Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
405 FOUS30 KWBC 300809 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 409 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Day 1 Valid 12Z Mon Sep 30 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA, VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... The latest guidance continues to show the south/southeast trend of where the heaviest rain is expected to occur Monday across the Virginias. During this time the slow moving upper low will be transferring its energy to a coastal low feature located offshore Virginia and North Carolina. This will likely lead to a prolonged local enhancement in hourly rainfall rates near the Blue Ridge of 1 to 1.5 inches/hour during this period. Soils near saturation from recent rains will keep the threat for flash flooding elevated for much of this region. A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall remains in effect for extreme eastern West Virginia, northern/central Virginia, and north-central North Carolina. The Marginal Risk was extended to cover much of coastal North Carolina in association with the developing coastal low potentially locally increasing rainfall totals due to slow- moving convection especially on the western side of Pamlico Sound. Campbell Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Campbell Day 3 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt