Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
860 FOUS30 KWBC 060816 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 416 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 06 2025 - 12Z Mon Jul 07 2025 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS AS WELL AS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...Carolinas/Southern Virginia... Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast to move inland across northeastern South Carolina early in the period and weaken as it moves into central North Carolina later today into the overnight. The growing consensus of the model QPF has an "occluded look" to it, with the heaviest amounts setting up west of the track. Not much change was made to the previous Slight Risk area, with minor adjustments based on the new HREF guidance. This area reflects the HREF higher neighborhood probabilities for 3+ inches, which extend from parts of the Pee Dee region and north-central SC through central NC into far south-central VA. ...Central Texas... Fueled by a lingering axis of deep moisture (2 to 2.25 PWs according to recent runs of the RAP) and weak mid level energy drawn south by an upstream ridge, concerns remain for additional heavy rains and flooding across portions of North Texas back into South-Central Texas and the Hill Country. QPF has trended upward within the highlighted region, with the HREF once again showing a strong signal for locally heavy amounts over 3 inches within the Slight Risk area. These amounts would easily exceed FFGs over those areas recently impacted by heavy amounts. Therefore, will continue to monitor for the potential need to upgrade to a Moderate Risk for parts of the region. ...Upper Great Lakes to the Central Plains/Ozarks... A series of shortwaves will move through a broad upper trough centered over the northern Plains, pushing a wavy cold front, that extends from the upper Great Lakes back into the central Plains, farther south. A deep moisture pool ahead of the front (PWs over 2 inches in some locations) will fuel widespread shower and storm coverage. Overnight guidance indicates that in addition to the ample moisture, favorable upper jet dynamics and some potential for storm training, will contribute to a greater threat for heavier amounts (2-3 inches) across parts of Lower Michigan. However, locally heavy amounts, along with isolated flooding concerns, cannot be ruled out further southeast along and ahead of the front. ...Central and Southern High Plains into the Southern Rockies... Moist upslope flow will contribute to afternoon storm initiation along the high terrain, with the guidance continuing to present a notable signal for organized development contributing to heavy amounts across portions of western Kansas and Nebraska. The overnight HREF indicates 2-3 inches are likely for parts of the region. Storms are expected to remain less organized further to south, but may fire and produce isolated flooding concerns across the more vulnerable parts of central and eastern New Mexico. ...Southern Louisiana/Mississippi... Models show an upper low over the northeastern Gulf retrograding westward back along the Gulf Coast. This will bring increasing rain chances to the region, with the potential for heavy amounts. A Marginal Risk was maintained for parts of southern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi, where the HREF presents a strong signal for amounts over 2 inches. Pereira Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 07 2025 - 12Z Tue Jul 08 2025 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS, AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY... ...Eastern North Carolina to Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey... Although the surface circulation may no longer be well-defined, the mid level remnants and an its associated plume of deeper moisture are expected to lift north from eastern North Carolina along the Mid-Atlantic Coast ahead of an upstream trough, bringing the potential for locally heavy rain and perhaps some isolated flooding concerns from eastern North Carolina to eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. ...Northeast to Mid Mississippi Valley/Ozarks... A frontal boundary will continue to slide farther east across the Northeast this period. Deep moisture ahead of the boundary (PWs 1.75-2 inches and 2-3 std dev above normal), along with favorable upper jet forcing are expected to contribute to some organized heavier amounts from western and northern New York into parts of northern New England. Less organized activity is expected farther southeast. However, once again locally heavy amounts and isolated flooding concerns cannot be ruled out for areas back through the Ohio Valley into the mid Mississippi Valley and Ozark region. ...Southern Plains... The latest HREF shows that activity developing over parts of Texas on Day 1 may continue into Day 2, producing additional heavy amounts and prolonging flooding concerns across parts of Texas including portions of South-Central Texas and the Hill Country northeastward through North Texas... ...Upper Midwest to the Southwest... Amplifying southerly low level winds over the Plains will support increasing moisture across the central into the northern Plains. This moisture along with mid level energy moving out into the region, will support widespread showers and thunderstorms, with the guidance showing a signal for organized activity developing over the central High Plains. Forecast confidence is limited by significant model spread in the details. However, the potential for at least isolated flash flooding concerns cannot be ruled out. Farther to the south, activity again is expected to be less organized. But again, cannot rule out at least an isolated flash flooding concern, especially across vulnerable portions of eastern and central New Mexico. Pereira Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 08 2025 - 12Z Wed Jul 09 2025 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE MIDWEST AND THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Northeast through the Ohio Valley... A cold front will continue to slide slowly southeast across the Northeast and the Mid Atlantic. Deepening moisture ahead of the boundary (increasing above 2 inches in many locations) will raise the potential for at least locally heavy amounts and isolated flooding to occur. ...Midwest to the Southern High Plains/Rockies... An upper level shortwave and associated axis of deeper moisture may produce storms with locally heavy amounts from the mid Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes region back through the mid Mississippi and lower Missouri valleys into the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low level upslope flow may produce another round of showers and storms developing along the southern Rockies into the High Plains. Pereira Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt