548
FXUS64 KEWX 150850
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
250 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Chilly temperatures this morning makes November feeling more like
well, November. A weaker onshore wind hangs around east counties
today with a few hours of ENE winds after sunrise. The western
counties are already seeing a tightening of the pressure gradient
and some gusts to 25 mph are possible around DRT. The onshore winds
in the boundary layer begins to become more uniform across the area
late today, and a rapid surge in 925 mb dew points are noted to
occur into the I-35 corridor between 03Z and 06Z. Thus low clouds
are expected roll in overnight and remain solid over the area for
much of the day Saturday. Tonight`s minimum temperatures are
expected to be considerably warmer that those of this morning, but
the high temperatures for Saturday will not achieve much more than
those of today due to the mostly cloudy skies. No precipitation is
suggested with this moisture influx, but models do show a few
streamer showers approaching the upper TX coast by the end of the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

A southerly lower level jet continues the warming and moistening
trend into Sunday. This leads to streamer showers across the eastern
Hill Country to along and east of the I-35 corridor with the highest
POPs along the US 77 corridor where the deeper moisture is expected.
Cannot rule out isolated thunderstorms due to modest CAPE and mid
level lapse rates.

An upper level trough lifts to the northeast across Plains states by
Monday. This drags a Pacific front across our area late Sunday night
to around midday Monday. Forcing by the front will generate a line
of showers and thunderstorms. Although modest MLCAPE (500-1,000
J/kg) and mid level lapse rates (6-7.5 C/km) remain, low level (SFC-
6 km) shear increases significantly to 50-60 KTs leading to a
possibility of strong to severe storms with strong wind gusts the
main threat. The greatest threat will be across the Edwards Plateau,
Hill Country, and Central Texas.

In wake of the frontal passage, a cooler and drier airmass surges
into our area. A combination of low humidities and breezy/gusty
winds may bring elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
Monday afternoon. Then, a surge of even colder air with below
average temperatures moves into our area during the middle of next
week as another upper level trough passes by to our north. Cannot
rule out a few low lying spots in the Hill Country and along the
Escarpment briefly reaching freezing around sunrise late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Little changes have been made to the latest aviation forecasts, with
VFR conditions through the current forecast period. Light and
variable winds along I-35 become southeasterly between 17-18Z. For
DRT, easterly winds continue overnight, with gusty southeast winds
beginning around 16Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Average first freeze dates

ATT 11/29
SAT 11/30
DRT 12/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  53  81  64 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  51  81  63 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     80  53  84  64 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            75  51  77  62 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           81  59  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  49  78  62 /   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             78  53  80  62 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        77  51  81  62 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  51  80  65 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  56  81  65 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           80  56  83  65 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...04
Aviation...18