569
FXUS64 KEWX 281745
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1145 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 140 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

After a cooler start to Friday with temperatures in the 40s and
lower 50s, expect a quick warmup as clouds clear and give way to
abundant sunshine to end the work week. Expect high pressure to
slide east during the day, allowing surface flow to resume out of
the south by the afternoon hours. This will facilitate warmer
temperatures than we saw Thursday, with most locations in 70s. A few
spots along the Rio Grande may touch the 80 degree mark briefly late
this afternoon. We should have ideal viewing conditions for the
planet alignment Friday evening, with clear skies and light winds,
particularly before midnight. Don`t miss this rare event. High
clouds will start to move back in early Saturday morning, but
temperatures will be even warmer with high temperatures in the lower
to middle 80s Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 140 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Key Messages:

- Low Chance (20-30%) of storms Monday night across the southern
  Edwards Plateau and Hill Country and Tuesday across the northern
  I-35 corridor
- Critical Fire Weather conditions Tuesday afternoon across the Rio
  Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country

Southeasterly low level flow will increase Sunday in response to
cyclogenesis taking place in southeast Colorado. This will usher in
increasing low level moisture, with dew points into the 50s Sunday
and 60s Sunday night and Monday. Expect an increase in nocturnal and
morning stratus Sunday night and Monday, with a low chance (10-20%)
of a few showers beneath the cap. In addition, humid conditions are
forecast Sunday night through Monday night, with low temperatures
also modifying into the mid 60s for many locations.

Attention then turns to a potent closed low pulling out of the
Rockies Monday night and through the southern Plains Tuesday. While
the bulk of the forcing will remain just to the north and northeast
of the area, about 20-30% of the global ensemble members are
generating convection down into the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country Monday night, northern Hill Country Tuesday morning, and
then east into the U.S. 77 corridor Tuesday early afternoon. There
may be a very brief window for a strong to severe storm or two across
far east/northeast areas, closer to the U.S. 77 corridor, early
afternoon before convection exits east.

Attention then shifts to fire weather concerns behind as Pacific
cold front by Tuesday afternoon across the Rio Grande, southern
Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country. See Fire Weather discussion.

A weak polar front is then forecast to move through the region
Tuesday night, with cooler conditions slightly cooler conditions
Tuesday night through Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Good flying conditions with mostly clear skies and light winds
through the period. Some extra TAF periods added to try to catch
some of the shifty winds if they get above 6 knots. A weak bubble of
surface ridging will arrive during the day Saturday to reinforce the
ridge already over the area and keep the low level winds light and
shifty. The beginnings of a sustained return flow pattern will not
begin until the end of the 30 hour TAF periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Key Messages:

- Critical Fire Weather conditions Tuesday afternoon across the Rio
Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country

Strong northwest winds are forecast to develop through the Rio
Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country Tuesday afternoon
behind a Pacific cold front. That front will also bring much drier
air to this region. There is currently a 50-80% chance of this region
seeing sustained winds of 20 mph coinciding with RH values of less
than 20% Tuesday afternoon. There is a 20-40% chance of seeing wind
gusts greater than 35 mph and RH values less than 10% across the Rio
Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and western Hill Country. Fuels
remain cured and according to the Texas A&M Forest Service dormant
fire season herbaceous fuel loading is above normal through much of
the Hill Country. Red Flag conditions appear likely Tuesday afternoon
across the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country.
The dry conditions continue into Wednesday, although wind speeds
won`t be as strong.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  52  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  50  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  52  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            74  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  54  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  50  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             76  50  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  50  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  53  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           78  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...76
Aviation...18