484
FOUS30 KWBC 050052
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
752 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Day 1
Valid 01Z Thu Dec 05 2024 - 12Z Thu Dec 05 2024

...East Texas/Louisiana...

There continues to be broad warm air/moist advection atop a weak
frontal wave over southeast TX which is resulting in broken areas
of moderate to locally heavy shower activity across portions of
eastern TX and LA. An axis of MUCAPE values reaching into the 500
to 1000 J/kg range is noted currently over eastern TX which will
gradually edge over into areas of western and eventually south-
central LA later tonight. This coupled with at least modest
moisture convergence and sustained isentropic ascent may support
some locally stronger elevated convective elements yielding some
spotty 1"/hour rainfall rates. However, the lack of persistence of
these rates and the disorganized character of the rainfall pattern
overall should keep the additional rainfall totals rather modest
with perhaps some localized 2 to 3 inch amounts overnight. While
the threat for flash flooding is non-zero, based on the dry
antecedent conditions and lack of a heavier rainfall signal, the
probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than
5 percent.

Orrison


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 05 2024 - 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth/Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024 - 12Z Sat Dec 07 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth/Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt