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252 FOUS30 KWBC 152027 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 427 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Day 1 Valid 16Z Tue Jul 15 2025 - 12Z Wed Jul 16 2025 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OVER A PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... 16Z Update... Introduced a moderate risk of excessive rainfall over portions of southeast Virginia in proximity to the overlap of 10 to 15 percent neighborhood probabilities shown by the 12Z HREF and areas with flash flood guidance now under half inch per hour/1 inch per 3 hour rates in places. The ensemble agreement supports...in general...the placement. 12Z upper air analysis showed the axis of deepest moisture in the area with satellite derived precipitable water values above 2 inches roughly coincident with the most hydrologically sensitive areas...enough ingredients were in place to warrant a targeted upgrade. Shifts in the synoptic pattern allowed for a subtle southward shift in the Slight Risk area away from the Mason Dixon line. Elsewhere...the on-going ERO did not require more than a few minor adjustments based on radar and satellite trends, Bann ...Florida... Potent and intensifying mid-level trough positioned just east of the FL peninsula tonight will translate slowly westward beneath a ridge positioned to its north. As this feature tracks back over the Gulf on Tuesday, a surface reflection is likely to develop (even if not Tuesday, eventually, and NHC has a 40% chance of development) which will enhance ascent. This feature will be accompanied by a pool of exceptional PWs of 2.25 to 2.5 inches, approaching +3 standard deviations above the climo mean, and elevated MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. As this tracks across the peninsula Tuesday, convection is expected both in the vicinity of the mid-level center, but also along any convergence bands that occur within the pivoting 850mb inflow. Due to the robust thermodynamics, rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are expected (50-70% chance of 2+"/hr according to HREF neighborhood probabilities), which through generally slow and chaotic storm motions will result in axes of 3-5" of rain, highest along the western coast or beneath the core of the mid-level center. This rain will occur atop areas that are more vulnerable due to heavy rainfall on Monday, and the SLGT risk remains with only modest cosmetic adjustments. ...Northern Rockies through the Upper Midwest... Expanding trough digging across the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains will drop steadily southward Tuesday in response to a potent shortwave digging out of Alberta, Canada. As this impulse gets embedded into the more pinched westerlies downstream, it will shed spokes of vorticity across the region to help enhance ascent already intensifying through height falls. This evolutions will also drag a cold front southward, but this front will oscillate north and south through D1 in response to the aforementioned shortwaves/vorticity spokes interacting with its baroclinic gradient. In fact, the latest guidance suggests that two distinct waves of low pressure will develop along this front and track eastward, leading to more focused heavy rain from convection within otherwise scattered thunderstorms. Although the broad MRGL risk remains, there appears to be two focused areas for heavier rainfall. The first is in a SW to NE oriented axis from Nebraska through the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Here, southerly 850mb inflow will surge out of the Central Plains at 20-25 kts and impinge into the front itself. This will additionally draw impressive thermodynamics (MUCAPE above 2000 J/kg and PWs above 1.75 inches, or the 97th percentile according to NAEFS) northward into the front. Where the maximum ascent occurs atop these thermodynamics, widespread convection with heavy rainfall rates of 1- 2"/hr are expected, and these storms have a high potential to train SW to NE along the front due to 0-6km mean winds that are progressive at 10-20 kts, but parallel to the boundary. Where these elements train, HREF 3-hr FFG exceedance probabilities peak above 40%, and the inherited SLGT risk remains. A second region of heavier rainfall is expected across MT. Here, persistent westerly mid-level flow atop the front combined with sloped frontogenesis will drive nearly continuous periods of rainfall. PWs in the region will be elevated above the 90th percentile according to NAEFS (0.75 to 1 inch), but accompanying instability is minimal. This suggests that most of the rainfall rates should be 0.5"/hr or less, so despite the impressive ECMWF EFI signal for heavy rain (EFI > 0.9), the excessive rainfall risk remains MRGL even if a few locations approach 3 inches of total rainfall. ...Mid-Atlantic and Southeast... Broad mid-level ridging centered off the Carolinas will continue to extend back to the west as far as the Southern Plains. This will persist the moist and unstable environment that has been plaguing much of the east for several days now, resulting in another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms. On Tuesday, the focus for convection will likely be along the decaying front which will drag slowly southeast as it wanes, reaching from the Ozarks to the Mid- Atlantic states, although with some oscillation north-south expected at times. Along this boundary, generally SW flow emerging from the Southern Plains will drive periodic impulses northeast, interacting with the front and providing locally enhanced focused ascent for convection. With PWs consistently above 2-2.25 inches and MUCAPE 1000-2000+ J/kg, storms that develop will be capable of producing efficient rain rates in excess of 2"/hr pretty much anywhere across the region. In general, coverage should be scattered and not support more than a MRGL risk of excessive rainfall. However, some locally focused convection beneath an impulse and aided by upslope 850mb inflow could produce heavier rainfall from the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic states. The guidance has continued to trend just a bit south overnight with the axis of heaviest rainfall, but with the front wavering through the day, and a general noted northward bias in the convection on Monday (compared to progs), changes to the inherited SLGT risk were modest and focused over more vulnerable areas from recent heavy rainfall. ...Southwest... The monsoon will become more active today as the elongated mid- level ridge over the Desert Southwest weakens in response to a potent vorticity maxima/shortwave drifting around its periphery. This feature will traverse westward beneath the ridge, crossing from the High Plains of NM through southern Arizona, and act upon an increasingly moist and unstable environment. PWs are progged to surge to as high as 1.25-1.5 inches, highest in southern AZ, coincident with a ribbon of MUCAPE of 1000 J/kg lifting northward as low-level flow surges out of the Rio Grande Valley and Mexico. The high-res CAMs are generally modest with convective coverage on Tuesday, but the recent HRRR and RRFS are much more aggressive with simulated reflectivity, and are likely the better solutions conceptually for the environment. As storms develop, generally in the higher terrain first, they will be slow movers with rain rates of 0.5-1"/hr. However, during peak instability, storms will congeal and feature at least subtle organization beneath the shortwave as bulk shear rises to 20-25 kts and storms coming off the terrain will move generally west-southwest and feature rain rates that may briefly exceed 1"/hr. The inherited SLGT risk is maintained and adjusted subtly. ...Central Texas... 850mb LLJ surging to 20-25 kts from the south and up through the Rio Grande Valley will again support overnight convection persisting into the new D1 period (after 12Z Tuesday). This will be accompanied by a shortwave/vorticity maxima lifting northward and favorable instability of more than 1000 J/kg to support at least scattered thunderstorms. The high-res CAMs are not aggressive with convective coverage after 12Z Tuesday, but even isolated activity will contain rain rates that could exceed 2"/hr, and Corfidi vectors that are aligned anti-parallel to the mean wind, combined with favorable upslope into the Hill Country on southerly winds could result in backbuilding/nearly stationary storms at times. With the area remaining extremely vulnerable due to repeated rounds of heavy rain in the past week, (FFG as low as 0.25"/3hrs) the SLGT risk was tailored but continued into Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... Weak impulses/MCVs embedded within the mean SW to NE mid-level flow will lift out of Texas and interact with a weakening stationary front over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ALthough in general, forcing for ascent will be modest, it will be locally enhanced where these impulses move atop the surface convergence associated with the front itself. Intense thermodynamics will remain across the area reflected by PWs approaching or exceeding 2 inches collocated with MUCAPE above 1000 J/kg to support rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr in convection. Mean winds of 10-15 kts suggest individual storms will be progressive, but some weak organization and some training along the front could enhance the duration of heavy rainfall. This appears most likely in the vicinity of southern IN where moisture confluence maximizes, creating a locally greater excessive rain risk, but the MRGL risk remains for isolated impacts today. Weiss Day 2 Valid 12Z Wed Jul 16 2025 - 12Z Thu Jul 17 2025 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... 2030Z Excessive Rainfall Discussion Update... Primary change with this issuance was the southward expansion of the Slight Risk area across the Central Plains to the western High Plains. The NCEP deterministic guidance showed the southward adjustment...but the ensembles tended to be less unanimous with the NMM core runs and ARW core runs clustering amongst themselves at somewhat different latitudes. Therefore...a somewhat broader corridor for the Slight and Marginal risk areas was preferred, Made a subtle westward shift compared with the previous outlook across the Gulf coast based primarily on the model guidance. Few changes needed elsewhere. Bann Previous Excessive Rainfall Discussion... ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave (now up to 40% chance of development from NHC) will continue to track slowly westward across the northern Gulf as the mid-level vorticity center remains trapped beneath an elongated ridge to the north. This will force the wave to track almost due west on Wednesday, but there remains quite a bit of latitudinal spread amongst the various global models as to where the vorticity center will track. This causes lowered confidence in the QPF and subsequent ERO for Wednesday, as the ridge to the north combined with generally weak shore-parallel 850mb flow (at least until the shortwave passes west of each area on the coast) could severely limit the amount of rain that can penetrate onshore. However, convection that does develop onshore will benefit from PWs above 2.25 inches (potentially approaching 2.5 inches) and MUCAPE of 2000 J/kg, supporting rainfall rates above 2"/hr. With some training along the coast likely, this could produce 2-3" of rainfall in some areas, although the exact placement of the heaviest rain is still uncertain. At this time the MRGL risk remains for the Gulf Coast, but if this system organizes more quickly or models form a consensus for a more northward track, a SLGT risk may be needed eventually for Wednesday. ...Central High Plains eastward through the Mid-Atlantic... Broad and expansive mid-level ridge centered off the Carolinas will continue to dominate the synoptic pattern with return flow around this ridge promoting a continuation of the exceptional moisture and instability plaguing much of the CONUS. Wednesday will be no exception as a moisture plume characterized by PWs of 1.5 to 2.25 inches stretches from Kansas through New England, coincident with pools of MUCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. Within this axis of impressive thermodynamics, a stationary front from Monday will dissipate as a secondary front approaches from the Northwest late Wednesday night. Additionally, within the mid-level return flow, multiple shortwave impulses will rotate northeast around the ridge to provide additional ascent. Where these impulses interact with the low-level baroclinic boundary, enhanced rainfall from more organized convection will result. This is most likely in two areas on Wednesday. The first is across Pennsylvania/Ohio where a potent shortwave impulse is progged to track overhead during peak heating. This will not only drive locally enhanced ascent, but also accelerate bulk shear to 30-35 kts forcing better storm organization. 