long wave pattern in the medium to
long range. No sign of additional arctic air in the long term
forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for all TAF sites throughout the
forecast period. Southwest to south winds continue to be gusty this
afternoon, up to 25 knots near KAUS. Winds turn to the west and
eventually then shift to the Northwest and finally from the north
after midnight. Winds start to increase and become gusty once again
starting around 15Z Thursday for KSAT and KSSF sites and 16Z at KAUS.
Gusty winds calm down late friday afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              30  54  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  25  53  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     27  55  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            27  51  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           30  57  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        26  52  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             26  55  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        26  53  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   26  52  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       29  53  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           29  55  29  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...CJM
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...CJM