Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
977 FXUS64 KEWX 131035 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 535 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler mornings and warm afternoons through the week. - Chances for rain (15%-30%) continue to increase next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Upper level high pressure that was centered over west TX has now moved south into northern Mexico while the surface high remains located along the Texas/Louisiana border. Southeasterly flow should continue resulting in an advection of slightly more moisture for our area. Though moisture increases we should still see another cool morning for Monday. However, lows should be a touch warmer than yesterday morning with mainly lower 60s expected. Highs are expected to be similar to Sundays with many areas reaching the lower 90s. Expect a near repeat for Tuesday`s forecast as high pressure slowly pushes off to the east allowing for continued southeasterly flow that eventually becomes predominantly out of the east once the surface high moves away from our area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 The upper level ridge continues to remain nearby through the week centering over or just east of our area. Global models continue to remain in great agreement indicating this high shunting all disturbances to our north and west keeping us dry for the week. Well above normal high temperatures should continue into this week with highs expected to approach and/or exceed 90 degrees. Confidence is increasing that we could be in for a pattern change for this coming weekend with even a decent shot of rain as the GFS and Euro seem to indicate as a cold front makes its way into our region from the north. This is still quite a few days out so things can and likely will change. However, for now our pattern of warmer afternoon highs and cooler mornings looks to continue through the work week with our next shot of rain possibly coming next weekend. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Lower level profiles show increased moisture. HREF probabilities of MVFR CIGs of 30-70% favor much of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau with less than 30% at the TAF sites this morning and again tonight into early Tuesday morning. Ongoing satellite imagery is verifying these probabilities. Have maintained TEMPOs MVFR CIGS at KSAT/KSSF/KDRT and removed them at KAUS where probabilities are less than 10%. Otherwise, VFR flying through this forecast. S to SE winds 7-14 KTs with a few gusts to 25 KTs midday through evening, then light and VRBL overnight into early morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 91 64 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 91 62 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 90 62 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 87 62 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 91 70 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 90 61 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 90 64 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 91 61 92 59 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 90 61 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 90 66 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 91 66 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...04