850mb inflow across this area will also strengthen, potentially reaching 30-35 kts which will be 1.5 times the mean 0-6km wind, a signal for strong convergence. Although storms that develop should remain progressive to the east, multiple rounds are likely, each one containing rainfall rates of around 2"/hr, leading to total rainfall of 2-4" in some areas. This falling atop saturated soils from recent heavy rainfall will likely result in instances of flash flooding. The other area will be across the Central Plains and Upper Midwest, especially focused from northern Kansas through Wisconsin where a multiple MCS driven by convectively enhanced shortwaves will move across these areas with focused heavy rainfall. ALthough there continues to be some latitudinal spread with the placement of these MCSs which will be the primary driver of the flash flood risk D2, a slowly veering 30-40kt LLJ emerging from the Southern Plains will provide the focus for development through convergence and isentropic lift. Through this veering late Wednesday night, some training/backbuilding is also anticipated (Corfidi vectors point directly against the mean flow by 06Z Thursday) suggesting enhanced rainfall totals from rates that will be 1-2"/hr if not locally higher. The inherited SLGT risk was modified for the new guidance and positioned across the best overlap of REFS (where available), GEFS, and ECENS 3"/24hr probabilities exist ...Desert Southwest... Increasing PWs on southerly low-level flow emerging from the Rio Grande and Mexico is expected again on Wednesday, with PWs surging to as high as 1.5 inches over southern Arizona. This is higher and more expansive than what is progged for D1. However, with the expected widespread convective coverage continuing late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, re-destabilization may be limited, which is reflected by degraded CAPE > 500 J/kg probabilities from the GEFS that are below 40% except along the immediate NM/AZ border. Additionally, forcing for ascent through shortwave activity appears displaced a bit farther north and less intense as Tuesday, so while any storms that develop Wednesday would be slow moving and have brief 0.5+"/hr rates, the MRGL risk category was maintained. Weiss Day 3 Valid 12Z Thu Jul 17 2025 - 12Z Fri Jul 18 2025 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... 2030Z Excessive Rainfall Discussion Update... Primary change was to shift the Slight Risk a bit to the west in concert with the large scale guidance. Given uncertainty in timing...remain reluctant to upgrade to a Moderate risk this cycle but it is not entirely out of the question towards the end of the Day 3 period. Except for a few minor adjustments elsewhere...the on-going outlook seemed to be in good shape. Bann Previous Excessive Rainfall Discussion ...Gulf Coast... A disturbance moving across the northern Gulf (NHC probability of development 40%) will continue to drift westward on Thursday. While there is still considerable temporal and spatial spread among the various models, it is likely that a weakness will develop around the Atlantic ridge to allow a slow NW drift of this feature towards the LA coast on D3. With PWs expected to be 2.25 to 2.5 inches, and forcing for ascent intensifying as the system consolidates, heavy rainfall rates of 2+"/hr will be likely within convection/heavy stratiform rain. Despite uncertainty as to how far north the precipitation will spread by 12Z Friday due to subsidence/drier air to the north within the ridge, a consensus of the guidance still pushes some heavier focused rainfall into southern LA, prompting the SLGT risk from around Mobile Bay, AL to the LA/TX border. Additional adjustments are likely as the forecast becomes refined in the next few days. ...Central Plains through the Northeast... Return flow around an elongated Atlantic ridge which will spread as far west as the Southern Plains will maintain broad SW winds and a moist/unstable environment across a large portion of the country. Into this favorable environment, a cold front will slowly push southeast, extending from New England to the Central High Plains by the end of the period. Ascent along this front into the robust thermodynamics will support at least scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain rates. At this time the signals for any organized convection leading to a higher flash flood risk is muted, so a broad MRGL risk remains. However, with weak impulses moving through the flow and interacting with the baroclinic zone, it is possible some areas may be upgraded to SLGT risks with future issuances as guidance converges on any locally enhanced rainfall threats. ...Southwest... Elongated ridge from the Atlantic will spread westward into the Southern Plains and Four Corners, while a closed low pushes north from Baja into southern California. Between these two features, southerly flow will become pinched, while weak impulses embedded within the flow drift northward. PWs will climb to broadly above 1.25 inches, highest in AZ, but the environment at this time appears to be lacking sufficient instability for widespread monsoons thunderstorms. Still, the southerly flow, high PW, and weak impulses aloft will support convection, especially where flow upslopes into terrain features. Storm motions will be slow, and rain rates above 0.5"/hr are probable, so isolated flash flooding, especially in vulnerable terrain or across burn scars/urban areas, is possible. Weiss Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt