Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
785 FXUS64 KEWX 161735 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm afternoons continue through early next week with mostly dry weather. - Slight chances of rain forecast for the Coastal Plains along the US Highway 77 corridor Friday and Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A gradual and shallow influx of Gulf moisture is currently pushing across our area and should continue to do so through Friday as a weak trough currently over South Texas drifts north. Dew points will be higher tonight compared to previous nights, leading to more morning cloudiness throughout South-Central Texas with temperatures in the 60s. Patchy fog is possible (about a 30 percent chance) mainly in low lying areas east of I-35 where winds are weaker and low-level moisture is higher. On Friday, the mid-level component of the aforementioned trough begins to track northeast, bringing some added divergence aloft atop a channel of moisture streaming north mainly along and east of Highway 77. This is expected to provide a localized chance for some showers with slight chances for thunder, and we continue to have about a 30 percent chance of rain along the US Highway 77 corridor mainly for Friday afternoon before the trough passes. Better chances NBM and HREF interquartile rain amounts are generally in the few hundredths of inches. The rest of South-Central Texas should remain dry and sunny for the day with highs again in the upper 80s to lower 90s. For Friday night, a more prominent trough and accompanying jet streak swings across New Mexico and starts to approach the area, prompting an increase in dew points and shallow warm air advection over our area. This will probably lead to the most mild and muggy night of the week with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s along and east of the I-35 corridor and along the Rio Grande, though those in the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau are still forecast to dip into the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The southern end of a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to swing out of the Four Corners region and across Texas on Saturday. Models are split into two scenarios, with one elongating and weakening this trough over the southwestern US and the other keeping the trough intact and neutrally tilted. Interestingly, this split is seen across synoptic, mesoscale, ensemble, and machine learning guidance, but the latter outcome has become better favored. In either case, the prospects for rain are not very encouraging given that the bulk of the synoptic ascent will be well to the northeast. Outside of low chances for rain over the US Highway 77 corridor from the southerly flow ahead of the trough Saturday afternoon to Saturday night, dry weather continues to be forecast for most of South-Central Texas this weekend. A combination of dry line and Pacific front are forecast to make a push eastward across the Edwards Plateau on Saturday, though forward progress is dependent on the strength of the passing trough. Ahead of those features, unseasonably warm temperatures are expected Saturday afternoon as a thermal ridge gets pulled ahead of the trough, leading to forecast highs in the low to mid 90s. Once the trough passes, surface high pressure takes its place and allows a secondary dry cold front to drop down from the north on Sunday with a brief bout of breezy northerly winds. This second push is more distinct in both of the aforementioned trough scenarios, though its forward progress will also be reflective of the strength of the trough. Given the uncertainties in the frontal positions, the NBM highlights as much as an 10 to 12 degree range of likely high temperatures for Sunday (compared to about 2 to 3 degrees on a more typical day). Keeping in mind those uncertainties, there is a better chance of a more noticeable cooldown to seasonable levels north of US Highway 90 where chances of highs below 85F increase from about 20 to 60 percent as you move farther north. Farther south, more unseasonable warmth will likely stay the course. Whatever thermal relief arrives Sunday won`t last long as subtropical ridging rebuilds Monday and brings highs back into the upper 80s to low 90s with southwesterly flow. While that ridge will keep rain chances low to non-existent for most, a more wavy jet stream next week should provide more opportunities to change up the streak of unseasonable warmth. A weak dry cold front is depicted in the ensemble means for Tuesday, which could help step down temperatures for the midweek. A cut-off low originating off California may also influence weather over our area later in the week. The presence of one or more of these features leads to some easing of daytime temperatures after Monday in the ensemble guidance, though overall values look to remain above average for late October. Given the dry vegetation across our area, locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible behind next week`s fronts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The MVFR ceiling at SAT should lift by the start of the upcoming period. Then all terminals will be VFR through the afternoon and evening. Winds will be from the southeast at around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts at DRT. Overnight MVFR ceilings will develop in the Austin and San Antonio areas although they will be intermittent at AUS. VFR conditions will return by around noon Friday. DRT will remain VFR through the entire period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 66 91 71 94 / 0 10 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 91 71 94 / 0 10 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 64 91 69 94 / 0 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 64 87 70 91 / 0 0 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 68 92 69 95 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 63 90 70 94 / 0 10 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 64 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 63 92 69 95 / 0 10 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 64 89 70 93 / 0 30 0 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 67 90 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 67 92 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...05