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FOUS30 KWBC 271556
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1056 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Nov 27 2025 - 12Z Fri Nov 28 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

An instance of urban flash flooding cannot be ruled out across
portions of southeastern Florida this afternoon. An approaching
cold front will trigger a few outflow-driven thunderstorms that may
exhibit relatively slow storm motions due to weak wind fields below
500mb. 1.6 inch PW values and 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE in the pre-frontal
airmass both support robust updrafts with locally heavy rainfall.
A conditional threat will exist for spotty 1 inch/hr rain rates to
impact urban areas between Miami and West Palm Beach. The isolated
and conditional nature of this threat precludes any introduction of
probabilities/risk areas for this outlook.

Cook

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN GULF AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...


Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to fire up across
Texas and portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley during this
period as warm air advects northward ahead of an approaching cold
front. Areal averages of 1 to locally 3 inches will be possible,
with the best potential for the highest amount to focus near the
Gulf Coast. A Marginal Risk area is in effect for eastern Texas,
southeast Oklahoma, southern/central Arkansas, western Mississippi
and most of Louisiana.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt