139
FXUS64 KEWX 061114 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
614 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Tropical Storm Milton has developed over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. While we would hope for some moisture in the region, a
tropical system like this would pose a bigger threat than just
rainfall. Milton is expected to become a hurricane and then threaten
Florida by midweek. Meanwhile, here at home, things are looking dry
once again Sunday through Monday. Above normal temperatures will be
the story, but record-breaking heat is not expected at this time.
Highs will climb into lower and middle 90s both Sunday and Monday.
Weak northerly flow in the mid-levels is expected until Milton moves
into the eastern Gulf. Mornings will remain relatively comfortable,
but don`t expect much relief in the way of rain or cold fronts any
time soon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Overall, no significant changes are expected during the long-term
portion of the forecast. A dry airmass is expected to continue and
no rain is expected for the long-term period which continues to not
be good news for South-Central Texas. The afternoon periods will
continue to see upper 80s to middle 90s across the area. This will
be several degrees above normal for this time of the year. The one
bright side is dewpoints will continue to be on the lower side which
will lead to comfortable evening and overnight periods. Lows will
mainly be in the upper 50s to middle 60s which should be somewhat
close to climatological normals for the time of the year. Ensemble
temperature spreads do increase in about 10 days which signals some
members bring a cold front, but this is still pretty far out and no
significant agreement between the ensemble members.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

The only change from the previous forecast was to introduce MVFR
ceilings at SAT through 15Z. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains
on track.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  69  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  94  68  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  69  97  65 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            93  66  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  73  95  69 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  66  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             95  68  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  66  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  66  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  71  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  71  96  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...29
Aviation...MMM