289
FXUS64 KEWX 200621
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
121 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms with strong gusty winds along with
  locally heavy rainfall possible today

- Potential for isolated flash flooding from slow moving storms
  continues through at least Friday

- Active storm track with multiple chances for showers/storms
  through early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH THURSDAY)...

The upper-level ridge remains entrenched over the four corners
region of the U.S for today allowing our area to continue to be
affected by disturbances daily as we are located just on the
eastern periphery. For today expect a similar set up with a
weak surface trough approaching our area from northern TX. This
trough is progged to make its way southward through the day
reaching our area by the afternoon. We expect showers and storms
to erupt off this boundary and continue slowly advancing
southward through the evening hours. Main concerns like we saw
Tuesday is strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall with
PWATs still around 1.5-2 inches this remains possible. WPC has
maintained keeping us in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall Today for all but our southern Rio Grande
Plains counties. Right now 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts with
isolated 3 inches is certainly possible over this area as any of
these storms that do form are likely to be very slow moving and
efficient rainfall producers. Most of the activity should
diminish after sunset however a few of the HiRes models keep
convection ongoing well into the overnight hours while others
have convection diminishing fairly quickly.

For Thursday PWATs look to rise even further approaching 2-2.5
inch territory which would be quite anomalous for this time of
year. What this means is the likelihood of heavy rainfall is
certainly possible with intense rainfall rates due to the slow
motion of repeated rounds of storms over the area during the
afternoon and evening. The surface boundary looks to remain over
our area for most of the day Thursday. That said, WPC has our
entire area once again in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall Thursday. High temperatures today look to be
similar to Tuesday with upper 90s and low 100s likely. Thursday
looks to be slightly cooler due to more cloud cover and higher
rain chances with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Overnight lows
remain in the 70s


&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

The long term period starts off with the surface boundary still
over our area early Thursday evening with most shower and storm
activity decreasing after sunset before hopefully pushing off
to the southeast across the Coastal Plains by Friday. Depending
on how far south this surface trough makes it, we could see more
showers and storms fire up again Friday afternoon mainly over
the Coastal Plains and into the I-35 corridor with activity once
again waning after sunset.

Looking ahead, we remain entrenched in a very active weather
pattern with upper-level ridging over the four corners region
to our west and upper-level troughing to our east. This results
in the continued chances for disturbance and surface boundaries
to make there way down into our area where we are situated in
the weakness in between both areas. Daily rounds of showers and
storms are possible during the afternoon and early evening
hours throughout the long term. Highs during this period look to
remain seasonable with mid to upper 90s expected and overnight
lows remaining in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

VFR conditions generally prevail through the TAF period with the
exception of any reductions in afternoon and evening convective
activity. Convective allowing models are indicating isolated to
widely scattered SHRA/TSRA activity in the afternoon and early
evening, gradually ending after sunset Wednesday. A PROB30 TSRA
group has been included at TAF sites to account for this potential.
Some wind gusts in excess of 30KT are possible in and near TSRA
activity. Otherwise, scattered cirrus moving through the area
tonight with scattered cumulus field developing in the
afternoon.&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  97  76  96 /  40  60  40  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  97  75  95 /  40  60  40  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  97  73  96 /  30  70  40  40
Burnet Muni Airport            74  94  73  93 /  40  60  30  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           78  99  76  98 /  30  50  30  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  97  74  95 /  40  60  30  30
Hondo Muni Airport             75  97  73  95 /  30  70  40  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  97  73  97 /  30  70  40  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  95  74  93 /  30  70  40  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  97  76  95 /  30  70  40  40
Stinson Muni Airport           78  99  76  97 /  30  70  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...CJM
Long-Term...CJM
Aviation...76