365
FXUS64 KEWX 070903
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
303 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 132 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Much warmer early this morning than last night with lows in the 60s
and 70s. The nighttime microphysics satellite product is showing
clouds spreading across south central Texas while the EWX Doppler
radar picks up little returns across the coastal Plains. This trend
is forecast to continue through the morning period as a warm front
across the coastal Plains slowly pushes to the northwest and closer
to the I-35 corridor. Scattered shower activity is forecast mid to
late morning and picks up in the afternoon with isolated
thunderstorms possible mainly across the Hill Country and southern
Edwards Plateau. Instability increases mid to late afternoon with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s range, some clearing taking
place, pwats ranging from 1.6 to 1.7 inches based on GFS solution
and the warm front above mentioned pushing northward into the
southern Edwards Plateau and the Hill Country. What about today`s
highs? With the Hill Country staying under mostly cloudy to cloudy
skies throughout the day, highs are forecast to reach the mid 70s
while other areas across south central Texas reach the lower to
upper 80s and even lower 90s across the southwest portion of the
Rio Grande.

A cold front over west Texas is forecast to slowly push to the east-
southeast late this afternoon and evening making its present across
the Val Verde County area this evening. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are forecast ahead and along the cold
front while an upper level low pressure system moves across the four
corners region. A southwest wind aloft helps the updraft of these
storms as they become strong to severe. Main weather hazards with
these storms are expected to be large hail and damaging winds.
Pockets of one inch rainfall can`t be ruled out. The time frame for
the severe thunderstorm threat is from 6 PM this evening and around
2 AM Friday.

The upper level low above mentioned moves to the southern Plains
overnight and during the day on Friday and pushes the cold front
across the rest of south central Texas. Therefore, the threat for
strong to marginally severe storms continues across the local area
mainly mid to late Friday morning into the afternoon period. Main
weather hazards are large hail and damaging wind gusts. Pockets of
half to one inch of rainfall could be possible. Friday`s high
temperatures will be cooler in the wake of the cold front ranging
from the upper 60s across the Hill Country to mid 80s across the
coastal Plains. Showers and storms come to an end along the Rio
Grande on Friday afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 132 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

A surface low will continue to lift into the Central Plains Friday
night with the associated cold front sweeping across South Central
Texas. Ahead of this feature, an unstable and moist airmass will
remain, although there is some uncertainty on the exact timing of
the frontal passage. The potential for any strong to severe storms
should wane after sunset with the focus shifting on low end heavy
rain potential during the evening and overnight hours. High PWATS
from 1.5-2 inches ahead of the cold front could bring areas of heavy
rain to the mainly the eastern half of the region Friday night into
early Saturday morning. Right now, global models are still very tame
on rain amounts but some short term guidance depicts the potential
for pockets up to around 3-4 inches, possibly higher. Right now this
remains a low confidence scenario so will continue with WPC guidance
which depicts lower rain totals but message the potential for locally
higher amounts which could lead to isolated flash flooding.

Drier and slightly cooler conditions will be seen Saturday afternoon
in the wake of this activity, although low precipitation chances
remain in the far eastern portion of the CWA. Fair weather is
forecast much of the weekend into next week with a warming trend in
to early next week. Another front is forecast to move across the
area around mid-week. While there does not look to be much in the
way of precipitation with this feature, cooler and drier air is
forecast behind it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

Light NE winds occurring at the surface is being overrun by a Gulf
moisture transporting SE flow in the boundary layer this evening. The
mostly VFR cigs over I-35 will quickly fill in as MVFR in the next
couple hours and likely down to at least IFR by or after 09Z. Out
west, DRT will get in on the low clouds as well but an hour or two
later. Low cigs and some overrunning late morning showers are
expected through midday to help hold the ceilings down. In the
afternoon winds are expected to turn more SE at the surface and this
mixing could lead to some breaks in the clouds and maybe some
isolated deeper convection. The evening should be mostly VFR, but IFR
or lower cigs could return to I-35 again in the early morning Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              79  68  80  60 /  50  40  80  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  81  68  81  60 /  50  40  80  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     84  69  84  62 /  50  30  60  60
Burnet Muni Airport            75  68  76  56 /  60  40  90  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           84  65  76  57 /  20  60  80  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  68  78  57 /  60  50  80  70
Hondo Muni Airport             83  68  81  59 /  50  40  70  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        81  68  82  59 /  50  30  60  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   82  69  82  63 /  50  20  70  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       83  70  82  62 /  50  30  70  60
Stinson Muni Airport           84  71  84  63 /  50  30  60  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...27
Aviation...18