763
FXUS64 KEWX 042336 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
536 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 210 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Today has been a rather cool, gloomy, and soggy early December Day
across majority of the region. The light rain and pockets of drizzle
entering early this afternoon will shift eastward through late
afternoon and into this evening as the coastal surface low moves
farther away. Reduced visibilities should gradually improve for most
locations as well but the overcast cloud cover and lower ceilings
persist into and through tonight. The Southern Edwards Plateau into
the western Hill Country will be the exception where the ceilings
and visibility is forecast to degrade into and through the overnight
hours.

A cold front arrives overnight and an uptick in north winds may lag
initially but will increase into early to mid-morning on Thursday as
surface high pressure continues to build southward. Gusts in the 20
to 30 mph range will be possible by mid-morning. These north winds
will gradually dry out the surface dew points. This helps improve
any remaining reduced visibilities and lower ceilings. While the low
clouds thin out quite a bit, plenty of mid to high clouds remains
with the southwesterly flow aloft. Another cool day is expected with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 50s in the Hill Country to
the mid to upper 60s elsewhere.

Moderate to breezy northeasterly winds linger through much of
Thursday night, especially farther to the south. With the lower
surface dew points and the northerly flow allowing for the continued
cold air advection, a colder night will be expected with overnight
lows into the 30s over the Hill Country and into the 40s for the
rest of the area outside from locations immediately along and near
the Rio Grande. The main reason the Rio Grande will be warmest will
be the return of isentropic forcing with increasing southwesterly
flow aloft ahead of an upper level trough digging into and through
the Sonora and Chihuahua states of Mexico. This yields to a return
of thickening low clouds and light rain chances. The light rain may
potentially even reach to near San Antonio by sunrise Friday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Northerly winds and cool air near the surface combined with warm,
moist flow from the south just above this layer will result in a
continued warm air advection pattern across south central Texas on
Friday. The models tend to favor the better chance for rain and
higher rainfall amounts to the southern Edwards Plateau into the Hill
Country. With clouds and rain expected throughout most of the day,
highs will struggle to reach 50 degrees in the Hill Country, with
lower to mid 50s expected elsewhere. We have gone below the NBM
guidance with regards to temperatures on Friday. The pattern remains
fairly similar on Saturday as an upper level low pressure system
moves across northern central Mexico into far west Texas. We do
expect to see a coastal low move northward along the Texas coast and
this may allow for some slightly warmer air to drift northward into
the coastal plains. Otherwise, we will keep temperatures below normal
as clouds and precipitation chances continue. We could see some
thunderstorms as well given the increasingly active southwest flow
aloft.

Rain chances continue into Sunday as the upper level system opens
into a trough and gradually moves eastward across Texas. Rain chances
will slowly decrease from west to on Sunday, with most of the
precipitation moving east of I-35 during the evening hours, with
rain chances ending by early Monday morning. Winds will transition
from northeast to southwest and this should allow Sunday high
temperatures to nudge upward into the 60s. Sunny skies, dry weather
and southwest to westerly winds are anticipated on Monday, with highs
returning to the 70s for most locations.

Another fairly stout cold front is then set to move into the region
late Monday evening into early Tuesday morning with highs dropping
back down into the mid 50s to mid 60s Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning could drop to near freezing
across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, especially if
winds drop off toward sunrise Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will
remain below normal with mid 50s to lower 60s in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

A very tricky forecast with back and forth visibility concerns as
drizzle and low clouds persist this evening. Experience tells me
these LIFR ceilings at AUS and SAT will be tough to bring back into
the IFR category. For now, will opt to stick with LIFR CIGs through
the night, switching to IFR by mid to late morning Thursday at AUS
and SAT. Visibilities should improve after 12Z Thursday, however,
wouldn`t rule out some lower visby`s around sunrise Thursday, but
winds should start to pick up by late morning/early afternoon, doing
away with any visby issues. Ceilings will lift to MVFR by early to
mid afternoon at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              54  63  40  52 /   0   0   0  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  53  63  42  53 /   0   0   0  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     55  65  44  55 /   0   0  10  40
Burnet Muni Airport            50  60  37  49 /   0   0  10  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           53  67  50  53 /   0  10  30  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        52  61  38  50 /   0   0   0  40
Hondo Muni Airport             55  66  46  55 /   0   0  20  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        53  64  41  53 /   0   0  10  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   55  64  42  54 /  10   0  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       57  65  45  54 /   0   0  10  50
Stinson Muni Airport           57  67  48  55 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...MMM