242
FXUS64 KEWX 041055
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
555 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today Hill Country to
  Coastal Plains.

- Seasonally hot and mainly dry weather for the remainder of the
  week into next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

An MCS is surging to the south over North Central Texas this morning.
It should move into our Central Texas counties after sunrise, then
leave a surface boundary for storms to fire on later this morning
through the afternoon, that will then move to the southwest on the
flow aloft. Have raised POPs a little for most areas. However, best
chances remain over the Hill Country to across the I-35 corridor to
the Coastal Plains. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are the main
threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

The subtropical ridge is centered to our west this morning
resulting in northwesterly to northerly flow aloft over TX.
Today a shortwave trough in the northwest flow regime will move
across the region. This will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms today and this evening. Convection is possible
from the Hill Country to the Coastal Plains. Rain chances will
be highest during the afternoon with the heating of the day and
over the eastern counties where the best combination of lift and
deep layer moisture will be. The shortwave will move away from
the region tonight and the ridge will build toward the east.
This will make the overnight and Tuesday morning period dry.
Tuesday afternoon there may be enough heating over the eastern
part of the CWA to generate isolated showers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures through the period will be within a couple of
degrees or normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

The upper ridge will build farther east and bring an end to
convection for most of the CWA for most of the rest of the week.
There will be some low chances for showers and thunderstorms
over the Coastal Plains Wednesday and Thursday afternoons along
the seabreeze. Low level flow will be from the south to
southeast through the week. Temperatures will be fairly steady.
Highs should be within a couple of degrees of normal during this
hottest part of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

The above mentioned MCS and surface boundary remain on track to
generate impacts for the I-35 sites. Have introduced SHRA/TSRA
mention for mid to late morning at KAUS while maintaining PROBs for
all I-35 sites for this afternoon into evening. VFR flying conditions
prevail today through Tuesday morning. However, brief reductions of
CIGs/VSBYs are possible in SHRA/TSRA. Some MVFR level clouds are also
possible this morning and late tonight into Tuesday morning. S to SE
winds prevail, however erratic wind directions and wind gusts to 35
KTs or so are possible near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  76  96  75 /  30  20  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  75  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  73  96  73 /  30  20  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            92  73  93  73 /  40  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          104  78 101  78 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  73  94  74 /  40  20  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport            101  74  98  73 /  20  20  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  73  96  73 /  30  20  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  75  94  74 /  40  20  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       99  77  97  76 /  30  20  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport          101  77  99  76 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...05
Aviation...04