561
FXUS64 KEWX 072336
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
536 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 222 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Key Messages:

- Patchy dense fog Saturday and Sunday morning

- Unseasonably warm, near record to record high temperatures Saturday

Dew points this morning across our area were few degrees higher than
yesterday, resulting in slightly more widespread and persistent
morning and early afternoon cloud cover. While this has slightly
delayed warming and should keep temperatures below daily records
today, daytime highs will still rise into the 80s regionwide with
clouds currently clearing, reaching the 90s in Dimmit County. Daily
record highs for today and tomorrow are provided in the Climate
section below for reference.

There won`t be any changes to the broader weather pattern in the
short-term, so Saturday will play out very similarly. Dew points
remain elevated, so overnight lows will once again be mild in the
low- to mid-60s. Low stratus and patchy to areas of fog should
redevelop overnight and spread across the region from the southeast,
with higher probabilities for dense fog over the southern Edwards
Plateau and Rio Grande Plains.

Dew points Saturday will be a few degrees lower than today, so
expect morning clouds to break a little faster Saturday outside of
some residual cumulus persisting over the Balcones Escarpment. This
will set up more substantial warming to near- or record-breaking
highs in the upper-80s to low-90s for most of our area. Saturday
night, a shallow cold front will approach our region from the north,
though the gentle slope of the front and stable air aloft will
likely preclude any rainfall ahead of the front. The front should
reach the Burnet, Williamson, and Llano counties by sunrise Sunday.
These locations may be able to dip into the 50s, but conditions
elsewhere Saturday night will once again be damp and mild with lows
in the 60s, patchy fog, and low clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Key Messages:

- Cold front to bring colder temperatures across the Hill Country and
  Austin metro area on Sunday, still unseasonably warm Sunday south
  of the front along the Rio Grande and Coastal Plains
- Rain chances return late Monday night through Wednesday
- High uncertainty in temperature forecast Monday through Wednesday

We are now into the hi-resolution model range for Sunday, which
typically handle the southward extent of shallow cold fronts better
than the global models. With that said, the HREF members have the
front at least into the far northern CWA pre-dawn Sunday, with the
3KM NAM and 18Z HRRR to the I-10 corridor by noon. This creates a
tricky temperature forecast, with a very large high temperature
spread across the CWA, as well as a bust potential. We have trended
the forecast for Sunday significantly colder across the Hill Country
and into the Austin metro area, where confidence is a higher that
the front will be through this region in the morning. There is still
room to go lower across these northern areas, with high temperatures
potentially only in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Across the southwest
CWA, along the Rio Grande and across the Winter Garden region south
of the cold front, high temperatures in the 80s are forecast

The position of the shallow cold front gets even trickier on Monday
across southern areas, and then Tuesday as a disturbance aloft
approaches the area. Low chances (20%) for light rain and isolated
showers are forecast Monday near and just north of the front. Better
chances for showers (30-50%) and isolated thunderstorms are forecast
late Monday night through Tuesday with the aforementioned disturbance.

The upper level pattern becomes more amplified for the latter half of
the week, allowing for a slightly stronger cold front to push through
the area. There is low confidence on when this front moves through
the area, ranging anywhere from Tuesday night to Wednesday night.
This makes the Wednesday temperature and PoP forecast low
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Persistence type weather continues with hot afternoons setting up for
another VFR evening, at least early on. Cigs tonight are forecast to
arrive slightly earlier to pick up on the hint that the stratus clouds
were slower to erode today. The continued warming trend is helping
with keeping fog to a minimum, so will keep the VSBY up tonight to
reflect a continuation of last night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 222 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY

          02/07    02/08

AUS  88/2017  86/2017
ATT  86/2017  87/2017
SAT  86/2017  88/2017
DRT  93/1937  90/2017

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              67  86  62  64 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  65  87  63  67 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     65  87  65  73 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            64  85  55  59 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           64  89  63  81 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        66  86  55  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             62  87  62  76 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        64  87  64  72 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  86  66  74 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       65  87  65  75 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           65  88  65  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...76
Aviation...Tran