738
FXUS64 KEWX 091922
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
222 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Key Messages:

- Cooler Monday and Tuesday mornings

Northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 29 mph are
dominating the local area as of 2 PM CDT. There are some low clouds
over the Hill Country and areas along and east of Highway 77 where
temperatures are in the mid to upper 50s while areas under sunny
skies are coming in at lower 60s. Clouds are expected to dissipate by
or shortly after sunset. Wind speeds are going to decrease to 10
knots or less tonight and even becoming light and calm overnight.
With light winds and clear skies expect temperatures to go down to
the mid 30s across parts of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country with the rest of the local area reaching the upper 30s to mid
40s.

A nice warmup is in store on Monday for South Central Texas with
highs in the lower 80s across most areas and mid 80s along the Rio
Grande. Elevated fire weather conditions continue across most of the
local area due to minimum relative humidity values in the upper teens
to lower 20s range. Winds are forecasted to stay light to about 10
mph or less.

For the Tuesday night time-frame, clear skies are expected for most
areas through the forecast period. Overnight lows are between the
lower to mid 40s across the eastern two-thirds of the local area with
mid 40s along the Rio Grande. These lows in the 30s and 40s on Monday
and Tuesday mornings could mark the end of the cool season for us in
South Central Texas as temperatures start to change to a spring
season.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Key Messages:

- Well-above normal temperatures expected for the middle to end of
  the week.

- Several days of near-critical to Critical fire weather expected.

A significant warmup begins Tuesday with temperatures climbing into
the upper 70s to middle 80s. Low level flow will turn out of the
south to southwest once again by Tuesday afternoon, aiding in the
rapid warmup. Wednesday will see our first boundary in the form of a
dryline move into western zones in the afternoon. Elevated to
perhaps Critical fire weather conditions will develop along the Rio
Grande Plains and in the southern Edwards Plateau as surface winds
turn westerly behind this boundary. RH values between 5-15% will be
common, and in combination with westerly winds of 15-25 mph, will
result in the aforementioned fire concerns. Thursday and Friday will
easily be the warmest days of the early Spring season so far, with
temperatures soaring into the 90s for all but locations in the Hill
Country and Edwards Plateau regions. Thursday and particularly
Friday appear to be Critical fire weather days as well, with RH
values tanking to between 5-15% for all but the Coastal Plains.
Westerly and northwesterly winds arrive Friday afternoon with a
Pacific frontal passage, and Red Flag Warnings look like a good bet.
Rain chances remain low to virtually non-existent in the long term,
so our fire weather concerns aren`t going away until we can see at
least some sort of spring greenup.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected for all of the local area terminals
through the forecast period. Northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots with
gusts of to 24 knots are forecasted through late this afternoon/early
evening. Wind speeds decreasing to 5 to 10 knots this evening and
dropping down to 5 knots or less and even going calm overnight.
Winds are expected to shift to the west and southwest on Monday with
averaging speeds 5 to 8 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 AM CST Sun Mar 9 2025

North-northwesterly winds in the 15 to 25 mph range with higher
gusts are expected from this morning into the afternoon. However,
cooler temperatures across the region should keep the minimum
humidities above 25 percent for the vast majority. The primary
exception occurs along the Rio Grande where elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions develop as the minimum humidity
levels lower into the 15 to 25 percent range. A rangeland fire
danger statement will be issued across these areas. A larger
footprint of minimum humidity levels at or below 20 percent is
forecast Monday afternoon across the region, however, winds are
expected to remain less than 10 mph for locally elevated fire
weather.

The long term will have two periods of fire weather concerns. The
first will be Wednesday when a dryline will move through the western
half of the CWA. Humidity will drop below 20%, but winds should
remain below critical levels. The result will be elevated conditions
for the western half of the area. Friday and Friday night another
dryline will be accompanied by a cold front and spread dry air across
the entire area. RH will drop below 20% over all of South-Central
Texas. In addition winds will become westerly and increase to 15-20
mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Critical fire weather conditions will be
likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              41  77  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  39  76  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     41  78  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            37  76  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           44  80  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        39  76  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             39  76  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        39  76  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   39  74  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       42  77  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           43  77  45  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...17