Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
286 FXUS64 KEWX 241104 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 604 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through the next week - Temperatures within a few degrees of seasonal averages to close out August && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY)... The Subtropical Ridge expands over Texas. While remaining centered near the Four Corners region today, the center begins to shift toward Texas on Monday. A drier (PWs below late August averages) and subsident airmass filters over our area. Heating and the seabreeze should generate isolated showers and thunderstorms near the Coastal Plains. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also possible over southern Rio Grande Plains/Winter Garden regions in proximity to our persistent shear axis. Temperatures will remain within a few degrees of late August averages. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... The Subtropical Ridge becomes centered overhead Tuesday and persists through Friday. A shortwave moving through an upper level trough over the eastern states will force a cold front across Texas into parts of our area Tuesday into Wednesday. Moisture levels increase due to moisture convergence across the frontal zone leading to an increase of rain chances across most areas. However, there remains uncertainty on the rain chances and amounts with the Ridge being nearly overhead and the lower quality of the moisture convergence. For now, will maintain the NBM POPs. The boundary washes out or retreats to the north late week marking a decrease in rain chances for Thursday and Friday. The Ridge shifts to the west next weekend allowing another cold front to move south into our area bringing an increase in rain chances. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of seasonal averages to close out August. && .AVIATION (12Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... VFR flight conditions are expected to continue across the region under a mainly clear to partly cloudy sky. Rain is not expected through the period outside from perhaps a brief stray shower. Winds will trend from the east to east-southeast each afternoon while conditions overnight into each morning trend with near calm speeds and a more variable flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 98 75 95 / 0 0 0 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 98 72 95 / 0 10 0 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 98 72 95 / 0 10 10 40 Burnet Muni Airport 72 94 72 92 / 0 0 0 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 98 77 95 / 0 10 10 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 97 73 95 / 0 0 0 30 Hondo Muni Airport 72 96 73 95 / 0 10 10 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 98 72 96 / 0 10 10 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 96 72 93 / 0 10 10 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 97 76 95 / 0 10 10 40 Stinson Muni Airport 75 99 77 96 / 0 10 10 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...04 Aviation...62