542
FOUS30 KWBC 100840
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 10 2025 - 12Z Sat Jan 11 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

The center of a surface low pressure system will be making its way
northeastward just inland from the Central Gulf Coast
region today. Models still depict a signal for a period of strong
on-shore moisture transport and deep layer warm cloud processes to
the east of the low pressure center which may help supprort the 1+
inch rainfall rates showb by the 10/00Z HREF neighborhood
probabilities. On the other hand...the overall instability looks to
be meager and cell motion should be progressive enough to preclude
more than isolated instances of excessive rainfall mainly in the
urbanized areas. The NBM, HREF, NBM and WPC deterministic forecasts all
maintained fairly good continuity with previous guidance...so few
changes needed to the previously issued Marginal risk area.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 11 2025 - 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025 - 12Z Mon Jan 13 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt